Upside case
Bull case
$56+83.6%
KDP would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering KDP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$33
+5.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $56
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.8B
KDP price targets
Three scenarios for where KDP stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $31
Bear
$27
Base
$43
Bull
$56
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$43+39.3%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-12.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push KDP down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
KDP · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Non-AlcoholicDecember year-end
Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company that operates through coffee systems and packaged drinks. It generates revenue primarily from coffee systems—including brewers and K-Cup pods—and packaged beverages like Dr Pepper and Snapple, with additional income from beverage concentrates and Latin American operations. The company's key advantage is its dual-moat system combining Keurig's proprietary single-serve coffee ecosystem with Dr Pepper's established brand portfolio and distribution network.
Market Cap
$41.8B
Revenue TTM
$16.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
10.8%
KDP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.49
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.54/$0.54
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.60/$0.59
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.37
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.49/$0.49 | +1.0% | $4.2B/$4.1B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54/$0.54 | +0.6% | $4.3B/$4.2B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.60/$0.59 | +1.9% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.39/$0.37 | +4.7% | $4.0B/$3.8B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.7B
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$23.6B
+19.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.75
+30.3% YoY
FY2
$2.07
+18.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 9.3%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.55
Expected Revenue
$7.3B
KDP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KDP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
LRB
69.9%
+9.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
87.3%
+8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
LRB is the largest disclosed segment at 69.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 87.3%, up 8.5% YoY.
KDP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $35 — implies +15.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KDP
20.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
18% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
KDP
20.1x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+6% premium
vs KDP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.1x
vs
5Y Average
26.1x
23% discount
Forward PE
13.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-28%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-18%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+6%
5Y Avg
26.1x
-23%
PEG Ratio
1.92x
S&P 500
1.66x
+16%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
0%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-15%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+17%
5Y Avg
16.7x
-23%
Price/FCF
27.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+34%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+82%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-7%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-19%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+186%
5Y Avg
3.2x
-22%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
S&P 500
1.91%
+56%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-3%
5Y Avg
2.47%
+21%
| Metric | KDP | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg KDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.5x | 18.8x-28% | 14.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.1x | 24.4x-18% | 18.9x | 26.1x-23% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.92x | 1.66x+16% | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9x | 15.2x-15% | 11.1x+17% | 16.7x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 27.8x | 20.7x+34% | 15.3x+82% | 29.9x |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-19% | 0.9x+186% | 3.2x-22% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.98% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.47% |
KDP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKDP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
KDP generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 9.3% margin — returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
53.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.6× FCF
~9.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
60.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKDP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Integration challenges
The JDE Peet's integration is messy, posing operational and financial risks.
High Risk
Elevated debt levels
The company is contending with elevated debt levels, which could strain financial flexibility.
Medium
Commodity cost pressure
Coffee bean costs are running hot, potentially squeezing margins.
Medium
Stock performance decline
The stock has fallen significantly from its peak, reflecting investor concerns.
Lower
Valuation discount
The stock's forward P/E is considered cheap, but risks may justify the discount.
Lower
Market share risks
Despite growing Dr Pepper market share, competitive pressures remain a concern.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KDP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong sales growth
Q1 2026 net sales increased by 8.1%, indicating robust revenue performance.
Strategic partnerships
Expanded Starbucks K-Cup partnership enhances product offerings and market reach.
Successful acquisitions
JDE Peet's acquisition closed in April 2026, strengthening the company's portfolio.
Innovative product lineup
Keurig offers a variety of coffee makers and beverages with advanced brewing technology.
Discount promotions
30% off select products drives consumer purchases and boosts sales.
Resilient beverage segment
Cold-beverage engine remains strong, balancing coffee segment turnaround efforts.
Future corporate split
Potential separation into beverage and coffee companies could unlock shareholder value.
Positive earnings outlook
Reaffirmed 2026 sales and EPS guidance supports near-term growth confidence.
Diverse product range
Offers teas, hot cocoa, and specialty drinks, catering to a broad consumer base.
Convenience and reliability
User-friendly designs and consistent brewing process enhance customer satisfaction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KDP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.76
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.88
+23.7% from the low
52-Week High
$35.94
-14.4% from the high
1 Month
+4.52%
3 Month
+13.63%
YTD
+10.9%
1 Year
-7.4%
3Y CAGR
-1.2%
5Y CAGR
-2.3%
10Y CAGR
+7.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KDP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.5x
vs 18.7x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.2%
vs +4.6% median
+250% above peer median
Net Margin
10.8%
vs 15.6% median
-30% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KDP KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $41.8B | 13.5x | +16.2% | 10.8% | Buy | +5.7% |
PEP PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $194.1B | 16.4x | +4.6% | 8.8% | Hold | +18.2% |
KO KO The Coca-Cola Company | $341.7B | 24.3x | +2.7% | 27.8% | Buy | +8.5% |
MNS MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $89.3B | 39.9x | +9.4% | 23.1% | Buy | -0.8% |
CEL CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $7.9B | 18.7x | +11.4% | 5.9% | Buy | +71.5% |
FIZ FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $3.4B | 18.1x | +2.4% | 15.6% | Sell | -6.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KDP Dividend and Capital Return
KDP returns 3.0% total yield, led by a 2.98% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.98%
Payout Ratio
60.1%
How KDP Splits Its Return
Div 2.98%
Dividend 2.98%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
8.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9M
Estimated Shares Retired
292.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.92 | +5.1% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +7.4% | 2.5% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $0.82 | +6.9% | 1.5% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $0.76 | +13.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsKDP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $33, implying +5.7% from the current price of $31. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $56.
02What is the KDP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KDP is $33 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $38 (+23.5% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (-9.0%). The base case model target is $43.
03Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock overvalued in 2026?
KDP trades at 13.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KDP in 2026 are: (1) Integration challenges — The JDE Peet's integration is messy, posing operational and financial risks. (2) Elevated debt levels — The company is contending with elevated debt levels, which could strain financial flexibility. (3) Commodity cost pressure — Coffee bean costs are running hot, potentially squeezing margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KDP will report consensus revenue of $19.7B (+16.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.75 (+30.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.6B in revenue.
06When does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) report its next earnings?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.55 and revenue of $7.3B. Over recent quarters, KDP has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. generate?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.3%. KDP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($9M TTM).