Upside case
Bull case
$45+56.1%
KDP would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering KDP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
+11.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $45
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $39.3B
KDP price targets
Three scenarios for where KDP stock could go
Current
~$29
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $29
Bear
$23
Base
$34
Bull
$45
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$34+18.5%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$23-19.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push KDP down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
KDP · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Non-AlcoholicDecember year-end
Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company that operates through coffee systems and packaged drinks. It generates revenue primarily from coffee systems—including brewers and K-Cup pods—and packaged beverages like Dr Pepper and Snapple, with additional income from beverage concentrates and Latin American operations. The company's key advantage is its dual-moat system combining Keurig's proprietary single-serve coffee ecosystem with Dr Pepper's established brand portfolio and distribution network.
Market Cap
$39.3B
Revenue TTM
$16.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
10.8%
KDP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.49
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.54/$0.54
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.60/$0.59
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.37
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.49/$0.49 | +1.0% | $4.2B/$4.1B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54/$0.54 | +0.6% | $4.3B/$4.2B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.60/$0.59 | +1.9% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.39/$0.37 | +4.7% | $4.0B/$3.8B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.3B
+20.0% YoY
FY2
$21.7B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.70
+26.3% YoY
FY2
$1.81
+6.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 9.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
KDP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KDP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
LRB
69.9%
+9.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
87.3%
+8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
LRB is the largest disclosed segment at 69.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 87.3%, up 8.5% YoY.
KDP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $42 — implies +45.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
45.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KDP
18.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
25% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
KDP
18.9x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
In line with benchmark
vs KDP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.9x
vs
5Y Average
26.1x
27% discount
Forward PE
12.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
-15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
-25%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
-1%
5Y Avg
26.1x
-27%
PEG Ratio
1.81x
S&P 500
1.72x
+5%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
-3%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-19%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+8%
5Y Avg
16.7x
-26%
Price/FCF
26.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+24%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+75%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-13%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+186%
5Y Avg
3.2x
-27%
Dividend Yield
3.17%
S&P 500
1.87%
+70%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
+14%
5Y Avg
2.47%
+28%
| Metric | KDP | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg KDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.7x | 19.1x-33% | 15.0x-15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.9x | 25.1x-25% | 19.1x | 26.1x-27% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.81x | 1.72x | 1.87x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4x | 15.2x-19% | 11.5x | 16.7x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 26.1x | 21.1x+24% | 14.9x+75% | 29.9x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-24% | 0.8x+186% | 3.2x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.17% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 2.47% |
KDP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKDP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
KDP generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 9.3% margin — returns 3.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
53.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.6× FCF
~9.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.2%
Dividend
3.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
60.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKDP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Increased Debt Load
The acquisition of JDE Peet's has significantly raised KDP’s debt, potentially leading to higher interest expenses, margin contraction, and a more leveraged capital structure that could affect credit ratings and financial flexibility.
High Risk
JDE Peet's Acquisition Execution
Success of the JDE Peet's deal hinges on tight execution and disciplined financial management; concerns about the premium paid and the added debt could undermine expected synergies.
High Risk
Liquidity Constraints
KDP’s low cash‑to‑assets ratio signals limited financial flexibility, raising the risk that cash flows may not cover obligations, especially amid debt maturities.
Medium
Integration Costs
One‑time integration costs associated with the JDE Peet's acquisition could pressure cash flows for several years, impacting short‑term profitability.
Medium
Shrinking Operating Margin
KDP has experienced a declining operating margin, raising questions about its expense base and the sustainability of profitability.
Lower
Capital Efficiency
Historically, KDP has been mediocre at investing in profitable growth initiatives, reflected in a low Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), limiting future upside.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KDP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Undervaluation Potential
KDP is trading near $25-$26, well below its 52‑week high of around $36. Analysts estimate a fair value of $35.29, implying an upside of over 45% from current levels.
Robust Brand Portfolio
The company owns or licenses more than 125 brands, including Keurig, Dr Pepper, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Canada Dry, and Snapple. It holds leadership positions across soft drinks, specialty coffee, tea, and water categories in North America.
Revenue and EPS Growth
KDP has posted revenue growth that beats estimates in recent quarters, and its FY2026 guidance signals continued earnings per share expansion.
Dividend Yield Stability
The stock offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.5‑3.6%, providing shareholders a steady return even if the share price remains range‑bound.
Opportunity for Structural Re‑rating
Bulls believe the firm is on the verge of a structural re‑rating if it can manage its recent debt load and successfully execute integration plans following a significant deal.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KDP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$28.92
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.88
+16.3% from the low
52-Week High
$35.94
-19.5% from the high
1 Month
+12.53%
3 Month
+3.25%
YTD
+4.3%
1 Year
-16.1%
3Y CAGR
-4.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.3%
10Y CAGR
+6.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KDP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.7x
vs 20.9x median
-39% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.0%
vs +4.1% median
+392% above peer median
Net Margin
10.8%
vs 15.6% median
-30% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KDP KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $39.3B | 12.7x | +20.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +11.8% |
PEP PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $211.9B | 17.9x | +4.1% | 8.8% | Hold | +12.2% |
KO KO The Coca-Cola Company | $337.8B | 24.1x | +2.0% | 27.8% | Buy | +9.2% |
MNS MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $74.1B | 33.6x | +10.9% | 23.0% | Buy | +12.6% |
CEL CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $8.6B | 20.9x | +42.8% | 4.3% | Buy | +76.0% |
FIZ FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $3.3B | 17.4x | +1.2% | 15.6% | Sell | -2.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KDP Dividend and Capital Return
KDP returns 3.2% total yield, led by a 3.17% dividend, raised 7 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.17%
Payout Ratio
60.1%
How KDP Splits Its Return
Div 3.17%
Dividend 3.17%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
8.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9M
Estimated Shares Retired
311.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.92 | +5.1% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +7.4% | 2.5% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $0.82 | +6.9% | 1.5% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $0.76 | +13.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsKDP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying +11.8% from the current price of $29. The bear case scenario is $23 and the bull case is $45.
02What is the KDP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KDP is $32 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $38 (+31.4% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (-3.2%). The base case model target is $34.
03Is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock overvalued in 2026?
KDP trades at 12.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KDP in 2026 are: (1) Increased Debt Load — The acquisition of JDE Peet's has significantly raised KDP’s debt, potentially leading to higher interest expenses, margin contraction, and a more leveraged capital structure that could affect credit ratings and financial flexibility. (2) JDE Peet's Acquisition Execution — Success of the JDE Peet's deal hinges on tight execution and disciplined financial management; concerns about the premium paid and the added debt could undermine expected synergies. (3) Liquidity Constraints — KDP’s low cash‑to‑assets ratio signals limited financial flexibility, raising the risk that cash flows may not cover obligations, especially amid debt maturities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KDP will report consensus revenue of $20.3B (+20.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.70 (+26.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.7B in revenue.
06When does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for KDP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. generate?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.3%. KDP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.2% yield) and share repurchases ($9M TTM).