Upside case
Bull case
$87+17.3%
KNX would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 38x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 36 covering KNX
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$76
+2.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$42 – $87
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.0B
KNX price targets
Three scenarios for where KNX stock could go
Current
~$74
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $74
Bear
$42
Base
$66
Bull
$87
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$66-10.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing KNX — at roughly 34x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$42-43.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 17x multiple contraction could push KNX down roughly 44% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
KNX · NYSEIndustrialsTruckingDecember year-end
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is one of North America's largest truckload carriers, operating a massive fleet of tractors and trailers to transport goods across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. The company generates revenue primarily from its Trucking segment — which includes irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, and flatbed services — supplemented by Logistics, Less-than-truckload (LTL), and Intermodal operations that provide brokerage and freight management. Its competitive advantage lies in its scale — operating over 18,000 tractors and 67,000 trailers — which creates network density, operational efficiency, and pricing power in a fragmented industry.
Market Cap
$12.0B
Revenue TTM
$7.5B
Net Income TTM
$34M
Net Margin
0.5%
KNX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-11.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.34
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.37
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.36
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.09/$0.09
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.34 | +2.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32/$0.37 | -13.2% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31/$0.36 | -13.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.09/$0.09 | +0.0% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.1B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$8.6B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.87
+319.0% YoY
FY2
$1.47
+68.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 17.8%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.48
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
KNX beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
KNX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Revenue, excluding truckload fuel surcharge
89.6%
+1.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Revenue, excluding truckload fuel surcharge is the largest disclosed segment at 89.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 1.2% YoY.
KNX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $76 — implies +2.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KNX
180.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+639% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
KNX
180.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+607% premium
vs KNX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
180.8x
vs
5Y Average
53.6x
+237% premium
Forward PE
38.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+105%
Industrials
21.2x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
180.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+639%
Industrials
25.6x
+607%
5Y Avg
53.6x
+237%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-7%
Industrials
13.9x
+1%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+55%
Price/FCF
15.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-24%
Industrials
20.0x
-21%
5Y Avg
35.9x
-56%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-48%
Industrials
1.6x
+3%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+25%
Dividend Yield
0.97%
S&P 500
1.91%
-49%
Industrials
1.21%
-20%
5Y Avg
1.02%
-5%
| Metric | KNX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg KNX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.5x | 18.8x+105% | 21.2x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 180.8x | 24.4x+639% | 25.6x+607% | 53.6x+237% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 9.1x+55% |
| Price/FCF | 15.8x | 20.7x-24% | 20.0x-21% | 35.9x-56% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-48% | 1.6x | 1.3x+25% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.97% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.02% |
KNX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKNX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
KNX generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 17.8% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$303M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
178.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
162M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKNX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Margin pressure
Revenue growth is offset by inflation and oil costs squeezing margins.
High Risk
Valuation concerns
Valuation appears stretched despite operational challenges.
Medium
Debt issuance risk
Upsized $1.3B convertible notes offering may dilute equity or increase leverage.
Medium
Freight demand uncertainty
Bull case relies on freight demand stabilization and pricing recovery, which are not guaranteed.
Lower
Execution risk
Cost synergies from fleet improvements and network optimization may fail to materialize.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KNX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Freight demand stabilization
The bull case assumes that freight demand will stabilize, which is a key driver for Knight-Swift's recovery and growth.
Pricing recovery
A recovery in pricing is expected to improve Knight-Swift's revenue and profitability, supporting the bullish thesis.
Cost synergies realization
Knight-Swift is anticipated to realize cost synergies from fleet improvements and network optimization, enhancing operational efficiency.
Multiples expansion potential
Analysts project that the company's valuation multiples could expand to the high end, driven by improved operational and financial performance.
Strong operational positioning
Improving TL utilization and LTL freight mix indicate Knight-Swift's stronger operational positioning, supporting a Buy rating.
Earnings and revenue growth
Knight-Swift's earnings and revenue growth rates, along with positive analyst forecasts, highlight its growth potential compared to peers.
Capital market activity
The company's recent $1.3 billion convertible notes offering reflects its ability to access capital markets for growth and strategic initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KNX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$74.12
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.63
+91.9% from the low
52-Week High
$82.86
-10.5% from the high
1 Month
+7.00%
3 Month
+40.01%
YTD
+41.9%
1 Year
+73.1%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
+10.6%
10Y CAGR
+10.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KNX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.5x
vs 42.8x median
-10% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs +3.4% median
+131% above peer median
Net Margin
0.5%
vs 1.7% median
-74% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KNX KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $12.0B | 38.5x | +7.9% | 0.5% | Buy | +2.8% |
WER WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $2.4B | 42.8x | +7.0% | -0.5% | Hold | -2.4% |
HTL HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | $1.1B | 694.2x | -1.0% | -6.5% | Hold | -10.0% |
MRT MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | $1.4B | 56.2x | -0.8% | 2.0% | Hold | +33.5% |
SND SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | $6.3B | 38.8x | +3.6% | 1.7% | Hold | -3.3% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $46.1B | 40.5x | +3.4% | 18.6% | Hold | -1.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KNX Dividend and Capital Return
KNX returns 1.0% total yield, led by a 0.97% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.97%
Payout Ratio
1.8%
How KNX Splits Its Return
Div 0.97%
Dividend 0.97%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.5%
5Y Div CAGR
17.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
162M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.72 | +12.5% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.64 | +14.3% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2023 | $0.56 | +16.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2022 | $0.48 | +26.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsKNX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $76, implying +2.8% from the current price of $74. The bear case scenario is $42 and the bull case is $87.
02What is the KNX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KNX is $76 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $94 (+26.8% from today), and the low-end target is $63 (-15.0%). The base case model target is $66.
03Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) stock overvalued in 2026?
KNX trades at 38.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KNX in 2026 are: (1) Margin pressure — Revenue growth is offset by inflation and oil costs squeezing margins. (2) Valuation concerns — Valuation appears stretched despite operational challenges. (3) Debt issuance risk — Upsized $1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KNX will report consensus revenue of $8.1B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.87 (+319.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.6B in revenue.
06When does Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) report its next earnings?
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $0.48 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, KNX has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. generate?
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.8%. KNX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).