Upside case
Bull case
$396+97.6%
ODFL would need investors to value it at roughly 75x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 38x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
36
analysts
11 bullish · 4 bearish · 36 covering ODFL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
21
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$208
+3.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$121 – $396
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.8B
ODFL price targets
Three scenarios for where ODFL stock could go
Current
~$201
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $201
Bear
$121
Base
$229
Bull
$396
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$229+14.1%
At 44x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$121-39.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push ODFL down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
ODFL · NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingDecember year-end
Old Dominion Freight Line is a leading less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier that transports smaller freight shipments across regional, inter-regional, and national routes in North America. It generates revenue primarily from LTL freight services — supplemented by value-added offerings like container drayage and truckload brokerage — with pricing based on shipment weight, distance, and service level. The company's competitive advantage stems from its extensive, company-owned terminal network and reputation for superior on-time delivery performance, which creates customer loyalty and pricing power.
Market Cap
$41.8B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
18.6%
ODFL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.27/$1.28
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.28/$1.22
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.06
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.05
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.27/$1.28 | -0.8% | $1.4B/$1.4B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.28/$1.22 | +4.9% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09/$1.06 | +2.8% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.14/$1.05 | +8.6% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.5B
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$5.6B
+1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.13
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$5.51
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$955M
FCF Margin: 17.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ODFL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ODFL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
L T L Service Revenue
99.1%
-5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
L T L Service Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 99.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.5% YoY.
ODFL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $166 — implies -19.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
19.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ODFL
41.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+65% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ODFL
41.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+61% premium
vs ODFL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.5x
vs
5Y Average
32.8x
+26% premium
Forward PE
38.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+100%
Industrials
20.8x
+83%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+65%
Industrials
25.9x
+61%
5Y Avg
32.8x
+26%
PEG Ratio
3.71x
S&P 500
1.75x
+112%
Industrials
1.59x
+133%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+59%
Industrials
13.9x
+75%
5Y Avg
20.4x
+19%
Price/FCF
43.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+105%
Industrials
20.6x
+112%
5Y Avg
46.1x
-5%
Price/Sales
7.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+143%
Industrials
1.6x
+379%
5Y Avg
6.6x
+14%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
S&P 500
1.88%
-70%
Industrials
1.24%
-55%
5Y Avg
0.47%
+20%
| Metric | ODFL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ODFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.2x | 19.1x+100% | 20.8x+83% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.5x | 25.2x+65% | 25.9x+61% | 32.8x+26% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.71x | 1.75x+112% | 1.59x+133% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.2x | 15.3x+59% | 13.9x+75% | 20.4x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 43.8x | 21.3x+105% | 20.6x+112% | 46.1x |
| Price/Sales | 7.6x | 3.1x+143% | 1.6x+379% | 6.6x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.47% |
ODFL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolODFL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ODFL generates $955M in free cash flow at a 17.4% margin — 23.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$955M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$120M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.0× FCF
~0.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$730M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.12
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
208M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageODFL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Freight Recession
A prolonged freight recession, marked by a sustained ISM Manufacturing Index below 50, reduces LTL shipment volumes and freight rates. This softness compresses freight density and erodes profitability as fixed costs become less leveraged.
High Risk
High Valuation
ODFL trades at premium P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, making it vulnerable to earnings miss or an economic slowdown. A sharp de‑rating could occur if revenue growth stalls, impacting shareholder returns.
Medium
Operating Ratio Sensitivity
In low‑volume periods, ODFL’s operating ratio can rise because fixed costs are spread over fewer shipments. While currently strong versus peers, revenue declines could erode margin resilience.
Medium
Driver Shortage
The trucking sector faces a persistent driver shortage as older drivers retire and younger talent is less attracted due to lower pay. This limits capacity expansion and may increase labor costs.
Medium
Market Volatility
Geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and low consumer spending create broader market volatility that can dampen freight demand and weigh on ODFL’s stock performance.
Lower
Industry Competition
The LTL market is highly competitive with significant consolidation, exerting pressure on service quality and pricing. ODFL must maintain its leading position to avoid margin compression.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ODFL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominance in LTL Freight
ODFL is described as a logistics powerhouse that has quietly dominated the less‑than‑truckload (LTL) freight industry through disciplined execution and operational excellence. Its deeply entrenched physical moat and union‑free workforce provide a competitive advantage that protects market share.
Pricing Power & Revenue Growth
The company has demonstrated a robust increase in revenue per hundredweight, supported by strong pricing that reflects its value proposition. This pricing power, combined with a focus on organic expansion rather than acquisitions, allows for disciplined growth and risk mitigation.
Operational Efficiency & Margin Improvement
ODFL expects sequential improvement in its operating ratio, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency. The company’s focus on cost control and a culture of frugality contribute to its margin leadership.
Financial Strength & Shareholder Returns
ODFL has a strong balance sheet with solid liquidity and strategic cost management. The company also engages in share buybacks and dividends, appealing to long‑term investors.
Market Position & Future Potential
With excess capacity and anticipated improvements in end‑market health, ODFL is well‑positioned to capture significant market share and enhance profitability. Analysts note its potential for growth based on its service center network, excess capacity, and technology investments.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ODFL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$200.62
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$126.01
+59.2% from the low
52-Week High
$233.79
-14.2% from the high
1 Month
-0.77%
3 Month
-0.91%
YTD
+26.0%
1 Year
+30.8%
3Y CAGR
+8.8%
5Y CAGR
+8.7%
10Y CAGR
+25.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ODFL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.2x
vs 39.8x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.3%
vs +4.5% median
-92% below peer median
Net Margin
18.6%
vs 3.9% median
+375% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $41.8B | 38.2x | +0.3% | 18.6% | Hold | +3.8% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $12.0B | 42.3x | +4.5% | 7.8% | Buy | -5.9% |
ARC ARCB ArcBest Corporation | $2.7B | 23.6x | -0.1% | 1.4% | Buy | -3.8% |
WER WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $2.2B | 39.8x | +4.8% | -0.5% | Hold | -0.8% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.4B | 26.9x | +15.3% | 3.9% | Buy | -1.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ODFL Dividend and Capital Return
ODFL returns capital mainly through $730M/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.56% dividend — combining for 2.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
Payout Ratio
23.0%
How ODFL Splits Its Return
Div 0.56%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 0.56%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.12
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
23.1%
5Y Div CAGR
30.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$730M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
208M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.12 | +7.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $1.04 | +30.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $0.80 | +33.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | +50.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsODFL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $208, implying +3.8% from the current price of $201. The bear case scenario is $121 and the bull case is $396.
02What is the ODFL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ODFL is $208 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $240 (+19.6% from today), and the low-end target is $138 (-31.2%). The base case model target is $229.
03Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) stock overvalued in 2026?
ODFL trades at 38.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ODFL in 2026 are: (1) Freight Recession — A prolonged freight recession, marked by a sustained ISM Manufacturing Index below 50, reduces LTL shipment volumes and freight rates. (2) High Valuation — ODFL trades at premium P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, making it vulnerable to earnings miss or an economic slowdown. (3) Operating Ratio Sensitivity — In low‑volume periods, ODFL’s operating ratio can rise because fixed costs are spread over fewer shipments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ODFL will report consensus revenue of $5.5B (+0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.13 (+5.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.6B in revenue.
06When does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ODFL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. generate?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) generated $955M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.4%. ODFL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($730M TTM).