LGIH trades 82.7% below Wall Street's consensus target of $88.80.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes LGIH achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 14.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 13 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $88.80, based on estimates from 13 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $48.60, this represents a potential upside of +82.7%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.13B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $60.00 to a high of $125.00, representing a 73% spread in expectations. The median target of $85.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 7 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, LGIH trades at a trailing P/E of 15.6x and forward P/E of 14.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +14.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $77.90, with bear and bull scenarios of $49.08 and $102.64 respectively. Model confidence stands at 40/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $39.2B | $140.17 | $160.00 | +14.1% | Hold | 13.4x | 53 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $20.2B | $81.52 | $79.86 | -2.0% | Buy | 14.9x | 50 |
 PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $22.9B | $118.71 | $143.86 | +21.2% | Hold | 11.7x | 44 |
 TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | $12.6B | $135.29 | $167.67 | +23.9% | Buy | 10.6x | 46 |
 TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corporation | $7.1B | $72.45 | $73.50 | +1.4% | Hold | 13.7x | 31 |
 SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.7B | $85.46 | $107.67 | +26.0% | Buy | 22.7x | 9 |
 KBHKB Home | $3.0B | $47.15 | $58.60 | +24.3% | Hold | 14.2x | 44 |
 MHOM/I Homes, Inc. | $3.6B | $137.77 | $172.00 | +24.8% | Hold | 11.4x | 10 |
 CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | $4.2B | $541.84 | $700.00 | +29.2% | Buy | 22.7x | 2 |
 GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | $2.9B | $67.21 | — | — | Hold | 10.9x | 12 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying LGIH stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for LGIH is $88.8, representing 82.7% upside from the current price of $48.6. With 13 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
LGIH has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 13 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 7 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $88.8 implies 82.7% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 14.9231x, LGIH trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $88.8 implies 82.7% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $125 for LGIH, while the most conservative target is $60. The consensus of $88.8 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $103 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
LGIH is moderately covered, with 13 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 7 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month LGIH stock forecast based on 13 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $88.8, with estimates ranging from $60 (bear case) to $125 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $78, with bear/bull scenarios of $49/$103.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates LGIH's fair value at $78 (base case), with a bear case of $49 and bull case of $103. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 40/100.
LGIH trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 15.6x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on LGIH, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $88.8 price target (82.7% upside). 7 of 13 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
LGIH analyst price targets range from $60 to $125, a 73% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $88.8 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $49-$103 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.