11.7% Below Target

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) has a consensus 12-month price target of $173.88, implying 11.7% upside from $155.67. The 46 analysts covering TOL see moderate appreciation potential.

TOL has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 46 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 22 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $173.88 implies 11.7% upside from current levels.

With a forward P/E of 12.1803x, TOL trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $173.88 implies 11.7% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $187 for TOL, while the most conservative target is $156. The consensus of $173.88 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $224 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

TOL is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 46 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 21 have Buy ratings, 22 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

The 12-month TOL stock forecast based on 46 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $173.88, with estimates ranging from $156 (bear case) to $187 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $170, with bear/bull scenarios of $107/$224.

Our quantitative valuation model calculates TOL's fair value at $170 (base case), with a bear case of $107 and bull case of $224. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.

TOL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 11.5x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Wall Street analysts are optimistic on TOL, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $173.88 price target (11.7% upside). 22 of 46 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

TOL analyst price targets range from $156 to $187, a 18% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $173.88 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $107-$224 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.