Upside case
Bull case
$126+142.5%
LTM would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
17
analysts
5 bullish · 3 bearish · 17 covering LTM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
9
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$69
+32.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $126
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.2B
LTM price targets
Three scenarios for where LTM stock could go
Current
~$52
Confidence
32 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $52
Base
$127
Bull
$126
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$127+144.7%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
LATAM Airlines Group S.A.
LTM · NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesDecember year-end
LATAM Airlines Group is a major Latin American airline providing passenger and cargo air transportation across the region and internationally. It generates revenue primarily from passenger tickets (roughly 80% of total) and cargo services (about 20%), with additional income from ground handling and maintenance. Its key advantage is its extensive route network across South America—serving 148 passenger destinations in 26 countries—which creates significant connectivity and scale advantages in a fragmented regional market.
Market Cap
$15.2B
Revenue TTM
$14.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
10.2%
LTM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
88%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+60.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.26
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.69/$1.35
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.69/$1.35
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.01/$1.15
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.30/$1.26 | +3.2% | $3.8B/$3.6B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.69/$1.35 | +25.2% | $3.9B/$3.9B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.69/$1.35 | +25.2% | $3.9B/$3.9B | +1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.01/$1.15 | +74.8% | $4.2B/$4.0B | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.5B
+15.6% YoY
FY2
$18.9B
+14.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.05
+67.3% YoY
FY2
$12.24
+52.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 10.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LTM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LTM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2012
Total disclosed revenue $348M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
All Other Segments
51.5%
+11.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
All Other Segments is the largest disclosed segment at 51.5% of FY 2012 revenue, up 11.0% YoY.
LTM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $88 — implies +87.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
87.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LTM
10.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
59% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
LTM
10.4x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
60% discount
vs LTM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.4x
vs
5Y Average
9.7x
+7% premium
Forward PE
11.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-42%
Industrials
20.8x
-46%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-59%
Industrials
25.9x
-60%
5Y Avg
9.7x
+7%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-58%
Industrials
13.9x
-54%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+4%
Price/FCF
10.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-52%
Industrials
20.6x
-51%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+30%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-66%
Industrials
1.6x
-33%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+21%
Dividend Yield
3.96%
S&P 500
1.88%
+111%
Industrials
1.24%
+220%
5Y Avg
2.95%
+34%
| Metric | LTM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg LTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.1x | 19.1x-42% | 20.8x-46% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.4x | 25.2x-59% | 25.9x-60% | 9.7x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4x | 15.3x-58% | 13.9x-54% | 6.2x |
| Price/FCF | 10.2x | 21.3x-52% | 20.6x-51% | 7.8x+30% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-66% | 1.6x-33% | 0.9x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.96% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.95% |
LTM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLTM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LTM generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 10.7% margin — 26.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
26.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.9× FCF
~3.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
136.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (26.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.8%
Dividend
4.0%
Buyback
3.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$585M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
293M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageLTM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial distress risk
LTM's Altman Z-Score is 1.65, indicating a heightened risk of bankruptcy as it is significantly below the safe threshold of 3. Additionally, the company has a net cash position of -$5.94 billion, with $8.09 billion in debt against $2.15 billion in cash.
High Risk
Technical sell signals
Current technical indicators, including a 14-day RSI of 28.770, suggest a 'Strong Sell' for LTM stock. Various moving averages also indicate sell signals, reflecting significant short-term risk.
Medium
Macroeconomic dependency
LTM's stock performance is highly dependent on macroeconomic factors, including oil prices and foreign exchange rates. Any adverse changes in these external economic conditions could significantly impact the company's value.
Medium
Recent price declines
Despite positive analyst ratings, LTM has experienced a decline in stock price for five consecutive days as of April 24, 2026. This trend raises concerns about market sentiment and potential further declines.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LTM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Financial Recovery and Growth
LATAM Airlines reported substantial revenue growth in 2025, with an 11.16% increase compared to the previous year, reaching $14.27 billion. Net income also saw a significant jump of 49.44%, amounting to $1.46 billion, demonstrating impressive capital efficiency with a Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 22%.
Strengthened Financial Position
The company has improved its net leverage to 1.5x, which is exceptionally strong for a capital-intensive airline. They generated over $1.4 billion in free cash flow in the last year and maintained liquidity of $3.7 billion by the end of 2025, with management expecting over $1.7 billion in free cash flow for 2026.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Several analysts have upgraded their ratings for LTM, with a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy.' Price targets from analysts suggest an average upside of around 30.33% from current prices, with some targets reaching as high as $67.00 or even $77.15 in base case scenarios.
Undervaluation and Re-rating Potential
Despite a significant rally in 2025, some analysts believe LTM is still undervalued. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.7x is considered good value compared to its peers, and the stock is trading below its estimated fair P/E ratio and significantly below its future cash flow value.
Operational Execution and Future Outlook
LATAM Airlines is targeting 8-10% capacity growth in 2026, with projected operating margins of 15-17%. The company's dominant position in the Brazilian market, where other carriers are struggling, further strengthens its outlook.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LTM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$51.85
52W Range Position
52%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.03
+61.9% from the low
52-Week High
$70.42
-26.4% from the high
1 Month
+7.80%
3 Month
-20.03%
YTD
-5.0%
1 Year
+58.0%
3Y CAGR
+28.0%
5Y CAGR
+16.0%
10Y CAGR
+7.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LTM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.1x
vs 9.9x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.6%
vs +10.6% median
+47% above peer median
Net Margin
10.2%
vs 7.9% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LTM LTM LATAM Airlines Group S.A. | $15.2B | 11.1x | +15.6% | 10.2% | Hold | +32.5% |
CPA CPA Copa Holdings, S.A. | $3.7B | 9.2x | +12.4% | 18.8% | Buy | +45.0% |
VLR VLRS Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. | $902M | — | +6.2% | -3.4% | Buy | +45.6% |
OMA OMAB Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | $5.1B | 0.8x | +10.6% | 33.5% | Buy | +19.1% |
DAL DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $47.9B | 13.6x | +6.6% | 7.9% | Buy | +12.5% |
UAL UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $32.5B | 10.7x | +10.6% | 6.1% | Buy | +36.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LTM Dividend and Capital Return
LTM returns 7.8% total yield, led by a 3.96% dividend. Buybacks add another 3.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.9%
Dividend Yield
3.96%
Payout Ratio
41.5%
How LTM Splits Its Return
Div 3.96%
Buyback 3.9%
Dividend 3.96%Buybacks 3.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
81.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$585M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
293M
At 3.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.41 | +308.4% | 3.7% | 7.5% |
| 2024 | $0.59 | — | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 2019 | $176.98 | +17.4% | — | — |
| 2018 | $150.73 | +118.2% | — | — |
FAQ
7 questionsLTM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $69, implying +32.5% from the current price of $52.
02What is the LTM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LTM is $69 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+44.6% from today), and the low-end target is $64 (+23.6%). The base case model target is $127.
03Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) stock overvalued in 2026?
LTM trades at 11.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LTM in 2026 are: (1) Financial distress risk — LTM's Altman Z-Score is 1. (2) Technical sell signals — Current technical indicators, including a 14-day RSI of 28. (3) Macroeconomic dependency — LTM's stock performance is highly dependent on macroeconomic factors, including oil prices and foreign exchange rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LTM will report consensus revenue of $16.5B (+15.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.05 (+67.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.9B in revenue.
06When does LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LTM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does LATAM Airlines Group S.A. generate?
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.7%. LTM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.0% yield) and share repurchases ($585M TTM).