Upside case
Bull case
$55+47.5%
UDR would need investors to value it at roughly 98x earnings — about 31x more generous than today's 66x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
UDR, Inc. (UDR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
18 bullish · 3 bearish · 38 covering UDR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
17
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
+8.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $55
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
66.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.1B
UDR price targets
Three scenarios for where UDR stock could go
Current
~$37
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $37
Bear
$17
Base
$43
Bull
$55
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$43+16.7%
At 77x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17-53.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 36x multiple contraction could push UDR down roughly 54% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
UDR, Inc.
UDR · NYSEReal EstateREIT - ResidentialDecember year-end
UDR is a multifamily real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops apartment communities across targeted U.S. markets. It generates revenue primarily from residential rental income — with a smaller contribution from property sales and development activities — and distributes most of its taxable income to shareholders as dividends. The company's competitive advantage lies in its disciplined market selection, operational scale in high-growth regions, and development expertise that creates value beyond simple property ownership.
Market Cap
$12.1B
Revenue TTM
$1.7B
Net Income TTM
$491M
Net Margin
28.6%
UDR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+100.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.62
Revenue
$425M/$422M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.65/$0.63
Revenue
$432M/$430M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.15
Revenue
$429M/$430M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.13
Revenue
$423M/$427M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.64/$0.62 | +3.2% | $425M/$422M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.65/$0.63 | +3.2% | $432M/$430M | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.64/$0.15 | +324.7% | $429M/$430M | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.58/$0.13 | +346.2% | $423M/$427M | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.8B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$1.8B
+3.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.26
-15.0% YoY
FY2
$1.32
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$892M
FCF Margin: 52.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UDR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
UDR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $8M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Management Service
100.0%
+22.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Management Service is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 22.1% YoY.
UDR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $45 — implies +24.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UDR
32.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+30% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
UDR
32.8x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
+35% premium
vs UDR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.8x
vs
5Y Average
100.4x
67% discount
Forward PE
66.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+247%
Real Estate
26.5x
+150%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+30%
Real Estate
24.3x
+35%
5Y Avg
100.4x
-67%
PEG Ratio
0.79x
S&P 500
1.75x
-55%
Real Estate
1.22x
-35%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+19%
Real Estate
16.7x
+9%
5Y Avg
19.8x
-8%
Price/FCF
19.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-8%
Real Estate
15.7x
+25%
5Y Avg
25.1x
-22%
Price/Sales
7.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+125%
Real Estate
3.0x
+132%
5Y Avg
9.1x
-23%
Dividend Yield
4.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
+147%
Real Estate
4.67%
-1%
5Y Avg
3.82%
+21%
| Metric | UDR | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg UDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 66.2x | 19.1x+247% | 26.5x+150% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.8x | 25.2x+30% | 24.3x+35% | 100.4x-67% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.79x | 1.75x-55% | 1.22x-35% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.2x | 15.3x+19% | 16.7x | 19.8x |
| Price/FCF | 19.7x | 21.3x | 15.7x+25% | 25.1x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 7.0x | 3.1x+125% | 3.0x+132% | 9.1x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.63% | 1.88% | 4.67% | 3.82% |
UDR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUDR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
UDR pays 5.6% total shareholder yield with 27.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
28.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.49
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
27.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$37M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.2B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
6.9× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (2.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
4.6%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$118M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
150.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
326M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageUDR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Levels
UDR has a debt-to-EBITDA ratio around 5.8x and a low interest coverage ratio of approximately 1.7x, indicating significant leverage. This high debt level means a large portion of operating profit is allocated to interest payments, leaving limited room for error if revenues decline or interest rates rise.
High Risk
Liquidity Concerns
The company exhibits extremely weak liquidity, with minimal cash on hand and a heavy reliance on credit facilities to meet short-term obligations. This situation poses a risk to UDR's ability to service its debt and fund operations effectively.
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
UDR's substantial debt portfolio, with a portion subject to variable interest rates, makes it susceptible to rising interest expenses. Changes in interest rates and credit market disruptions can significantly affect net income and cash flow.
Medium
Economic Uncertainties
Broader economic downturns, job losses, and inflation can negatively impact occupancy levels, rental income, and the value of real estate assets. Weak employment trends and low consumer confidence present ongoing challenges for UDR.
Medium
Geographic Concentration
A significant portion of UDR's net operating income (NOI) is generated from a few metropolitan areas. Adverse economic or regulatory changes in these regions could disproportionately affect the company's operations and financial performance.
Medium
Regulatory Risks
Regulatory risks, such as rent control in certain markets, can cap rent increases and create roadblocks for evictions. Changes in tax laws and the company's ability to maintain its status as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) are also critical to its financial strategy.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
Potential breaches of information technology systems could disrupt operations and damage UDR's reputation. As reliance on technology increases, the risk of cybersecurity incidents becomes more pronounced.
Lower
Development and Construction Risks
UDR faces risks related to financing, supply chain constraints, and regulatory approvals for development projects. These challenges could lead to increased costs and delays in project completion.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UDR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Earnings and Revenue Growth
UDR has demonstrated strong performance, with Q4 2025 earnings significantly exceeding expectations and revenue showing consistent growth. In 2025, revenue increased by 2.87% year-over-year, and earnings saw a substantial rise of 339.96%.
Consistent Dividend Payouts
UDR has a long track record of paying consecutive quarterly dividends, even increasing its annual payout. This consistent dividend, coupled with a 4.6% dividend yield, makes it attractive for income investors.
Favorable Market Conditions
UDR operates in markets that lean favorably toward renting, especially as home sales have slowed due to unaffordable prices. Key markets like the Bay Area and Seattle are expected to see limited new supply growth, promoting stable rental rates.
High Occupancy and Tenant Retention
UDR consistently achieves high occupancy rates, which were at 96.9% in Q4 2025. High tenant retention, significantly above historical levels, leads to lower frictional costs and incremental cash flow.
Strategic Capital Allocation
Management is focused on data-driven capital allocation, including share buybacks and strategic acquisitions aimed at enhancing long-term cash flow. They are also managing lease expirations to align with stronger seasonal demand patterns.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UDR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$37.04
52W Range Position
40%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.94
+12.4% from the low
52-Week High
$43.12
-14.1% from the high
1 Month
+6.50%
3 Month
-1.36%
YTD
+1.0%
1 Year
-13.5%
3Y CAGR
-3.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.2%
10Y CAGR
+0.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UDR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
66.2x
vs 46.6x median
+42% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +4.2% median
-32% below peer median
Net Margin
28.6%
vs 30.6% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UDR UDR UDR, Inc. | $12.1B | 66.2x | +2.9% | 28.6% | Buy | +8.7% |
EQR EQR Equity Residential | $24.8B | 50.8x | +3.6% | 30.6% | Hold | +6.0% |
AVB AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $25.9B | 37.9x | +4.2% | 34.6% | Hold | +2.8% |
ESS ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. | $17.2B | 46.6x | +5.3% | 30.2% | Hold | +4.5% |
MAA MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $15.2B | 39.0x | +2.2% | 18.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
CPT CPT Camden Property Trust | $11.0B | 68.4x | +8.5% | 32.8% | Hold | +7.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UDR Dividend and Capital Return
UDR returns 5.6% total yield, led by a 4.63% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
4.63%
Payout Ratio
1.5%
How UDR Splits Its Return
Div 4.63%
Dividend 4.63%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.5%
5Y Div CAGR
3.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
7 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$118M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
326M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.71 | +1.2% | 1.0% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | $1.70 | +3.4% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | $1.64 | +9.2% | 0.2% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | +3.8% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsUDR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is UDR, Inc. (UDR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
UDR, Inc. (UDR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying +8.7% from the current price of $37. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $55.
02What is the UDR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UDR is $40 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $44 (+18.8% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-5.5%). The base case model target is $43.
03Is UDR, Inc. (UDR) stock overvalued in 2026?
UDR trades at 66.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for UDR, Inc. (UDR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UDR in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Levels — UDR has a debt-to-EBITDA ratio around 5. (2) Liquidity Concerns — The company exhibits extremely weak liquidity, with minimal cash on hand and a heavy reliance on credit facilities to meet short-term obligations. (3) Interest Rate Fluctuations — UDR's substantial debt portfolio, with a portion subject to variable interest rates, makes it susceptible to rising interest expenses. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is UDR, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UDR will report consensus revenue of $1.8B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.26 (-15.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.8B in revenue.
06When does UDR, Inc. (UDR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UDR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does UDR, Inc. generate?
UDR, Inc. (UDR) generated $892M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 52.0%. UDR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.6% yield) and share repurchases ($118M TTM).