Upside case
Bull case
$643+697.0%
CVS would need investors to value it at roughly 90x earnings — about 79x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
35 bullish · 0 bearish · 41 covering CVS
Strong Buy
2
Buy
33
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+18.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$164 – $643
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $102.6B
CVS price targets
Three scenarios for where CVS stock could go
Current
~$81
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $81
Bear
$164
Base
$305
Bull
$643
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$305+277.7%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$164+103.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CVS down roughly 103% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CVS Health Corporation
CVS · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Healthcare PlansDecember year-end
CVS Health is an integrated healthcare company that operates retail pharmacies, provides pharmacy benefit management services, and offers health insurance plans. It generates revenue primarily from its Pharmacy Services segment (~60%), Health Care Benefits segment (~35%), and Retail/LTC segment (~5%) through prescription sales, PBM services, and insurance premiums. Its key competitive advantage is its vertically integrated model—combining retail pharmacies, PBM services, and insurance—which creates a closed-loop healthcare ecosystem with significant scale and data advantages.
Market Cap
$102.6B
Revenue TTM
$402.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
0.4%
CVS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.25/$1.70
Revenue
$94.6B/$93.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.46
Revenue
$98.9B/$94.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.60/$1.37
Revenue
$102.9B/$98.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.00
Revenue
$105.7B/$103.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.25/$1.70 | +32.4% | $94.6B/$93.7B | +1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.81/$1.46 | +24.0% | $98.9B/$94.5B | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.60/$1.37 | +16.8% | $102.9B/$98.8B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09/$1.00 | +9.0% | $105.7B/$103.7B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$416.2B
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$446.3B
+7.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.11
+268.8% YoY
FY2
$5.25
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.8B
FCF Margin: 1.9%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.21
Expected Revenue
$95.1B
CVS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CVS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $389.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pharmacy Revenue
58.9%
+8.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Pharmacy Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 58.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.9% YoY.
CVS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $86 — implies +4.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CVS
58.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+131% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
CVS
58.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+162% premium
vs CVS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
58.1x
vs
5Y Average
25.5x
+128% premium
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Healthcare
18.8x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
58.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+131%
Healthcare
22.2x
+162%
5Y Avg
25.5x
+128%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-18%
Healthcare
14.0x
-11%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+7%
Price/FCF
13.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-38%
Healthcare
18.6x
-29%
5Y Avg
9.9x
+33%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-92%
Healthcare
2.8x
-91%
5Y Avg
0.3x
-17%
Dividend Yield
3.31%
S&P 500
1.87%
+77%
Healthcare
1.42%
+133%
5Y Avg
3.33%
-1%
| Metric | CVS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg CVS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 19.1x-41% | 18.8x-40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 58.1x | 25.1x+131% | 22.2x+162% | 25.5x+128% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5x | 15.2x-18% | 14.0x-11% | 11.7x |
| Price/FCF | 13.1x | 21.1x-38% | 18.6x-29% | 9.9x+33% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-92% | 2.8x-91% | 0.3x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.31% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 3.33% |
CVS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCVS Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CVS posts 0.4% net margin with 2.3% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$402.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.38
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
2.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$85.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
3.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
192.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCVS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Antitrust & Regulatory Scrutiny
CVS’s vertical integration model has attracted intensified antitrust scrutiny from consumer protection agencies and lawmakers, including a nationwide class‑action lawsuit alleging kickbacks tied to drug formulary placement. The investigation could lead to fines, forced divestitures, or operational restrictions that would materially impact revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Medicare & Medicaid Payment Risk
Changes in CMS payment rates, audit processes, and minimum Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rebate regulations directly affect CVS’s Medicare and Medicaid businesses. Adverse shifts could increase costs or reduce reimbursements, tightening margins in these high‑volume segments.
High Risk
High Debt & Leverage
Acquisitions such as Aetna, Signify Health, and Oak Street Health have left CVS with a leveraged balance sheet, limiting financial flexibility and exposing the company to refinancing risk if interest rates rise or credit conditions tighten.
Medium
Acquisition Integration & Goodwill Impairment
The integration of recent acquisitions has proven challenging, evidenced by a significant goodwill impairment charge for Oak Street Health. Ongoing operational hurdles could erode expected synergies and reduce projected earnings growth.
Medium
PBM Model Transparency & Rebate Pressure
The Pharmacy Benefit Manager model faces political and regulatory pressure over transparency, rebates, and pricing structures. Heightened scrutiny could force higher rebates or limit pricing flexibility, compressing pharmacy reimbursement margins.
Lower
Cybersecurity & Data Privacy
Increasing reliance on technology, including AI, heightens exposure to cyberattacks and data privacy violations. A breach could result in regulatory penalties, litigation, and reputational damage that would negatively affect financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CVS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Vertical Integration Advantage
CVS Health’s integrated model combines Aetna insurance, CVS Caremark PBM, retail pharmacy, and care delivery services into a single platform. This vertical integration gives the company a competitive edge by offering a more holistic, potentially cost‑effective approach to healthcare.
Acquisitions Fuel Primary Care Expansion
Recent purchases of Oak Street Health and Signify Health strengthen CVS’s primary care and home‑healthcare offerings. The company plans to open 1,500 HealthHub locations by the end of 2025, broadening its service footprint and revenue streams.
Record Revenue Growth 2025
Total revenues reached a record $402.1 billion in 2025, up 7.8% from the prior year. This growth reflects the success of CVS’s integrated services and expanding footprint.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
CVS generated $10.6 billion in cash flow from operations in 2025, underscoring its ability to produce substantial free cash flow from its diversified business model.
PBM Scale Drives Cost Savings
The scale of CVS Caremark’s PBM business helps lower drug costs for the healthcare system. Digital enhancements, such as the Health Dashboard and telehealth services, further improve the consumer experience and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CVS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$80.69
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.35
+38.3% from the low
52-Week High
$85.15
-5.2% from the high
1 Month
+10.11%
3 Month
+5.71%
YTD
+0.7%
1 Year
+20.3%
3Y CAGR
+4.5%
5Y CAGR
-0.6%
10Y CAGR
-2.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CVS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 19.9x median
-43% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.5%
vs +7.5% median
-53% below peer median
Net Margin
0.4%
vs 2.3% median
-81% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $102.6B | 11.3x | +3.5% | 0.4% | Buy | +18.0% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $330.3B | 19.9x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +5.9% |
CI CI Cigna Corporation | $72.7B | 9.1x | +7.5% | 2.3% | Buy | +19.0% |
ELV ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $80.1B | 13.8x | +4.0% | 2.6% | Buy | +3.6% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $28.8B | 26.8x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | +2.7% |
MCK MCK McKesson Corporation | $98.1B | 20.5x | +10.0% | 1.1% | Buy | +25.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CVS Dividend and Capital Return
CVS returns 3.3% total yield, led by a 3.31% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.31%
Payout Ratio
1.9%
How CVS Splits Its Return
Div 3.31%
Dividend 3.31%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.67
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
5.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.33 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.66 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $2.66 | +9.9% | 5.3% | 11.3% |
| 2023 | $2.42 | +10.0% | 2.0% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | +10.0% | 2.8% | 5.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsCVS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CVS Health Corporation (CVS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 35 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +18.0% from the current price of $81. The bear case scenario is $164 and the bull case is $643.
02What is the CVS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CVS is $95 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $101 (+25.2% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (+11.5%). The base case model target is $305.
03Is CVS Health Corporation (CVS) stock overvalued in 2026?
CVS trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CVS Health Corporation (CVS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CVS in 2026 are: (1) Antitrust & Regulatory Scrutiny — CVS’s vertical integration model has attracted intensified antitrust scrutiny from consumer protection agencies and lawmakers, including a nationwide class‑action lawsuit alleging kickbacks tied to drug formulary placement. (2) Medicare & Medicaid Payment Risk — Changes in CMS payment rates, audit processes, and minimum Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rebate regulations directly affect CVS’s Medicare and Medicaid businesses. (3) High Debt & Leverage — Acquisitions such as Aetna, Signify Health, and Oak Street Health have left CVS with a leveraged balance sheet, limiting financial flexibility and exposing the company to refinancing risk if interest rates rise or credit conditions tighten. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CVS Health Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CVS will report consensus revenue of $416.2B (+3.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.11 (+268.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $446.3B in revenue.
06When does CVS Health Corporation (CVS) report its next earnings?
CVS Health Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.21 and revenue of $95.1B. Over recent quarters, CVS has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does CVS Health Corporation generate?
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) generated $7.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.9%. CVS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).