Upside case
Bull case
$1170+102.7%
META would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
60
analysts
50 bullish · 3 bearish · 60 covering META
Strong Buy
2
Buy
48
Hold
7
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$826
+43.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$560 – $1170
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
60
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $1.46T
META price targets
Three scenarios for where META stock could go
Current
~$577
Confidence
72 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $577
Bear
$560
Base
$888
Bull
$1170
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$888+53.9%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$560-3.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push META down roughly 3% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Meta Platforms, Inc.
META · NASDAQTechnologyInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Meta Platforms operates a family of social media and messaging apps — Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger — that connect billions of users globally. It generates nearly all its revenue from digital advertising across these platforms, with its Reality Labs segment — which includes VR hardware and software — currently operating at a loss. The company's massive network effects and user data advantage create a powerful moat, making it difficult for competitors to challenge its dominant position in social media.
Market Cap
$1.46T
Revenue TTM
$215.0B
Net Income TTM
$70.6B
Net Margin
32.8%
META Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$7.14/$5.88
Revenue
$47.5B/$44.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.25/$6.72
Revenue
$51.2B/$49.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.88/$8.19
Revenue
$59.9B/$58.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$7.31/$6.70
Revenue
$56.3B/$55.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $7.14/$5.88 | +21.4% | $47.5B/$44.8B | +6.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.25/$6.72 | +7.9% | $51.2B/$49.5B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.88/$8.19 | +8.4% | $59.9B/$58.3B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.31/$6.70 | +9.1% | $56.3B/$55.6B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$249.4B
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$287.0B
+15.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$32.62
+18.5% YoY
FY2
$36.15
+10.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$48.3B
FCF Margin: 22.4%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$7.18
Expected Revenue
$60.2B
META beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
META Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $201.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Family of Apps
98.9%
+22.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
US & Canada
28.6%
+24.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Family of Apps is the largest disclosed segment at 98.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 22.4% YoY.
US & Canada is the largest reported region at 28.6%, up 24.8% YoY.
META Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $907 — implies +57.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
57.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
META
24.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Technology Trailing P/E
META
24.6x
vs
Technology
29.0x
15% discount
vs META 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.6x
vs
5Y Average
23.0x
+7% premium
Forward PE
17.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-7%
Technology
22.3x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1%
Technology
29.0x
-15%
5Y Avg
23.0x
+7%
PEG Ratio
1.33x
S&P 500
1.66x
-20%
Technology
1.51x
-11%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Technology
16.6x
-11%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-5%
Price/FCF
31.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+53%
Technology
19.2x
+65%
5Y Avg
25.6x
+24%
Price/Sales
7.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+135%
Technology
2.4x
+198%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+2%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
S&P 500
1.91%
-81%
Technology
1.11%
-68%
5Y Avg
0.32%
+11%
| Metric | META | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg META |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.5x | 18.8x | 22.3x-21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.6x | 24.4x | 29.0x-15% | 23.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.33x | 1.66x-20% | 1.51x-11% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8x | 15.2x | 16.6x-11% | 15.5x |
| Price/FCF | 31.7x | 20.7x+53% | 19.2x+65% | 25.6x+24% |
| Price/Sales | 7.3x | 3.1x+135% | 2.4x+198% | 7.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.36% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.32% |
META trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMETA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
META generates $48.3B in free cash flow at a 22.4% margin — 27.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$215.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+26.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
81.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
41.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
32.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$27.53
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$48.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
27.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$35.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$48.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.0× FCF
~1.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$26.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMETA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Capital Expenditure Risk
Meta's guidance for $115 to $135 billion in CapEx for 2026, nearly doubling 2025's spending, raises concerns over capital allocation and financial strain.
High Risk
Regulatory and Antitrust Challenges
Meta faces ongoing legal challenges with the FTC and remains a constant target for regulators, posing significant operational and financial risks.
Medium
AI Strategy Risks
Investors are concerned about Meta's risky AI strategies, which could lead to high costs without guaranteed returns.
Medium
Stock Volatility
Meta's stock has dropped more than 30% within short timeframes multiple times in recent years, indicating high volatility and investor uncertainty.
Medium
Negative Investor Sentiment
Analysts note that negative sentiment around Meta will persist into 2026, potentially dampening stock performance.
Lower
Market Saturation
Meta's dominance in social media may face challenges from market saturation and evolving consumer preferences.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why META Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI-driven ad monetization
Meta's strong Q1 execution and AI-driven ad monetization are driving revenue growth and margin expansion.
Revenue growth momentum
Meta has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 22% compound growth rate at a $200B scale.
Valuation upside potential
The stock has appreciated significantly due to improving earnings momentum, indicating further valuation upside.
Reinvestment opportunities
Meta is actively reinvesting in growth areas, with management raising capital expenditures to $125B-$145B in 2026.
Leadership in VR/AR
Meta is a leader in virtual reality and augmented reality, positioning it for the future of human connection and social technology.
Innovative AI applications
Meta's AI capabilities, such as the Meta AI app, are creating unique digital experiences and enhancing user engagement.
Business tools adoption
Meta's business tools like Meta Business Suite and Ads Manager help businesses connect with customers and improve results.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
META Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$577.22
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$520.26
+10.9% from the low
52-Week High
$796.25
-27.5% from the high
1 Month
-5.56%
3 Month
-6.25%
YTD
-11.3%
1 Year
-17.0%
3Y CAGR
+26.6%
5Y CAGR
+11.9%
10Y CAGR
+17.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
META vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.5x
vs 19.7x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.0%
vs +12.5% median
+28% above peer median
Net Margin
32.8%
vs 18.8% median
+74% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.46T | 17.5x | +16.0% | 32.8% | Buy | +43.1% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.45T | 25.9x | +14.6% | 37.9% | Buy | +11.9% |
SNA SNAP Snap Inc. | $7.9B | — | +11.7% | -6.7% | Hold | +70.1% |
PIN PINS Pinterest, Inc. | $13.5B | 10.7x | +12.5% | 7.6% | Buy | +26.5% |
RDD RDDT Reddit, Inc. | $33.5B | 35.4x | +23.0% | 28.6% | Buy | +27.3% |
MTC MTCH Match Group, Inc. | $8.2B | 13.4x | +4.9% | 18.8% | Buy | +16.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
META Dividend and Capital Return
META returns capital mainly through $26.2B/year in buybacks (1.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.36% dividend — combining for 2.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
Payout Ratio
8.8%
How META Splits Its Return
Div 0.36%
Buyback 1.8%
Dividend 0.36%Buybacks 1.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$26.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
45M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.10 | +5.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | — | 2.0% | 2.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsMETA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 60 analysts covering the stock, 50 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $826, implying +43.1% from the current price of $577. The bear case scenario is $560 and the bull case is $1170.
02What is the META stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for META is $826 based on 60 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $910 (+57.7% from today), and the low-end target is $700 (+21.3%). The base case model target is $888.
03Is Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) stock overvalued in 2026?
META trades at 17.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for META in 2026 are: (1) Capital Expenditure Risk — Meta's guidance for $115 to $135 billion in CapEx for 2026, nearly doubling 2025's spending, raises concerns over capital allocation and financial strain. (2) Regulatory and Antitrust Challenges — Meta faces ongoing legal challenges with the FTC and remains a constant target for regulators, posing significant operational and financial risks. (3) AI Strategy Risks — Investors are concerned about Meta's risky AI strategies, which could lead to high costs without guaranteed returns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Meta Platforms, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates META will report consensus revenue of $249.4B (+16.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $32.62 (+18.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $287.0B in revenue.
06When does Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) report its next earnings?
Meta Platforms, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $7.18 and revenue of $60.2B. Over recent quarters, META has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Meta Platforms, Inc. generate?
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) generated $48.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.4%. META returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($26.2B TTM).