Upside case
Bull case
$134-6.1%
The bull case prices MMM at 15x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
3M Company (MMM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 covering MMM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
17
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$167
+16.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$51 – $134
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $74.5B
MMM price targets
Three scenarios for where MMM stock could go
Current
~$143
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $143
Bear
$51
Base
$144
Bull
$134
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$144+1.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MMM — at roughly 17x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$51-64.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push MMM down roughly 65% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
3M Company
MMM · NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesDecember year-end
3M is a diversified industrial conglomerate that manufactures thousands of industrial, consumer, and healthcare products — from Post-it Notes and Scotch tape to medical supplies and industrial adhesives. It generates revenue through four main segments: Safety & Industrial (~35%), Transportation & Electronics (~25%), Health Care (~25%), and Consumer (~15%). The company's competitive moat lies in its massive patent portfolio — over 60,000 patents — and its deep expertise in materials science that enables it to create innovative products across diverse markets.
Market Cap
$74.5B
Revenue TTM
$25.0B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
11.1%
MMM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.16/$2.01
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.19/$2.07
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.83/$1.80
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.14/$1.98
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.16/$2.01 | +7.5% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.19/$2.07 | +5.8% | $6.5B/$6.2B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.83/$1.80 | +1.7% | $6.0B/$6.0B | -0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.14/$1.98 | +8.1% | $6.0B/$6.0B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$24.5B
-2.1% YoY
FY2
$24.1B
-1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.25
+19.5% YoY
FY2
$6.06
-3.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MMM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MMM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Safety And Industrial Segment
45.6%
+3.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
54.4%
+1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Safety And Industrial Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 45.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.9% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 54.4%, up 1.3% YoY.
MMM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $138 — implies -3.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MMM
23.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
5% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
MMM
23.8x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
7% discount
vs MMM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.8x
vs
5Y Average
17.1x
+39% premium
Forward PE
16.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-14%
Industrials
20.7x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-5%
Industrials
25.7x
-7%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+39%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-1%
Industrials
13.7x
+11%
5Y Avg
12.8x
+18%
Price/FCF
53.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+153%
Industrials
21.2x
+152%
5Y Avg
42.6x
+25%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-4%
Industrials
1.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+19%
Dividend Yield
1.53%
S&P 500
1.87%
-18%
Industrials
1.27%
+20%
5Y Avg
4.11%
-63%
| Metric | MMM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg MMM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.4x | 19.1x-14% | 20.7x-21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.8x | 25.1x | 25.7x | 17.1x+39% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1x | 15.2x | 13.7x+11% | 12.8x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 53.4x | 21.1x+153% | 21.2x+152% | 42.6x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.6x+88% | 2.5x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.53% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 4.11% |
MMM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMMM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MMM generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — 28.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
28.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.7× FCF
~3.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
65.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.0%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
6.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
522M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMMM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Litigation & Legal Liabilities
3M has faced multiple high‑value settlements, including a $6 billion earplug payout and a $10.3 billion PFAS water‑contamination settlement. Ongoing lawsuits over products such as the Bair Hugger warming blanket add further exposure that could erode recent gains.
Medium
Financial Strain from Settlements
The company’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 3.39, and large settlements have strained cash flows. Rising interest rates or additional liabilities could limit future investment and growth initiatives.
Lower
Operational & Supply Chain Risks
Commodity price volatility, production cost increases, and potential recalls threaten manufacturing efficiency and product quality, potentially impacting margins.
Lower
Spin‑off Vulnerability
The divestiture of the Health Care segment (Solventum) has reduced diversification, making 3M more sensitive to sector‑specific downturns and less able to buffer market swings.
Lower
Regulatory & Environmental Risks
3M is phasing out PFAS production by 2025 amid tightening regulations; non‑compliance could trigger penalties and reputational harm.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MMM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Operations
3M operates across safety, industrial, transportation, electronics, and consumer markets, creating a broad revenue base that cushions against sector downturns. This multi‑segment footprint supports steady top‑line growth and cross‑sell opportunities.
Earnings Growth Potential
Analysts project modest single‑digit EPS growth, with revenue expected to rise 4.60% and EPS 5.67%. Some forecasts see upside potential exceeding 50%, reflecting confidence in 3M’s earnings trajectory.
Strong Financial Performance
The company consistently beats earnings expectations, with improving ROA, ROE, and ROIC relative to its three‑year averages. Robust free‑cash‑flow conversion further underpins its financial resilience.
Attractive Valuation
DCF models place 3M’s fair value at $177.32 per share, implying a 19% upside from the recent $144.47 price, while another model values it at $211.02, a 31.5% discount to current levels. These valuations suggest the stock is undervalued.
Strategic Initiatives
3M is expanding optical technology manufacturing to meet data‑center and AI demand, and restructuring efforts aim to boost efficiency and margins. These moves position the company for growth in high‑margin tech segments.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MMM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$142.82
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$137.63
+3.8% from the low
52-Week High
$177.41
-19.5% from the high
1 Month
-1.16%
3 Month
-13.48%
YTD
-11.7%
1 Year
+1.4%
3Y CAGR
+18.2%
5Y CAGR
-3.2%
10Y CAGR
+0.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MMM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.4x
vs 22.6x median
-27% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.1%
vs +4.2% median
-149% below peer median
Net Margin
11.1%
vs 14.0% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMM MMM 3M Company | $74.5B | 16.4x | -2.1% | 11.1% | Hold | +16.8% |
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $132.5B | 19.9x | +6.1% | 11.2% | Buy | +16.6% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $77.8B | 21.3x | +4.2% | 13.3% | Buy | +17.0% |
ITW ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $73.4B | 22.6x | +1.8% | 19.3% | Hold | +7.5% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $159.4B | 30.9x | +10.3% | 14.0% | Buy | -7.6% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $110.1B | 28.1x | +2.5% | 16.6% | Buy | +19.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MMM Dividend and Capital Return
MMM returns capital mainly through $4.8B/year in buybacks (6.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.53% dividend — combining for 8.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
8.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.5%
Dividend Yield
1.53%
Payout Ratio
36.2%
How MMM Splits Its Return
Div 1.53%
Buyback 6.5%
Dividend 1.53%Buybacks 6.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-16.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-9.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
34M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
522M
At 6.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.92 | -13.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | $3.36 | -33.0% | 2.5% | 5.3% |
| 2023 | $5.02 | +0.7% | 0.1% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $4.98 | +0.7% | 2.6% | 8.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMMM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is 3M Company (MMM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
3M Company (MMM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $167, implying +16.8% from the current price of $143. The bear case scenario is $51 and the bull case is $134.
02What is the MMM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MMM is $167 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+33.0% from today), and the low-end target is $136 (-4.8%). The base case model target is $144.
03Is 3M Company (MMM) stock overvalued in 2026?
MMM trades at 16.4x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for 3M Company (MMM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MMM in 2026 are: (1) Litigation & Legal Liabilities — 3M has faced multiple high‑value settlements, including a $6 billion earplug payout and a $10. (2) Financial Strain from Settlements — The company’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 3. (3) Operational & Supply Chain Risks — Commodity price volatility, production cost increases, and potential recalls threaten manufacturing efficiency and product quality, potentially impacting margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is 3M Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MMM will report consensus revenue of $24.5B (-2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.25 (+19.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.1B in revenue.
06When does 3M Company (MMM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MMM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does 3M Company generate?
3M Company (MMM) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. MMM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($4.8B TTM).