Upside case
Bull case
$287+78.5%
MMM would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
3M Company (MMM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 covering MMM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
17
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$167
+3.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$137 – $287
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $83.8B
MMM price targets
Three scenarios for where MMM stock could go
Current
~$161
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $161
Bear
$137
Base
$218
Bull
$287
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$218+35.5%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$137-14.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MMM down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
3M Company
MMM · NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesDecember year-end
3M is a diversified industrial conglomerate that manufactures thousands of industrial, consumer, and healthcare products — from Post-it Notes and Scotch tape to medical supplies and industrial adhesives. It generates revenue through four main segments: Safety & Industrial (~35%), Transportation & Electronics (~25%), Health Care (~25%), and Consumer (~15%). The company's competitive moat lies in its massive patent portfolio — over 60,000 patents — and its deep expertise in materials science that enables it to create innovative products across diverse markets.
Market Cap
$83.8B
Revenue TTM
$25.0B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
11.1%
MMM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.16/$2.01
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.19/$2.07
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.83/$1.80
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.14/$1.98
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.16/$2.01 | +7.5% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.19/$2.07 | +5.8% | $6.5B/$6.2B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.83/$1.80 | +1.7% | $6.0B/$6.0B | -0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.14/$1.98 | +8.1% | $6.0B/$6.0B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$25.0B
+0.1% YoY
FY2
$25.7B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.27
+39.0% YoY
FY2
$8.24
+13.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
July 17, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.24
Expected Revenue
$6.4B
MMM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MMM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Safety And Industrial Segment
45.6%
+3.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
54.4%
+1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Safety And Industrial Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 45.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.9% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 54.4%, up 1.3% YoY.
MMM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $186 — implies +15.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MMM
26.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+9% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
MMM
26.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
In line with benchmark
vs MMM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.8x
vs
5Y Average
17.1x
+57% premium
Forward PE
18.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-2%
Industrials
21.2x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+9%
Industrials
25.6x
+5%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+57%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+11%
Industrials
13.9x
+21%
5Y Avg
12.8x
+31%
Price/FCF
60.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+190%
Industrials
20.0x
+199%
5Y Avg
42.6x
+41%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+9%
Industrials
1.6x
+115%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+34%
Dividend Yield
1.36%
S&P 500
1.91%
-29%
Industrials
1.21%
+12%
5Y Avg
4.11%
-67%
| Metric | MMM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg MMM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.5x | 18.8x | 21.2x-13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.8x | 24.4x | 25.6x | 17.1x+57% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.8x | 15.2x+11% | 13.9x+21% | 12.8x+31% |
| Price/FCF | 60.0x | 20.7x+190% | 20.0x+199% | 42.6x+41% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 1.6x+115% | 2.5x+34% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.36% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 4.11% |
MMM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMMM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MMM generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — 28.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
28.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.7× FCF
~3.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
65.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.1%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
5.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
522M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMMM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Legal and regulatory issues
Increased legal and regulatory risks from PFAS and Combat Arms settlements, which could lead to significant financial liabilities.
High Risk
Spin-off uncertainty
Uncertainty around the Solventum spin-off during a turbulent global environment, which may impact financial stability and investor confidence.
Medium
Operational and market risks
Heightened operational and market risks due to a challenging global economic environment, affecting performance and growth.
Medium
Compliance and cybersecurity
Increased attention on AI, cybersecurity, and compliance risks, which could expose the company to vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.
Lower
Consumer brand reliance
Dependence on well-known consumer brands like Post-it and Scotch Tape, which may face competitive pressures or shifting consumer preferences.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MMM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Innovative product portfolio
3M's diverse range of products, from abrasives to futuristic materials, supports seamless operations and drives demand across industries.
Strong brand recognition
Well-known consumer brands like Scotch Tape, Post-it notes, and Nexcare bandages enhance 3M's market presence and customer loyalty.
Capital returns and dividends
3M's consistent dividend payments and significant stock repurchases highlight its commitment to shareholder returns and financial stability.
Global impact and collaboration
3M leverages science and technology to improve lives worldwide, fostering innovation and progress across communities.
Historical resilience and legacy
With roots dating back to 1902, 3M's long-standing presence and adaptability underscore its enduring market relevance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MMM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$160.60
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$139.34
+15.3% from the low
52-Week High
$177.41
-9.5% from the high
1 Month
+5.29%
3 Month
+10.70%
YTD
-0.8%
1 Year
+12.7%
3Y CAGR
+23.4%
5Y CAGR
+0.1%
10Y CAGR
+1.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MMM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.5x
vs 23.4x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.1%
vs +3.4% median
-98% below peer median
Net Margin
11.1%
vs 14.0% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMM MMM 3M Company | $83.8B | 18.5x | +0.1% | 11.1% | Hold | +3.8% |
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $145.1B | 21.8x | +5.7% | 11.2% | Buy | +9.0% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $84.4B | 23.2x | +3.4% | 13.3% | Buy | +7.7% |
ITW ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $76.1B | 23.4x | +2.8% | 19.3% | Hold | +2.7% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $163.8B | 31.6x | +10.7% | 14.0% | Buy | -1.2% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $120.3B | 30.5x | +3.1% | 16.6% | Buy | +9.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MMM Dividend and Capital Return
MMM returns capital mainly through $4.8B/year in buybacks (5.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.36% dividend — combining for 7.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
7.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.7%
Dividend Yield
1.36%
Payout Ratio
36.2%
How MMM Splits Its Return
Div 1.36%
Buyback 5.7%
Dividend 1.36%Buybacks 5.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-16.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-9.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
30M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
522M
At 5.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.92 | -13.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | $3.36 | -33.0% | 2.5% | 5.3% |
| 2023 | $5.02 | +0.7% | 0.1% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $4.98 | +0.7% | 2.6% | 8.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMMM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is 3M Company (MMM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
3M Company (MMM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $167, implying +3.8% from the current price of $161. The bear case scenario is $137 and the bull case is $287.
02What is the MMM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MMM is $167 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+18.3% from today), and the low-end target is $136 (-15.3%). The base case model target is $218.
03Is 3M Company (MMM) stock overvalued in 2026?
MMM trades at 18.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for 3M Company (MMM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MMM in 2026 are: (1) Legal and regulatory issues — Increased legal and regulatory risks from PFAS and Combat Arms settlements, which could lead to significant financial liabilities. (2) Spin-off uncertainty — Uncertainty around the Solventum spin-off during a turbulent global environment, which may impact financial stability and investor confidence. (3) Operational and market risks — Heightened operational and market risks due to a challenging global economic environment, affecting performance and growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is 3M Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MMM will report consensus revenue of $25.0B (+0.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.27 (+39.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $25.7B in revenue.
06When does 3M Company (MMM) report its next earnings?
3M Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-17. Consensus expects EPS of $2.24 and revenue of $6.4B. Over recent quarters, MMM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does 3M Company generate?
3M Company (MMM) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. MMM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($4.8B TTM).