Upside case
Bull case
$283-4.7%
The bull case prices MOD at 55x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering MOD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$358
+20.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$136 – $283
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
57.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.7B
MOD price targets
Three scenarios for where MOD stock could go
Current
~$297
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $297
Bear
$136
Base
$215
Bull
$283
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$215-27.7%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$136-54.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 31x multiple contraction could push MOD down roughly 54% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Modine Manufacturing Company
MOD · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsMarch year-end
Modine Manufacturing is a specialized industrial company that designs and produces engineered heat transfer systems and components for vehicles and commercial buildings. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Climate Solutions (commercial HVAC and data center cooling systems) and Performance Technologies (vehicle thermal management products for automotive and off-highway applications). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise in thermal management across diverse applications and its established relationships with OEM customers in both automotive and commercial building sectors.
Market Cap
$15.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.2B
Net Income TTM
$122M
Net Margin
3.8%
MOD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+22.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.06/$0.93
Revenue
$683M/$700M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.06/$0.97
Revenue
$739M/$764M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.19/$0.99
Revenue
$805M/$760M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.55
Revenue
$954M/$921M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.06/$0.93 | +14.0% | $683M/$700M | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.06/$0.97 | +9.3% | $739M/$764M | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.19/$0.99 | +20.2% | $805M/$760M | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.71/$1.55 | +10.3% | $954M/$921M | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.5B
+9.4% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
+9.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.67
+62.6% YoY
FY2
$4.78
+30.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$105M
FCF Margin: 3.3%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.43
Expected Revenue
$903M
MOD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MOD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $2.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive
25.0%
+14.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Automotive is the largest disclosed segment at 25.0% of FY 2018 revenue, up 14.1% YoY.
MOD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $174 — implies -41.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
41.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MOD
132.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+443% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MOD
132.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+528% premium
vs MOD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
132.8x
vs
5Y Average
32.8x
+304% premium
Forward PE
57.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+205%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+252%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
132.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+443%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+528%
5Y Avg
32.8x
+304%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
37.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+148%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+210%
5Y Avg
14.6x
+158%
Price/FCF
149.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+620%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+858%
5Y Avg
51.2x
+191%
Price/Sales
4.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+60%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+607%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+203%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MOD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MOD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 57.4x | 18.8x+205% | 16.3x+252% | — |
| Trailing PE | 132.8x | 24.4x+443% | 21.2x+528% | 32.8x+304% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.7x | 15.2x+148% | 12.2x+210% | 14.6x+158% |
| Price/FCF | 149.0x | 20.7x+620% | 15.6x+858% | 51.2x+191% |
| Price/Sales | 4.9x | 3.1x+60% | 0.7x+607% | 1.6x+203% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
MOD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMOD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MOD 17.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.26
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$105M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$74M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$507M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.8× FCF
~4.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$7M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
53M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMOD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Margin pressure
Modine's pivot to data center cooling is driving sales growth but hurting margins, as indicated by the FY26 outlook.
Medium
Leverage and FCF risks
The company faces potential risks related to leverage and free cash flow, as highlighted in the FY26 update.
Medium
Operational execution
Despite revenue growth, the success of Modine's strategic shift depends on effective implementation of 80/20 operational discipline.
Lower
Market volatility
Modine's stock performance may be influenced by broader geopolitical and news factors, as noted in neural network forecasts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MOD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Data center segment expansion
Modine is creating a dedicated Data Centers segment, signaling strategic focus and potential growth in this high-demand sector.
Performance Technologies spin-off
The planned spin-off of Performance Technologies could unlock shareholder value and streamline operations.
Strong thermal solutions expertise
Modine's century-long leadership in thermal solutions positions it well for growth in heating, cooling, and ventilation markets.
Attractive valuation metrics
With trailing and forward P/E ratios of 39.75 and 31.85 respectively, MOD shows growth potential at reasonable valuations.
Institutional bullish sentiment
Analysts are publishing bullish theses on MOD, indicating positive institutional interest in the company's prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MOD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$297.37
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.48
+243.9% from the low
52-Week High
$323.25
-8.0% from the high
1 Month
+20.33%
3 Month
+48.37%
YTD
+111.2%
1 Year
+209.4%
3Y CAGR
+112.5%
5Y CAGR
+80.1%
10Y CAGR
+40.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MOD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
57.4x
vs 29.9x median
+92% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.4%
vs +10.0% median
-6% below peer median
Net Margin
3.8%
vs 7.3% median
-48% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MOD MOD Modine Manufacturing Company | $15.7B | 57.4x | +9.4% | 3.8% | Buy | +20.4% |
THR THRM Gentherm Incorporated | $1.1B | 13.3x | +10.0% | 1.5% | Buy | +2.1% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $11.2B | 60.4x | +11.2% | 7.3% | Buy | -13.0% |
GTL GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. | $10.0B | 29.9x | +8.7% | -0.6% | Buy | -6.8% |
BWX BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $18.8B | 43.7x | +10.0% | 10.2% | Buy | +9.5% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $88.4B | 29.6x | +3.7% | 14.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MOD Dividend and Capital Return
MOD does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-17.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-6.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$7M
Estimated Shares Retired
23.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
53M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $0.47 | -32.1% | 1.7% | 6.5% |
| 2007 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.0% |
| 2006 | $0.70 | -67.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% |
| 2005 | $2.17 | +259.1% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2004 | $0.60 | +12.6% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsMOD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $358, implying +20.4% from the current price of $297. The bear case scenario is $136 and the bull case is $283.
02What is the MOD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MOD is $358 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $428 (+43.9% from today), and the low-end target is $325 (+9.3%). The base case model target is $215.
03Is Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock overvalued in 2026?
MOD trades at 57.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MOD in 2026 are: (1) Margin pressure — Modine's pivot to data center cooling is driving sales growth but hurting margins, as indicated by the FY26 outlook. (2) Leverage and FCF risks — The company faces potential risks related to leverage and free cash flow, as highlighted in the FY26 update. (3) Operational execution — Despite revenue growth, the success of Modine's strategic shift depends on effective implementation of 80/20 operational discipline. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Modine Manufacturing Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MOD will report consensus revenue of $3.5B (+9.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.67 (+62.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) report its next earnings?
Modine Manufacturing Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $1.43 and revenue of $903M. Over recent quarters, MOD has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Modine Manufacturing Company generate?
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) generated $105M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.3%. MOD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($7M TTM).