Upside case
Bull case
$664+142.2%
MOD would need investors to value it at roughly 128x earnings — about 75x more generous than today's 53x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering MOD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$246
-10.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $664
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
52.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.5B
MOD price targets
Three scenarios for where MOD stock could go
Current
~$274
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $274
Base
$338
Bull
$664
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$338+23.3%
At 65x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Modine Manufacturing Company
MOD · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsMarch year-end
Modine Manufacturing is a specialized industrial company that designs and produces engineered heat transfer systems and components for vehicles and commercial buildings. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Climate Solutions (commercial HVAC and data center cooling systems) and Performance Technologies (vehicle thermal management products for automotive and off-highway applications). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise in thermal management across diverse applications and its established relationships with OEM customers in both automotive and commercial building sectors.
Market Cap
$14.5B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$98M
Net Margin
3.4%
MOD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.12/$0.95
Revenue
$647M/$631M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.06/$0.93
Revenue
$683M/$700M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.06/$0.97
Revenue
$739M/$764M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.19/$0.99
Revenue
$805M/$760M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.12/$0.95 | +17.3% | $647M/$631M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.06/$0.93 | +14.0% | $683M/$700M | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.06/$0.97 | +9.3% | $739M/$764M | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.19/$0.99 | +20.2% | $805M/$760M | +5.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.1B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$3.4B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.16
+70.6% YoY
FY2
$4.22
+33.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$49M
FCF Margin: 1.7%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.51
Expected Revenue
$921M
MOD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MOD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $2.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive
25.0%
+14.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Automotive is the largest disclosed segment at 25.0% of FY 2018 revenue, up 14.1% YoY.
MOD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $146 — implies -45.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
45.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MOD
80.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+218% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MOD
80.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+309% premium
vs MOD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
80.2x
vs
5Y Average
16.9x
+375% premium
Forward PE
52.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+178%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+248%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
80.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+218%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+309%
5Y Avg
16.9x
+375%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
41.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+169%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+262%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+284%
Price/FCF
111.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+424%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+646%
5Y Avg
25.1x
+346%
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+79%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+687%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+472%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MOD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MOD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 52.9x | 19.1x+178% | 15.2x+248% | — |
| Trailing PE | 80.2x | 25.2x+218% | 19.6x+309% | 16.9x+375% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.1x | 15.3x+169% | 11.4x+262% | 10.7x+284% |
| Price/FCF | 111.8x | 21.3x+424% | 15.0x+646% | 25.1x+346% |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+79% | 0.7x+687% | 1.0x+472% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
MOD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMOD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MOD 17.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$49M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$72M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$378M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.7× FCF
~7.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$31M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
54M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMOD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is currently considered overvalued, with its stock price significantly above its GF Value™, indicating a lack of margin of safety. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is substantially higher than both its historical average and industry peers, leading to an assessment of 'Ultra Expensive.'
High Risk
Insider Selling
In the last three months, insiders have sold $3.0 million worth of shares without any corresponding buying activity, which may signal a lack of confidence in the company's future performance.
High Risk
Financial and Corporate
MOD faces risks related to financial reporting and profitability, highlighted by a negative net income of $47.4 million in the latest quarter. This raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain dividends and manage fluctuating financial results.
Medium
Ability to Sell
The company's ability to effectively sell its products is at risk due to increasing competition in the market. This could impact revenue generation and overall financial health.
Medium
Macroeconomic and Political
MOD is exposed to risks stemming from macroeconomic conditions and political environments, which can affect demand for its products and overall business operations.
Medium
Operational and Financial Health
Despite a trailing twelve months revenue of $3.1 billion, the company has a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.2062, indicating moderate leverage that could impact financial stability.
Lower
Technology and Innovation
Concerns regarding innovation and research and development may hinder MOD's ability to stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market.
Lower
Legal and Regulatory
MOD faces potential risks related to litigation and legal liabilities, which could result in financial losses or operational disruptions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MOD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Data Center Boom
Modine is experiencing substantial growth in its data center segment, with expectations of over 60% growth in FY2026. This is attributed to the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, which requires advanced cooling solutions.
Raised Guidance
Modine has raised its FY2026 guidance for net sales growth to 20%-25%, reflecting strong demand in its data center and HVAC sectors. This upward revision indicates confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Strategic Focus and Reorganization
The creation of a dedicated Data Centers segment and the planned spin-off of its Performance Technologies segment highlight Modine's strategic shift towards higher-growth, higher-margin businesses. This reorganization is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability.
Strong Historical Performance
Modine has shown strong performance over the past year, with its price increasing by 171.53%. Technical analysis indicates that it has outperformed 96.15% of all stocks, showcasing its competitive strength in the market.
Earnings Growth Potential
Analysts forecast significant earnings per share (EPS) growth in the coming years, with projections for 2027 and 2028 indicating substantial increases. This potential for earnings growth supports a bullish outlook for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MOD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$274.22
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.48
+217.1% from the low
52-Week High
$280.00
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+27.62%
3 Month
+27.12%
YTD
+94.7%
1 Year
+203.9%
3Y CAGR
+138.1%
5Y CAGR
+74.8%
10Y CAGR
+38.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MOD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
52.9x
vs 30.2x median
+75% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +13.5% median
-44% below peer median
Net Margin
3.4%
vs 7.5% median
-54% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MOD MOD Modine Manufacturing Company | $14.5B | 52.9x | +7.6% | 3.4% | Buy | -10.4% |
THR THRM Gentherm Incorporated | $946M | 11.6x | +5.0% | 1.5% | Buy | +18.8% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $8.0B | 49.6x | +19.7% | 7.5% | Buy | +21.1% |
GTL GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. | $9.9B | 16.4x | +16.7% | 0.9% | Buy | -6.7% |
BWX BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $19.7B | 46.7x | +13.5% | 10.2% | Buy | -2.4% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $87.6B | 30.2x | +3.7% | 18.9% | Buy | -3.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MOD Dividend and Capital Return
MOD returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$31M
Estimated Shares Retired
112.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
54M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $0.47 | -32.1% | 1.7% | 6.5% |
| 2007 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.0% |
| 2006 | $0.70 | -67.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% |
| 2005 | $2.17 | +259.1% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2004 | $0.60 | +12.6% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsMOD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $246, implying -10.4% from the current price of $274.
02What is the MOD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MOD is $246 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $265 (-3.4% from today), and the low-end target is $210 (-23.4%). The base case model target is $338.
03Is Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock overvalued in 2026?
MOD trades at 52.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MOD in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Concerns — Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is currently considered overvalued, with its stock price significantly above its GF Value™, indicating a lack of margin of safety. (2) Insider Selling — In the last three months, insiders have sold $3. (3) Financial and Corporate — MOD faces risks related to financial reporting and profitability, highlighted by a negative net income of $47. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Modine Manufacturing Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MOD will report consensus revenue of $3.1B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.16 (+70.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.4B in revenue.
06When does Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) report its next earnings?
Modine Manufacturing Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $1.51 and revenue of $921M. Over recent quarters, MOD has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Modine Manufacturing Company generate?
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) generated $49M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.7%. MOD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($31M TTM).