Upside case
Bull case
$16-86.2%
The bull case prices MSTR at 0x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
18 bullish · 3 bearish · 29 covering MSTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$252
+123.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $16
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.6B
MSTR price targets
Three scenarios for where MSTR stock could go
Current
~$113
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $113
Bear
$7
Base
$12
Bull
$16
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$12-89.5%
At 0x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-93.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push MSTR down roughly 93% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Strategy Inc
MSTR · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
MicroStrategy is an enterprise analytics software company that provides business intelligence platforms for data visualization, reporting, and mobile analytics. It generates revenue primarily through software licenses and subscription services (~60%) along with consulting, support, and education services (~40%). The company's key advantage is its comprehensive enterprise-grade platform with strong data governance capabilities and its early strategic investment in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.
Market Cap
$37.6B
Revenue TTM
$490M
Net Income TTM
-$12.4B
Net Margin
-2519.4%
MSTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1770.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$32.60/$-0.10
Revenue
$114M/$114M
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.42/$-0.10
Revenue
$129M/$117M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-42.93/$-0.08
Revenue
$123M/$119M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-38.25/$-0.86
Revenue
$124M/$121M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $32.60/$-0.10 | +33253.7% | $114M/$114M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.42/$-0.10 | +8354.9% | $129M/$117M | +10.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-42.93/$-0.08 | -53562.5% | $123M/$119M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $-38.25/$-0.86 | -4337.4% | $124M/$121M | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$506M
+3.1% YoY
FY2
$528M
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.70
+101.9% YoY
FY2
$0.66
-6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.6B
FCF Margin: 1551.2%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$27.34
Expected Revenue
$123M
MSTR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MSTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $431M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product Licenses And Subscription Services
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
57.0%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product Licenses And Subscription Services is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
North America is the largest reported region at 57.0%, up 4.9% YoY.
MSTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $11 — implies -90.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
90.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MSTR
-7.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
130% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MSTR
-7.4x
vs
Technology
29.0x
125% discount
vs MSTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-7.4x
vs
5Y Average
23.9x
131% discount
Forward PE
2.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-87%
Technology
22.3x
-89%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-7.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-130%
Technology
29.0x
-125%
5Y Avg
23.9x
-131%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
78.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2447%
Technology
2.4x
+3129%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+575%
Dividend Yield
1.15%
S&P 500
1.91%
-40%
Technology
1.11%
+4%
5Y Avg
0.85%
+35%
| Metric | MSTR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MSTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.4x | 18.8x-87% | 22.3x-89% | — |
| Trailing PE | -7.4x | 24.4x-130% | 29.0x-125% | 23.9x-131% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 78.7x | 3.1x+2447% | 2.4x+3129% | 11.7x+575% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.15% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.85% |
MSTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMSTR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MSTR generates $7.6B in free cash flow at a 1551.2% margin — returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$490M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
94.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2519.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-37.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1551.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-19.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-24.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-9.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
334M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMSTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Bitcoin Exposure
Strategy's massive Bitcoin holdings ($47 billion) make it highly vulnerable to Bitcoin price volatility, as seen in its $12.4 billion Q4 net loss under fair-value accounting.
High Risk
Debt Burden
With $8.2 billion in debt, Strategy faces significant financial risk if Bitcoin's value does not recover, potentially leading to liquidity issues.
Medium
Fair-Value Accounting
Fair-value accounting amplifies earnings volatility, as Strategy must report unrealized gains/losses on Bitcoin holdings, leading to large quarterly swings.
Medium
Dilution Risk
Strategy's convertible debt stack and potential equity dilution pose risks to existing shareholders, especially if Bitcoin prices remain depressed.
Lower
Analyst Divergence
Wide-ranging price targets ($160-$380) reflect uncertainty and divergent views on Strategy's future performance and Bitcoin's trajectory.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MSTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Largest Bitcoin Treasury
Strategy Inc holds 738,731 BTC, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world, which is a key bullish driver.
Bitcoin Exposure Play
The company's significant Bitcoin holdings position it as a leveraged play on Bitcoin's price appreciation.
Rebranding as Bitcoin Leader
The rebranding to Strategy and positioning as the world's first Bitcoin Treasury Company highlights its focus on Bitcoin.
Potential Bitcoin Price Upside
Bulls argue that Strategy's massive Bitcoin holdings could benefit greatly from future Bitcoin price increases.
Corporate Bitcoin Adoption
As the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy is seen as a pioneer in corporate Bitcoin adoption, which could attract investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MSTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$112.53
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.17
+8.0% from the low
52-Week High
$457.22
-75.4% from the high
1 Month
-32.47%
3 Month
-19.94%
YTD
-28.4%
1 Year
-69.5%
3Y CAGR
+53.1%
5Y CAGR
+11.7%
10Y CAGR
+19.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MSTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.4x
vs 263.7x median
-99% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.1%
vs +11.4% median
-73% below peer median
Net Margin
-2519.4%
vs -100.2% median
-2414% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MST MSTR Strategy Inc | $37.6B | 2.4x | +3.1% | -2519.4% | Buy | +123.6% |
COI COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | $43.0B | 263.7x | +9.5% | 13.8% | Buy | +44.5% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.4B | — | +12.4% | -234.8% | Buy | -12.1% |
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $10.7B | — | +10.4% | -132.8% | Buy | -3.0% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $4.4B | — | +13.9% | -67.7% | Buy | +9.6% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $14.0B | — | — | — | Buy | -14.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MSTR Dividend and Capital Return
MSTR returns 1.2% total yield, led by a 1.15% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.15%
Payout Ratio
—
How MSTR Splits Its Return
Div 1.15%
Dividend 1.15%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
334M
FAQ
7 questionsMSTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Strategy Inc (MSTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $252, implying +123.6% from the current price of $113. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $16.
02What is the MSTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MSTR is $252 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $350 (+211.0% from today), and the low-end target is $163 (+44.9%). The base case model target is $12.
03Is Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
MSTR trades at 2.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MSTR in 2026 are: (1) Bitcoin Exposure — Strategy's massive Bitcoin holdings ($47 billion) make it highly vulnerable to Bitcoin price volatility, as seen in its $12. (2) Debt Burden — With $8. (3) Fair-Value Accounting — Fair-value accounting amplifies earnings volatility, as Strategy must report unrealized gains/losses on Bitcoin holdings, leading to large quarterly swings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Strategy Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MSTR will report consensus revenue of $506M (+3.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.70 (+101.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $528M in revenue.
06When does Strategy Inc (MSTR) report its next earnings?
Strategy Inc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $27.34 and revenue of $123M. Over recent quarters, MSTR has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Strategy Inc generate?
Strategy Inc (MSTR) generated $7.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1551.2%. MSTR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).