Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MSTR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
18 bullish · 3 bearish · 29 covering MSTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$281
+50.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $51.9B
MSTR price targets
Three scenarios for where MSTR stock could go
Current
~$187
Confidence
23 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Strategy Inc
MSTR · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
MicroStrategy is an enterprise analytics software company that provides business intelligence platforms for data visualization, reporting, and mobile analytics. It generates revenue primarily through software licenses and subscription services (~60%) along with consulting, support, and education services (~40%). The company's key advantage is its comprehensive enterprise-grade platform with strong data governance capabilities and its early strategic investment in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.
Market Cap
$51.9B
Revenue TTM
$490M
Net Income TTM
-$12.6B
Net Margin
-2566.2%
MSTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1380.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-16.49/$-2.44
Revenue
$111M/$116M
Q3 2025
EPS
$32.60/$-0.10
Revenue
$114M/$114M
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.42/$-0.10
Revenue
$129M/$117M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-42.93/$-0.08
Revenue
$123M/$119M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-16.49/$-2.44 | -575.8% | $111M/$116M | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.60/$-0.10 | +33253.7% | $114M/$114M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.42/$-0.10 | +8354.9% | $129M/$117M | +10.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-42.93/$-0.08 | -53562.5% | $123M/$119M | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$484M
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$490M
+1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.72
+178.2% YoY
FY2
$-0.13
-101.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.6B
FCF Margin: 1551.2%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-3.41
Expected Revenue
$121M
MSTR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MSTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $431M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product Licenses And Subscription Services
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
57.0%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product Licenses And Subscription Services is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
North America is the largest reported region at 57.0%, up 4.9% YoY.
MSTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $5370 — implies +2930.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2930.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MSTR
-12.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
149% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MSTR
-12.3x
vs
Technology
27.5x
145% discount
vs MSTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-12.3x
vs
5Y Average
23.9x
151% discount
Forward PE
2.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-87%
Technology
21.7x
-89%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-12.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-149%
Technology
27.5x
-145%
5Y Avg
23.9x
-151%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Technology
19.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
108.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3369%
Technology
2.4x
+4403%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+832%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
S&P 500
1.88%
-63%
Technology
1.18%
-41%
5Y Avg
0.85%
-19%
| Metric | MSTR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MSTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.5x | 19.1x-87% | 21.7x-89% | — |
| Trailing PE | -12.3x | 25.2x-149% | 27.5x-145% | 23.9x-151% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 19.8x | — |
| Price/Sales | 108.7x | 3.1x+3369% | 2.4x+4403% | 11.7x+832% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 0.85% |
MSTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMSTR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MSTR generates $7.6B in free cash flow at a 1551.2% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$490M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-2853.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2566.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-37.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1551.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-19.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-25.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
278M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMSTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Bitcoin Volatility
MicroStrategy's stock price is highly correlated with Bitcoin's price movements. Extreme swings in Bitcoin's value can lead to amplified volatility in MSTR stock, making it a high-beta investment.
High Risk
Debt Burden and Financial Obligations
The company has taken on significant debt to finance its Bitcoin acquisitions, including convertible bonds and preferred stock. Concerns exist regarding MicroStrategy's ability to service these obligations, especially if Bitcoin prices fall, potentially leading to margin calls or forced liquidations.
Medium
Regulatory Uncertainty
The evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies presents a risk to MicroStrategy. Changes in regulations could negatively impact Bitcoin and, consequently, the company's operations and profitability.
Medium
Dilution and Shareholder Value
MicroStrategy frequently issues shares and convertible debt to fund its Bitcoin purchases, leading to dilution for existing shareholders. This dilution could reduce the value of individual holdings, particularly during market downturns.
Medium
NAV Premium Compression
MicroStrategy's stock often trades at a premium to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its Bitcoin holdings. If investor sentiment shifts or this premium contracts, the stock price could decline sharply.
Lower
Index Exclusion Risk
There's a risk that MicroStrategy could be removed from major stock indices if its crypto ratio becomes too high relative to its core business. Such exclusion could trigger significant selling pressure from passive funds tracking these indices.
Lower
Operational and Structural Risks
The company's reliance on complex financial instruments and its strategy of leveraging Bitcoin holdings can lead to misunderstandings about its financial health. Analysts view this strategy as potentially unsustainable in the long term.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MSTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Bitcoin Holdings as a Primary Asset
MicroStrategy has amassed a significant amount of Bitcoin, making it one of the largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency. The company views Bitcoin as a superior asset class and a hedge against inflation and traditional financial market volatility.
Leveraged Exposure to Bitcoin
By using its software business's cash flows, as well as capital raised through equity and debt issuances, MicroStrategy can acquire more Bitcoin. This strategy effectively transforms its stock into a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, offering amplified gains if Bitcoin's price rises.
Yield-Generating Treasury Operations
MicroStrategy explores strategies to generate yield from its Bitcoin holdings, such as lending Bitcoin to institutional borrowers or using it as collateral for loans. This aims to create a passive income stream and provide liquidity without selling Bitcoin, thus preserving upside potential.
Insider Buying
Instances of company insiders, including the CEO, purchasing company stock have been noted, which can be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the company's future.
Software Business as a Foundation
While Bitcoin is the dominant focus, MicroStrategy's enterprise analytics and business intelligence software business provides recurring revenue and cash flow, supporting its operations and Bitcoin acquisition strategy. The company is also integrating advanced features like generative AI into its platform.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MSTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$186.82
52W Range Position
23%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.17
+79.3% from the low
52-Week High
$457.22
-59.1% from the high
1 Month
+46.31%
3 Month
+38.46%
YTD
+18.9%
1 Year
-51.6%
3Y CAGR
+85.1%
5Y CAGR
+25.1%
10Y CAGR
+26.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MSTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.5x
vs 67.8x median
-96% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +36.9% median
-96% below peer median
Net Margin
-2566.2%
vs -33.2% median
-7619% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MST MSTR Strategy Inc | $51.9B | 2.5x | +1.3% | -2566.2% | Buy | +50.3% |
COI COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | $56.9B | 67.8x | +3.2% | — | Buy | +22.9% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.0B | — | +29.5% | — | Buy | +23.8% |
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $9.0B | — | +38.2% | — | Buy | +17.8% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $3.7B | — | +40.2% | -33.2% | Buy | +39.4% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $12.1B | — | +36.9% | — | Buy | -27.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MSTR Dividend and Capital Return
MSTR returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.69% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
Payout Ratio
—
How MSTR Splits Its Return
Div 0.69%
Dividend 0.69%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
278M
FAQ
7 questionsMSTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Strategy Inc (MSTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $281, implying +50.3% from the current price of $187.
02What is the MSTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MSTR is $281 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $450 (+140.9% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (-1.0%).
03Is Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
MSTR trades at 2.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MSTR in 2026 are: (1) Bitcoin Volatility — MicroStrategy's stock price is highly correlated with Bitcoin's price movements. (2) Debt Burden and Financial Obligations — The company has taken on significant debt to finance its Bitcoin acquisitions, including convertible bonds and preferred stock. (3) Regulatory Uncertainty — The evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies presents a risk to MicroStrategy. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Strategy Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MSTR will report consensus revenue of $484M (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.72 (+178.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $490M in revenue.
06When does Strategy Inc (MSTR) report its next earnings?
Strategy Inc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-3.41 and revenue of $121M. Over recent quarters, MSTR has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Strategy Inc generate?
Strategy Inc (MSTR) generated $7.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1551.2%. MSTR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).