Upside case
Bull case
$755+247.2%
MTB would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 29x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
48
analysts
15 bullish · 4 bearish · 48 covering MTB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
29
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$238
+9.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$214 – $755
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $33.4B
MTB price targets
Three scenarios for where MTB stock could go
Current
~$217
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $217
Bear
$214
Base
$302
Bull
$755
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$302+38.9%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$214-1.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push MTB down roughly 2% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
M&T Bank Corporation
MTB · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
M&T Bank is a regional bank holding company that provides commercial and retail banking services primarily in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States. It makes money through net interest income from loans and securities (about 70% of revenue) and non-interest income from fees for banking services, mortgage banking, and wealth management. Its key advantage is deep regional market penetration and long-standing relationships with middle-market commercial clients—particularly in Buffalo, New York where it dominates.
Market Cap
$33.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
MTB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.28/$3.99
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.87/$4.43
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.67/$4.48
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.18/$4.02
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.28/$3.99 | +7.3% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.87/$4.43 | +9.9% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.67/$4.48 | +4.2% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.18/$4.02 | +4.0% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.3B
-8.1% YoY
FY2
$13.5B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.75
+5.9% YoY
FY2
$20.34
+8.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.1B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MTB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MTB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $743M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Banking
63.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Retail Banking is the largest disclosed segment at 63.4% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MTB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $207 — implies -4.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MTB
14.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
41% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MTB
14.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+11% premium
vs MTB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.9x
vs
5Y Average
11.6x
+28% premium
Forward PE
11.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-39%
Financial Services
10.5x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-41%
Financial Services
13.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
11.6x
+28%
PEG Ratio
11.77x
S&P 500
1.75x
+574%
Financial Services
1.03x
+1047%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-55%
Financial Services
11.4x
-40%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+116%
Price/FCF
9.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-54%
Financial Services
10.6x
-7%
5Y Avg
11.1x
-11%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-20%
Financial Services
2.3x
+11%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-3%
Dividend Yield
2.46%
S&P 500
1.88%
+31%
Financial Services
2.68%
-8%
5Y Avg
3.27%
-25%
| Metric | MTB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MTB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.7x | 19.1x-39% | 10.5x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.9x | 25.2x-41% | 13.4x+11% | 11.6x+28% |
| PEG Ratio | 11.77x | 1.75x+574% | 1.03x+1047% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9x | 15.3x-55% | 11.4x-40% | 3.2x+116% |
| Price/FCF | 9.8x | 21.3x-54% | 10.6x | 11.1x-11% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-20% | 2.3x+11% | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.27% |
MTB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMTB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MTB generates 9.7% ROE and 1.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.71
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$20.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$7.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
2.5%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$746M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
167M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMTB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
M&T’s net interest income is highly sensitive to Federal Reserve rate changes; the bank’s net interest margin contracted in 2024 as rates adjusted, threatening future profitability. A 1% rise in rates could compress margins by up to 30 basis points, directly impacting earnings.
Medium
Credit Quality & Loan Risk
The bank has noted elevated credit losses and a low allowance for loan losses relative to nonperforming loans, indicating potential deterioration in loan quality. Recent reductions in commercial and commercial real estate loan provisions suggest a higher risk of defaults that could erode capital.
Medium
Regional Concentration
M&T’s operations are concentrated in the Northeast and Mid‑Atlantic, exposing it to localized economic downturns. Adverse conditions in these regions could increase operating costs and trigger impairment charges.
Medium
Competition & Market Disruption
The bank faces intense competition from credit unions, fintech firms, and larger national banks, all of which offer innovative digital products. Failure to keep pace with technological advancements could erode M&T’s market share and pricing power.
Lower
Regulatory Changes
The banking sector is heavily regulated; any shifts in regulatory policy could limit M&T’s operational flexibility and growth prospects. New capital or liquidity requirements could increase compliance costs and restrict lending capacity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MTB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Institutional Investor Confidence Surge
Institutional investors have markedly increased their holdings in M&T Bank, signaling strong confidence in the bank's future performance. The uptick in institutional stakes reflects growing belief in the bank's stability and growth prospects.
Analyst Rating Upgrades
Several research firms have upgraded their ratings for MTB, moving from neutral to buy or strong buy. The consensus shift indicates analysts view the bank favorably amid its solid fundamentals.
Diversified Banking Footprint
M&T Bank offers a broad spectrum of banking and financial services, from retail to commercial lending. This diversified model provides resilience against market fluctuations and economic downturns.
Robust Financial Growth
The bank's net interest margin rose to 3.69%, while 2025 revenue grew 5.95% to $9.19 billion and earnings increased 10.21% to $2.70 billion. EPS also climbed from $14.71 in Q4 2024 to $17.10 in Q4 2025, underscoring earnings momentum.
Positive Technical Signals
Technical analysis across multiple timeframes consistently rates M&T Bank as a strong buy. These signals suggest favorable short‑term momentum for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MTB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$217.42
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$172.33
+26.2% from the low
52-Week High
$239.00
-9.0% from the high
1 Month
+2.55%
3 Month
-8.65%
YTD
+6.6%
1 Year
+26.0%
3Y CAGR
+23.2%
5Y CAGR
+6.0%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MTB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.7x
vs 12.2x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-8.1%
vs -1.5% median
-452% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MTB MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $33.4B | 11.7x | -8.1% | — | Hold | +9.3% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28.3B | 12.7x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +10.4% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.3B | 11.4x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +22.5% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.5B | 10.8x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.1% |
KEY KEY KeyCorp | $24.5B | 12.2x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +4.0% |
FIT FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $34.1B | 16.5x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +11.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MTB Dividend and Capital Return
MTB returns 4.7% total yield, led by a 2.48% dividend, raised 9 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.3%
Dividend Yield
2.48%
Payout Ratio
34.6%
How MTB Splits Its Return
Div 2.48%
Buyback 2.3%
Dividend 2.48%Buybacks 2.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.9%
5Y Div CAGR
5.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$746M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
167M
At 2.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.70 | +6.5% | — | — |
| 2024 | $5.35 | +2.9% | 2.4% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $5.20 | +8.3% | 2.6% | 6.4% |
| 2022 | $4.80 | +6.7% | 7.6% | 10.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsMTB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 29 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $238, implying +9.3% from the current price of $217. The bear case scenario is $214 and the bull case is $755.
02What is the MTB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MTB is $238 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (+17.3% from today), and the low-end target is $225 (+3.5%). The base case model target is $302.
03Is M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) stock overvalued in 2026?
MTB trades at 11.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MTB in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Sensitivity — M&T’s net interest income is highly sensitive to Federal Reserve rate changes; the bank’s net interest margin contracted in 2024 as rates adjusted, threatening future profitability. (2) Credit Quality & Loan Risk — The bank has noted elevated credit losses and a low allowance for loan losses relative to nonperforming loans, indicating potential deterioration in loan quality. (3) Regional Concentration — M&T’s operations are concentrated in the Northeast and Mid‑Atlantic, exposing it to localized economic downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is M&T Bank Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MTB will report consensus revenue of $12.3B (-8.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.75 (+5.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.5B in revenue.
06When does M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MTB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does M&T Bank Corporation generate?
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) generated $4.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MTB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.5% yield) and share repurchases ($746M TTM).