Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NBIS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering NBIS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$169
-13.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.8B
NBIS price targets
Three scenarios for where NBIS stock could go
Current
~$195
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nebius Group N.V.
NBIS · NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Nebius Group is a technology company that builds full-stack infrastructure for the global AI industry, including cloud platforms, GPU clusters, and developer tools. It generates revenue primarily through its Nebius AI cloud platform—which serves intensive AI workloads—alongside data services from Toloka AI, edtech from TripleTen, and autonomous driving technology from Avride. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated full-stack approach to AI infrastructure—combining hardware, cloud services, and specialized tools—and its established R&D expertise across multiple AI domains.
Market Cap
$42.8B
Revenue TTM
$534M
Net Income TTM
$102M
Net Margin
19.0%
NBIS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
20%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-4.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.43/$-0.45
Revenue
$38M/$58M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.38/$-0.50
Revenue
$105M/$105M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.39/$-0.56
Revenue
$146M/$158M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.99/$-0.58
Revenue
$228M/$246M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.43/$-0.45 | +2.2% | $38M/$58M | -34.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.38/$-0.50 | +24.0% | $105M/$105M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.39/$-0.56 | +29.9% | $146M/$158M | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.99/$-0.58 | -70.7% | $228M/$246M | -7.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+114.6% YoY
FY2
$2.3B
+102.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.67
-516.0% YoY
FY2
$-2.15
-28.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.3B
FCF Margin: -422.6%
Next Earnings
May 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.81
Expected Revenue
$375M
NBIS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NBIS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $7 — implies -95.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
95.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NBIS
1773.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+6930% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
NBIS
1773.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
+11307% premium
vs NBIS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
1773.5x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Communication Services
13.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
1773.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+6930%
Communication Services
15.5x
+11307%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Communication Services
0.66x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Communication Services
8.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Communication Services
11.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
80.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2480%
Communication Services
1.0x
+7602%
5Y Avg
40.0x
+102%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Communication Services
3.38%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NBIS | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg NBIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 13.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 1773.5x | 25.2x+6930% | 15.5x+11307% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.66x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 8.7x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 11.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 80.8x | 3.1x+2480% | 1.0x+7602% | 40.0x+102% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 3.38% | — |
NBIS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 2 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNBIS Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for NBIS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$534M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+410.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-113.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.40
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-422.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-13.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-13.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
253M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNBIS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Nvidia Supply Chain Dependency
NBIS relies on Nvidia as its primary GPU supplier; any disruption or limitation in Nvidia’s supply chain could halt NBIS’s data‑center operations and delay revenue generation. The company’s entire hardware strategy is tied to Nvidia’s product availability and pricing, making this a critical operational lever.
High Risk
CapEx Execution Risk
NBIS plans $16‑20 billion in capital expenditures to build and expand data centers. Delays or cost overruns could force contract renegotiations, erode margins, and trigger additional debt or equity raises, directly impacting shareholder value.
Medium
Client Concentration (Meta)
A significant portion of NBIS’s revenue comes from Meta. A shift in Meta’s AI strategy or a reduction in its spend could materially reduce NBIS’s top line and profitability.
Medium
Physical Data Center Delivery Risk
Beyond financial planning, the physical construction and maintenance of data centers pose execution challenges. Failure to deliver on time or within budget could impede growth and expose the company to penalties or lost contracts.
Lower
AI Bubble / Market Sentiment
Market concerns about an AI bubble and the sustainability of AI demand could dampen investor enthusiasm for high‑growth tech stocks like NBIS, potentially leading to price corrections.
Lower
Insider Selling Impact
Recent sales of shares by the CEO and CTO may be interpreted negatively by the market, potentially capping short‑term upside and signaling internal doubts about the company’s prospects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NBIS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Explosive Revenue Growth
NBIS’s Q3 2024 revenue surged to $43.3 million, a jump from $5 million a year earlier. In Q2 2025 revenue rose 625% YoY to $105.1 million, and the company now projects an annualized run‑rate of $750 million to $1 billion by year‑end 2025, with ARR guidance of $900 million to $1.1 billion.
Strategic Funding & Partnerships
The firm secured a $700 million private placement led by NVIDIA, Accel, and Orbis, and received a $72 million investment from Bezos Expeditions into its Toloka data business. NVIDIA’s $2 billion strategic investment designates NBIS as a Preferred Provider, guaranteeing GPU hardware priority during chip shortages.
Aggressive AI Infrastructure Expansion
NBIS is building GPU clusters in Kansas City, New Jersey, and Paris, while tripling capacity in Finland. It is deploying NVIDIA’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs and plans a 310 MW AI factory in Finland to meet European sovereign AI demand.
Full‑Stack AI Platform & Subsidiaries
The company offers an AI‑native cloud platform and AI Studio that support the entire machine‑learning lifecycle, backed by 850 AI engineers. Subsidiaries include Toloka (AI data), TripleTen (edtech), and Avride (autonomous‑driving software).
Acquisition Potential
NBIS is reportedly in talks to acquire AI21 Labs, an Israeli enterprise‑AI startup, which could transform the company from a GPU cloud provider into a full AI stack enterprise.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NBIS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$195.09
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$23.25
+739.1% from the low
52-Week High
$195.99
-0.5% from the high
1 Month
+73.35%
3 Month
+126.59%
YTD
+116.9%
1 Year
+679.1%
3Y CAGR
+113.7%
5Y CAGR
+57.7%
10Y CAGR
+25.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NBIS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 38.4x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+114.6%
vs +11.3% median
+910% above peer median
Net Margin
19.0%
vs 14.4% median
+32% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBI NBIS Nebius Group N.V. | $42.8B | — | +114.6% | 19.0% | Buy | -13.5% |
LGN LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $4.6B | 26.1x | +11.3% | 19.3% | Buy | +15.1% |
GPU GPUS Hyperscale Data, Inc. | $140775 | — | -29.8% | -38.8% | — | — |
ANE ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $185.1B | 41.5x | +21.2% | 38.3% | Buy | +26.7% |
VRT VRT Vertiv Holdings Co | $137.9B | 55.9x | +25.6% | 14.4% | Buy | -8.7% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.96T | 35.3x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNBIS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $169, implying -13.5% from the current price of $195.
02What is the NBIS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NBIS is $169 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $232 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $126 (-35.4%).
03Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for NBIS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NBIS in 2026 are: (1) Nvidia Supply Chain Dependency — NBIS relies on Nvidia as its primary GPU supplier; any disruption or limitation in Nvidia’s supply chain could halt NBIS’s data‑center operations and delay revenue generation. (2) CapEx Execution Risk — NBIS plans $16‑20 billion in capital expenditures to build and expand data centers. (3) Client Concentration (Meta) — A significant portion of NBIS’s revenue comes from Meta. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nebius Group N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NBIS will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+114.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.67 (-516.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.3B in revenue.
06When does Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) report its next earnings?
Nebius Group N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-13. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.81 and revenue of $375M. Over recent quarters, NBIS has beaten EPS estimates 60% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nebius Group N.V. generate?
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) had a free cash outflow of $2.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 422.6%. NBIS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).