Upside case
Bull case
$52-81.9%
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NBIS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
8
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 8 covering NBIS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$196
-31.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$25 – $52
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
8
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $68.8B
NBIS price targets
Three scenarios for where NBIS stock could go
Current
~$287
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $287
Bear
$25
Base
$39
Bull
$52
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$39-86.2%
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$25-91.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NBIS down roughly 91% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nebius Group N.V.
NBIS · NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Nebius Group is a technology company that builds full-stack infrastructure for the global AI industry, including cloud platforms, GPU clusters, and developer tools. It generates revenue primarily through its Nebius AI cloud platform—which serves intensive AI workloads—alongside data services from Toloka AI, edtech from TripleTen, and autonomous driving technology from Avride. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated full-stack approach to AI infrastructure—combining hardware, cloud services, and specialized tools—and its established R&D expertise across multiple AI domains.
Market Cap
$68.8B
Revenue TTM
$878M
Net Income TTM
$836M
Net Margin
95.3%
NBIS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.38/$-0.50
Revenue
$105M/$105M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.39/$-0.56
Revenue
$146M/$158M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.99/$-0.58
Revenue
$228M/$246M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.23/$-0.77
Revenue
$399M/$375M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.38/$-0.50 | +24.0% | $105M/$105M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.39/$-0.56 | +29.9% | $146M/$158M | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.99/$-0.58 | -70.7% | $228M/$246M | -7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.23/$-0.77 | +70.0% | $399M/$375M | +6.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.0B
+14.0% YoY
FY2
$1.1B
+11.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.73
-73.1% YoY
FY2
$0.88
+20.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.5B
FCF Margin: -281.6%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.56
Expected Revenue
$593M
NBIS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NBIS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $340M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
US
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NBIS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $157 — implies -45.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
45.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NBIS
2606.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+10560% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
NBIS
2606.3x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
+16936% premium
vs NBIS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
2606.3x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Communication Services
11.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
2606.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+10560%
Communication Services
15.3x
+16936%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Communication Services
0.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Communication Services
9.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Communication Services
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
129.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+4100%
Communication Services
1.0x
+12641%
5Y Avg
40.0x
+225%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Communication Services
3.43%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NBIS | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg NBIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 11.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 2606.3x | 24.4x+10560% | 15.3x+16936% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 9.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 11.4x | — |
| Price/Sales | 129.9x | 3.1x+4100% | 1.0x+12641% | 40.0x+225% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.43% | — |
NBIS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 2 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNBIS Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for NBIS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$878M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+490.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
47.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-68.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
95.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-281.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-13.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-13.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
240M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNBIS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Capex and delivery risk
The bear case highlights significant delivery risk against $20-25 billion of FY2026 capex, raising concerns about execution.
High Risk
Revenue conversion uncertainty
While the bull case projects $9 billion annual revenue by FY2027-2028, there is skepticism about backlog conversion to actual revenue.
Medium
Unit economics concerns
Comparisons between Nebius AI infrastructure and CoreWeave unit economics suggest potential profitability challenges.
Medium
Hypergrowth sustainability
Despite 352% YoY revenue growth from 2024 to 2025, sustaining such explosive growth may be difficult.
Lower
Market valuation scrutiny
With a market cap of $24-25 billion, the stock's valuation may face pressure if growth targets are missed.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NBIS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI infrastructure ambitions
The company's focus on AI infrastructure and long-term scalability driven by GPU deployment plans is a key bullish driver.
Undervaluation versus projected ARR
The stock is seen as undervalued relative to its projected annual recurring revenue (ARR), presenting a growth opportunity.
Hidden value from adjacent businesses
Adjacent businesses like ClickHouse contribute hidden value, enhancing the overall investment case for Nebius Group.
GPU-driven scalability
The company's strategic GPU deployment plans are expected to drive significant scalability and operational efficiency.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses from analysts highlight the company's growth potential and market positioning.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NBIS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$286.69
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$43.89
+553.2% from the low
52-Week High
$298.80
-4.1% from the high
1 Month
+43.52%
3 Month
+141.81%
YTD
+218.7%
1 Year
+493.3%
3Y CAGR
+142.9%
5Y CAGR
+70.3%
10Y CAGR
+30.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NBIS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 38.5x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+14.0%
vs +14.6% median
-4% below peer median
Net Margin
95.3%
vs 14.4% median
+563% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBI NBIS Nebius Group N.V. | $68.8B | — | +14.0% | 95.3% | Buy | -31.6% |
LGN LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $5.5B | 30.3x | +12.0% | 55.9% | Buy | -3.5% |
GPU GPUS Hyperscale Data, Inc. | $137M | — | +16.6% | -76.0% | — | — |
ANE ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $213.6B | 46.7x | +14.6% | 38.3% | Buy | +9.3% |
VRT VRT Vertiv Holdings Co | $127.9B | 51.6x | +20.6% | 14.4% | Buy | +12.6% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNBIS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 8 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $196, implying -31.6% from the current price of $287. The bear case scenario is $25 and the bull case is $52.
02What is the NBIS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NBIS is $196 based on 8 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (-11.1% from today), and the low-end target is $129 (-55.0%). The base case model target is $39.
03Is Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for NBIS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NBIS in 2026 are: (1) Capex and delivery risk — The bear case highlights significant delivery risk against $20-25 billion of FY2026 capex, raising concerns about execution. (2) Revenue conversion uncertainty — While the bull case projects $9 billion annual revenue by FY2027-2028, there is skepticism about backlog conversion to actual revenue. (3) Unit economics concerns — Comparisons between Nebius AI infrastructure and CoreWeave unit economics suggest potential profitability challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nebius Group N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NBIS will report consensus revenue of $1.0B (+14.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.73 (-73.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.1B in revenue.
06When does Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) report its next earnings?
Nebius Group N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.56 and revenue of $593M. Over recent quarters, NBIS has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nebius Group N.V. generate?
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) had a free cash outflow of $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 281.6%. NBIS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).