Upside case
Bull case
$411+50.3%
AMZN would need investors to value it at roughly 53x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
94
analysts
84 bullish · 1 bearish · 94 covering AMZN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
84
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$307
+12.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $411
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
94
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $2.94T
AMZN price targets
Three scenarios for where AMZN stock could go
Current
~$274
Confidence
85 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $274
Bear
$67
Base
$384
Bull
$411
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$384+40.4%
At 49x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-75.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 26x multiple contraction could push AMZN down roughly 76% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Amazon is a global e-commerce and technology giant that operates online marketplaces, physical stores, and cloud computing services. It generates revenue primarily from online retail sales (~80% of total), Amazon Web Services cloud computing (~15%), and advertising/subscription services like Prime. Its key competitive advantage is an immense logistics network and data infrastructure moat—including AWS's dominant cloud position—that creates massive scale economies and ecosystem lock-in.
Market Cap
$2.94T
Revenue TTM
$742.8B
Net Income TTM
$90.8B
Net Margin
12.2%
AMZN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+33.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.68/$1.31
Revenue
$167.7B/$161.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.95/$1.57
Revenue
$180.2B/$177.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.95/$1.97
Revenue
$213.4B/$211.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.78/$1.63
Revenue
$181.5B/$177.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.68/$1.31 | +28.2% | $167.7B/$161.8B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.95/$1.57 | +24.2% | $180.2B/$177.9B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.95/$1.97 | -1.0% | $213.4B/$211.5B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.78/$1.63 | +70.6% | $181.5B/$177.3B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$817.0B
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$921.4B
+12.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.38
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$10.06
+20.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.5B
FCF Margin: -0.3%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.64
Expected Revenue
$177.1B
AMZN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AMZN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $716.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Online Stores
37.6%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Segment
59.5%
-2.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Online Stores is the largest disclosed segment at 37.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.0% YoY.
North America Segment is the largest reported region at 59.5%, down 2.7% YoY.
AMZN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $237 — implies -11.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMZN
38.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+52% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
AMZN
38.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+98% premium
vs AMZN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.1x
vs
5Y Average
43.9x
13% discount
Forward PE
35.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+84%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+132%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+52%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+98%
5Y Avg
43.9x
-13%
PEG Ratio
1.36x
S&P 500
1.72x
-20%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+36%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+82%
5Y Avg
20.9x
-1%
Price/FCF
382.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+1713%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+2516%
5Y Avg
60.5x
+532%
Price/Sales
4.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+31%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+474%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+34%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AMZN | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg AMZN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.1x | 19.1x+84% | 15.1x+132% | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.1x | 25.1x+52% | 19.3x+98% | 43.9x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.36x | 1.72x-20% | 0.91x+50% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6x | 15.2x+36% | 11.3x+82% | 20.9x |
| Price/FCF | 382.3x | 21.1x+1713% | 14.6x+2516% | 60.5x+532% |
| Price/Sales | 4.1x | 3.1x+31% | 0.7x+474% | 3.1x+34% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
AMZN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMZN Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AMZN 14.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$742.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-0.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$86.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$66.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
10.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMZN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Antitrust & Regulatory Risk
Amazon faces escalating antitrust investigations, notably in California, that could trigger substantial fines and impose restrictive operational agreements on its third‑party marketplace. Such regulatory actions would increase compliance costs and potentially limit growth avenues, directly impacting profitability.
High Risk
Cloud Growth & Valuation Risk
Amazon Web Services, a key profit engine, is experiencing slowing growth as competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure expand their market share. A prolonged slowdown could lead to a valuation downgrade if AWS is perceived as a mature, low‑growth business, eroding shareholder value.
Medium
Competitive Margin Pressure
Walmart’s e‑commerce revenues are accelerating faster than Amazon’s, intensifying price wars and driving up logistics costs. This competitive pressure could squeeze Amazon’s profit margins and erode its market share in the retail segment.
Medium
Macro‑Economic Exposure
Amazon is vulnerable to inflation, rising interest rates, and recession fears that dampen consumer discretionary spending and advertising demand. Higher wage, transportation, construction, and energy costs could further compress profitability.
Medium
Capital Expenditure Risk
Amazon’s heavy investment in fulfillment centers, data centers, and new technologies carries the risk of overcapacity or delayed returns. If these investments underperform, operating results may fluctuate more sharply, affecting earnings stability.
Lower
IT Reliability Risk
Power outages, system interruptions, or cybersecurity breaches could disrupt Amazon’s operations, reduce sales, and damage its reputation. While unlikely to cause a prolonged outage, such events could still impact short‑term performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMZN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AWS Growth & AI Dominance
AWS remains Amazon’s primary profit engine, with a substantial contracted backlog that is expected to drive operating margin expansion. The division’s focus on AI infrastructure and its custom chip line positions it as a formidable competitor in the semiconductor space.
Advertising Revenue Surge
Amazon’s advertising arm is growing robustly, fueled by AI-powered tools that enhance targeting and performance. The high‑margin nature of this segment adds significant top‑line lift.
Retail & E‑commerce Strength
North American retail operations have improved profitability, while Amazon continues to invest heavily in logistics and AI to boost efficiency and customer experience. These initiatives support sustained growth in the core e‑commerce business.
Strategic AI & Infrastructure Investment
Amazon’s capital expenditures are heavily weighted toward AI infrastructure, data centers, and logistics. This strategic focus is intended to underpin long‑term returns and reinforce its competitive advantage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMZN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$273.52
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$183.85
+48.8% from the low
52-Week High
$278.56
-1.8% from the high
1 Month
+28.54%
3 Month
+22.83%
YTD
+20.8%
1 Year
+46.8%
3Y CAGR
+37.3%
5Y CAGR
+10.8%
10Y CAGR
+23.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMZN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.1x
vs 28.9x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.0%
vs +7.0% median
+42% above peer median
Net Margin
12.2%
vs 32.8% median
-63% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.70T | 28.9x | +14.1% | 37.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.53T | 20.0x | +16.1% | 32.8% | Buy | +35.8% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.17T | 33.4x | +4.0% | 27.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsAMZN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 94 analysts covering the stock, 84 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $307, implying +12.2% from the current price of $274. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $411.
02What is the AMZN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMZN is $307 based on 94 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $333 (+21.7% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-36.0%). The base case model target is $384.
03Is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMZN trades at 35.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMZN in 2026 are: (1) Antitrust & Regulatory Risk — Amazon faces escalating antitrust investigations, notably in California, that could trigger substantial fines and impose restrictive operational agreements on its third‑party marketplace. (2) Cloud Growth & Valuation Risk — Amazon Web Services, a key profit engine, is experiencing slowing growth as competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure expand their market share. (3) Competitive Margin Pressure — Walmart’s e‑commerce revenues are accelerating faster than Amazon’s, intensifying price wars and driving up logistics costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Amazon.com, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMZN will report consensus revenue of $817.0B (+10.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.38 (+0.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $921.4B in revenue.
06When does Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) report its next earnings?
Amazon.com, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.64 and revenue of $177.1B. Over recent quarters, AMZN has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Amazon.com, Inc. generate?
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) had a free cash outflow of $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.3%. AMZN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).