Upside case
Bull case
$411+68.2%
AMZN would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
94
analysts
85 bullish · 1 bearish · 94 covering AMZN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
85
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$308
+25.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$197 – $411
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
94
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $2.63T
AMZN price targets
Three scenarios for where AMZN stock could go
Current
~$244
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $244
Bear
$197
Base
$312
Bull
$411
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$312+27.7%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$197-19.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push AMZN down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Amazon is a global e-commerce and technology giant that operates online marketplaces, physical stores, and cloud computing services. It generates revenue primarily from online retail sales (~80% of total), Amazon Web Services cloud computing (~15%), and advertising/subscription services like Prime. Its key competitive advantage is an immense logistics network and data infrastructure moat—including AWS's dominant cloud position—that creates massive scale economies and ecosystem lock-in.
Market Cap
$2.63T
Revenue TTM
$742.8B
Net Income TTM
$90.8B
Net Margin
12.2%
AMZN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+33.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.68/$1.31
Revenue
$167.7B/$161.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.95/$1.57
Revenue
$180.2B/$177.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.95/$1.97
Revenue
$213.4B/$211.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.78/$1.63
Revenue
$181.5B/$177.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.68/$1.31 | +28.2% | $167.7B/$161.8B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.95/$1.57 | +24.2% | $180.2B/$177.9B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.95/$1.97 | -1.0% | $213.4B/$211.5B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.78/$1.63 | +70.6% | $181.5B/$177.3B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$827.6B
+11.4% YoY
FY2
$913.4B
+10.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.63
+3.4% YoY
FY2
$9.16
+6.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.5B
FCF Margin: -0.3%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.82
Expected Revenue
$196.2B
AMZN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AMZN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $716.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Online Stores
37.6%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Segment
59.5%
-2.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Online Stores is the largest disclosed segment at 37.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.0% YoY.
North America Segment is the largest reported region at 59.5%, down 2.7% YoY.
AMZN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $206 — implies -15.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMZN
34.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+39% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
AMZN
34.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+61% premium
vs AMZN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.1x
vs
5Y Average
43.9x
22% discount
Forward PE
27.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+48%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+70%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+39%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+61%
5Y Avg
43.9x
-22%
PEG Ratio
1.22x
S&P 500
1.66x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+22%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+52%
5Y Avg
20.9x
-12%
Price/FCF
341.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1550%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+2095%
5Y Avg
60.5x
+464%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+425%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+20%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AMZN | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg AMZN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.8x | 18.8x+48% | 16.3x+70% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.1x | 24.4x+39% | 21.2x+61% | 43.9x-22% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.22x | 1.66x-27% | 0.92x+32% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5x | 15.2x+22% | 12.2x+52% | 20.9x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 341.6x | 20.7x+1550% | 15.6x+2095% | 60.5x+464% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+19% | 0.7x+425% | 3.1x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
AMZN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMZN Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AMZN 14.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$742.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-0.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$86.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$66.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
10.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMZN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Capex Surge
Amazon's $200B+ AI capex commitment for 2026 compresses near-term free cash flow and raises long-term ROI concerns.
High Risk
Valuation Sensitivity
High capital intensity makes valuation models highly sensitive to long-term growth assumptions, creating downside risk.
Medium
Retail Margin Pressure
Thin margins in core e-commerce business remain a persistent challenge despite revenue growth.
Medium
AWS Growth Sustainability
While AWS growth accelerated to 28%, bears question if record $364B backlog can maintain momentum.
Lower
Fair Value Discount
Current share price trades at a 6.5% premium to bear case fair value estimate of $234.75.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMZN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AWS growth dominance
AWS revenue hit $128.7B with 20% growth, representing the core bull case as cloud demand accelerates.
Prime ecosystem expansion
Prime membership offers fast delivery, entertainment, and shopping benefits, driving recurring revenue and loyalty.
Logistics network advantage
Amazon's logistics infrastructure enables cost-efficient delivery and supports e-commerce scale.
Advertising business growth
Advertising revenue is expanding rapidly as Amazon leverages its e-commerce platform for targeted ads.
AI infrastructure leadership
Custom AI chips and cost-efficient infrastructure give Amazon a competitive edge in AI services.
Prime Day demand indicator
Prime Day serves as a key test of consumer demand and revenue growth potential.
Attractive valuation opportunity
19% pullback from all-time highs presents improved risk/reward profile for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMZN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$244.39
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$197.28
+23.9% from the low
52-Week High
$278.56
-12.3% from the high
1 Month
-7.73%
3 Month
+16.45%
YTD
+7.9%
1 Year
+15.0%
3Y CAGR
+24.8%
5Y CAGR
+7.0%
10Y CAGR
+21.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMZN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.8x
vs 25.9x median
+7% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.4%
vs +8.8% median
+30% above peer median
Net Margin
12.2%
vs 32.8% median
-63% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
GOO GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | $4.45T | 25.9x | +14.6% | 37.9% | Buy | +11.9% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.46T | 17.5x | +16.0% | 32.8% | Buy | +43.1% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.38T | 34.0x | +6.8% | 27.2% | Buy | +9.6% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsAMZN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 94 analysts covering the stock, 85 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $308, implying +25.9% from the current price of $244. The bear case scenario is $197 and the bull case is $411.
02What is the AMZN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMZN is $308 based on 94 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $330 (+35.0% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-28.4%). The base case model target is $312.
03Is Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMZN trades at 27.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMZN in 2026 are: (1) Capex Surge — Amazon's $200B+ AI capex commitment for 2026 compresses near-term free cash flow and raises long-term ROI concerns. (2) Valuation Sensitivity — High capital intensity makes valuation models highly sensitive to long-term growth assumptions, creating downside risk. (3) Retail Margin Pressure — Thin margins in core e-commerce business remain a persistent challenge despite revenue growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Amazon.com, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMZN will report consensus revenue of $827.6B (+11.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.63 (+3.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $913.4B in revenue.
06When does Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) report its next earnings?
Amazon.com, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.82 and revenue of $196.2B. Over recent quarters, AMZN has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Amazon.com, Inc. generate?
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) had a free cash outflow of $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.3%. AMZN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).