Upside case
Bull case
$186+93.0%
NEE would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
23 bullish · 1 bearish · 36 covering NEE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$98
+1.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$50 – $186
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $200.8B
NEE price targets
Three scenarios for where NEE stock could go
Current
~$96
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $96
Bear
$50
Base
$130
Bull
$186
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$130+34.8%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$50-47.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push NEE down roughly 48% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NextEra Energy, Inc.
NEE · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
NextEra Energy is a major electric utility and clean energy developer that operates regulated utilities in Florida while also building renewable projects across North America. It makes money primarily through regulated utility operations — about 60% of earnings — and its competitive energy generation business that develops wind, solar, and battery storage projects. The company's key advantage is its massive scale in renewable energy development and its first-mover position in clean energy infrastructure, giving it unmatched project execution capabilities and cost advantages.
Market Cap
$200.8B
Revenue TTM
$27.9B
Net Income TTM
$8.2B
Net Margin
29.3%
NEE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.01
Revenue
$6.7B/$7.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.13/$0.97
Revenue
$8.0B/$8.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.56
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.03
Revenue
$6.7B/$7.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$1.01 | +4.0% | $6.7B/$7.2B | -7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.13/$0.97 | +16.9% | $8.0B/$8.1B | -2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.53/$0.56 | -5.4% | $6.5B/$6.7B | -3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09/$1.03 | +5.8% | $6.7B/$7.3B | -7.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.5B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$32.9B
+8.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.13
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$4.44
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$3.8B
FCF Margin: -13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NEE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NEE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $27.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Florida Power & Light Company
67.6%
+7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Florida Power & Light Company is the largest disclosed segment at 67.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.3% YoY.
NEE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $78 — implies -19.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
19.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NEE
29.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+17% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
NEE
29.3x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
+46% premium
vs NEE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.3x
vs
5Y Average
30.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
23.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+25%
Utilities
17.5x
+36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
+17%
Utilities
20.1x
+46%
5Y Avg
30.8x
-5%
PEG Ratio
1.69x
S&P 500
1.72x
-2%
Utilities
1.69x
-0%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+26%
Utilities
11.4x
+68%
5Y Avg
21.1x
-9%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
7.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+134%
Utilities
2.2x
+240%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+4%
Dividend Yield
2.33%
S&P 500
1.87%
+25%
Utilities
3.06%
-24%
5Y Avg
2.48%
-6%
| Metric | NEE | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg NEE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.8x | 19.1x+25% | 17.5x+36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.3x | 25.1x+17% | 20.1x+46% | 30.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.69x | 1.72x | 1.69x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.1x | 15.2x+26% | 11.4x+68% | 21.1x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 15.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 7.3x | 3.1x+134% | 2.2x+240% | 7.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.33% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 2.48% |
NEE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNEE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NEE earns 29.5% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.3% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.92
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
29.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$92.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
2.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageNEE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Policy
NextEra’s growth depends on government incentives and clean‑energy policies. Changes to subsidies, rate‑case approvals, or new regulations could delay project development, reduce financing, and materially harm the company’s financial performance.
High Risk
Operational Execution
Project development risks include delays or cost overruns in siting, financing, construction, and maintenance. Supply‑chain disruptions for generation equipment and batteries, as well as labor strikes, can postpone project completion and erode revenue.
Medium
Market & Commodity Volatility
Fluctuations in fuel, electricity, and other energy‑related commodity prices expose the company to significant financial swings. A large debt load makes NextEra sensitive to rising interest rates, increasing debt‑servicing costs and squeezing project economics.
Medium
Environmental & Climate Risk
New greenhouse‑gas limits and rising sea levels could raise operating costs and require costly infrastructure upgrades. Climate‑change‑induced weather events may also damage facilities and disrupt operations nationwide.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Cyberattacks on NextEra’s information‑technology systems could disrupt operations, compromise sensitive data, and damage the company’s reputation, potentially leading to regulatory penalties.
Medium
Concentration & Reputational Risk
A significant portion of NextEra’s net income derives from Florida Power & Light, exposing the company to Florida’s economic cycles and regulatory environment. Allegations of political misconduct by FPL have already created legal and reputational challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NEE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership & Scale
NextEra Energy is the largest electric power and energy infrastructure company in North America, owning Florida Power & Light (FPL), the largest utility in Florida. FPL alone contributes roughly 70% of NextEra’s consolidated operating earnings, providing a stable earnings base and predictable cash flows.
Renewable Energy Expansion
The company is the largest U.S. renewable operator, with substantial solar and wind capacity and a significant backlog of renewable and storage projects. NextEra projects its renewables and storage business will triple in size, positioning it to capture the growing clean‑energy mandate.
Data Center Power Demand
NextEra is well‑positioned to serve the rising electricity needs of data centers driven by AI and cloud computing. It has a backlog of projects specifically for hyperscalers seeking to meet ESG commitments, creating a new revenue stream.
Strong Financial Growth
NextEra forecasts an 8‑10% earnings‑per‑share (EPS) compound annual growth rate and targets 6‑8% EPS growth through 2035. The company’s dividend yield is around 2.6‑2.8% and it aims for 10% dividend growth, supported by a sustainable payout ratio.
Capital Expenditure Commitment
The firm has a significant capex program, estimated at $64‑$72 billion through 2025, and a $90‑$100 billion program for FPL alone. This investment underpins capacity expansion and positions NextEra to meet future demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NEE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$96.28
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$63.88
+50.7% from the low
52-Week High
$98.75
-2.5% from the high
1 Month
+3.83%
3 Month
+7.93%
YTD
+19.0%
1 Year
+45.7%
3Y CAGR
+8.4%
5Y CAGR
+5.5%
10Y CAGR
+12.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NEE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.8x
vs 19.0x median
+25% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +4.8% median
+90% above peer median
Net Margin
29.3%
vs 14.5% median
+103% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NEE NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | $200.8B | 23.8x | +9.1% | 29.3% | Buy | +1.9% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $99.3B | 19.0x | +4.8% | 15.4% | Hold | +6.2% |
SO SO The Southern Company | $108.1B | 21.0x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +3.9% |
D D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $55.4B | 17.6x | +5.7% | 13.5% | Hold | +5.2% |
AEP AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $74.5B | 21.6x | +8.2% | 16.5% | Buy | -0.6% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.6B | 16.2x | +3.7% | 11.6% | Hold | +6.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NEE Dividend and Capital Return
NEE returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 2.33% dividend, raised 30 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.33%
Payout Ratio
68.5%
How NEE Splits Its Return
Div 2.33%
Dividend 2.33%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
30Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
10.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.27 | +10.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | $2.06 | +10.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $1.87 | +10.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2022 | $1.70 | +10.4% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsNEE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $98, implying +1.9% from the current price of $96. The bear case scenario is $50 and the bull case is $186.
02What is the NEE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NEE is $98 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $112 (+16.3% from today), and the low-end target is $87 (-9.6%). The base case model target is $130.
03Is NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) stock overvalued in 2026?
NEE trades at 23.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NEE in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Policy — NextEra’s growth depends on government incentives and clean‑energy policies. (2) Operational Execution — Project development risks include delays or cost overruns in siting, financing, construction, and maintenance. (3) Market & Commodity Volatility — Fluctuations in fuel, electricity, and other energy‑related commodity prices expose the company to significant financial swings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NextEra Energy, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NEE will report consensus revenue of $30.5B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.13 (+5.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $32.9B in revenue.
06When does NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NEE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does NextEra Energy, Inc. generate?
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) had a free cash outflow of $3.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. NEE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).