Upside case
Bull case
$130+67.4%
NFLX would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
99
analysts
64 bullish · 7 bearish · 99 covering NFLX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
64
Hold
28
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
+44.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$62 – $130
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
99
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $327.9B
NFLX price targets
Three scenarios for where NFLX stock could go
Current
~$77
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $77
Bear
$62
Base
$98
Bull
$130
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$98+27.1%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$62-20.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push NFLX down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Netflix, Inc.
NFLX · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Netflix is a global streaming entertainment service that offers original and licensed TV shows, movies, and documentaries. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees — with three pricing tiers — and earns additional income from licensing its original content to other platforms. Its key advantage is its massive scale and data-driven content creation, which allows it to invest billions in programming that attracts and retains subscribers worldwide.
Market Cap
$327.9B
Revenue TTM
$45.2B
Net Income TTM
$11.0B
Net Margin
24.3%
NFLX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.72/$0.71
Revenue
$11.1B/$11.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.70
Revenue
$11.5B/$11.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.55
Revenue
$12.1B/$12.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.23/$0.76
Revenue
$12.3B/$12.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.72/$0.71 | +1.4% | $11.1B/$11.1B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.59/$0.70 | -15.2% | $11.5B/$11.5B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.55 | +1.4% | $12.1B/$12.0B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23/$0.76 | +61.2% | $12.3B/$12.2B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$51.0B
+13.0% YoY
FY2
$56.7B
+11.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.18
+25.0% YoY
FY2
$3.21
+1.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.5B
FCF Margin: 20.9%
Next Earnings
July 16, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.79
Expected Revenue
$12.6B
NFLX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NFLX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $39.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Streaming
100.0%
+15.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States And Canada
44.5%
+16.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Streaming is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 15.9% YoY.
United States And Canada is the largest reported region at 44.5%, up 16.7% YoY.
NFLX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $57 — implies -25.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
25.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NFLX
30.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+25% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
NFLX
30.6x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
+100% premium
vs NFLX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.6x
vs
5Y Average
41.1x
26% discount
Forward PE
21.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+15%
Communication Services
11.3x
+92%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+25%
Communication Services
15.3x
+100%
5Y Avg
41.1x
-26%
PEG Ratio
0.93x
S&P 500
1.66x
-44%
Communication Services
0.64x
+44%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-27%
Communication Services
9.6x
+15%
5Y Avg
12.5x
-11%
Price/FCF
34.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+67%
Communication Services
11.4x
+204%
5Y Avg
53.3x
-35%
Price/Sales
7.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+135%
Communication Services
1.0x
+612%
5Y Avg
7.8x
-7%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Communication Services
3.43%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NFLX | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg NFLX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.7x | 18.8x+15% | 11.3x+92% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.6x | 24.4x+25% | 15.3x+100% | 41.1x-26% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.93x | 1.66x-44% | 0.64x+44% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1x | 15.2x-27% | 9.6x+15% | 12.5x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 34.7x | 20.7x+67% | 11.4x+204% | 53.3x-35% |
| Price/Sales | 7.3x | 3.1x+135% | 1.0x+612% | 7.8x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.43% | — |
NFLX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNFLX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NFLX generates $9.5B in free cash flow at a 20.9% margin — 29.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$45.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
19.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
41.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNFLX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Growth Deceleration
Netflix faces risks of growth deceleration, which may be masked by reporting changes.
High Risk
Content Cost War
Increasing competition in content spending could lead to margin erosion.
Medium
Governance Failure
Potential governance issues may arise, impacting shareholder value.
High Risk
Market Reaction
Negative market reaction to earnings reports has led to significant stock declines.
Medium
Strategic Misalignment
Netflix's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery may prioritize strategic goals over shareholder value.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Despite strong revenue growth, Netflix remains undervalued after a recent decline.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NFLX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Hidden content library value
Netflix's conservative amortization accounting hides significant value in its content library, supporting long-term engagement and revenue.
Advertising business growth
Netflix's advertising segment has matured into a scalable second monetization engine, driving future revenue potential.
Leading streaming position
Netflix remains the leading subscription service for TV and movies, with a vast library and broad device compatibility.
Upside potential
Analysts project significant upside for Netflix, with a potential average upside of around 40% based on bull and bear case scenarios.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NFLX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.38
52W Range Position
4%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$75.01
+3.2% from the low
52-Week High
$134.12
-42.3% from the high
1 Month
-13.72%
3 Month
-18.29%
YTD
-15.0%
1 Year
-36.7%
3Y CAGR
+21.2%
5Y CAGR
+9.1%
10Y CAGR
+23.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NFLX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.7x
vs 21.5x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.0%
vs +5.6% median
+131% above peer median
Net Margin
24.3%
vs 12.2% median
+99% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NFL NFLX Netflix, Inc. | $327.9B | 21.7x | +13.0% | 24.3% | Buy | +44.5% |
DIS DIS The Walt Disney Company | $180.4B | 15.2x | +5.3% | 11.5% | Buy | +34.0% |
WBD WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $65.7B | — | +5.6% | -5.8% | Hold | +17.6% |
CMC CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $81.7B | 6.4x | +3.1% | 14.8% | Buy | +40.3% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.38T | 34.0x | +6.8% | 27.2% | Buy | +9.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NFLX Dividend and Capital Return
NFLX returns 2.8% annually — null% through dividends and 2.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
118M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.2B
At 2.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsNFLX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 99 analysts covering the stock, 64 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying +44.5% from the current price of $77. The bear case scenario is $62 and the bull case is $130.
02What is the NFLX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NFLX is $112 based on 99 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $135 (+74.5% from today), and the low-end target is $96 (+24.1%). The base case model target is $98.
03Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock overvalued in 2026?
NFLX trades at 21.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NFLX in 2026 are: (1) Growth Deceleration — Netflix faces risks of growth deceleration, which may be masked by reporting changes. (2) Content Cost War — Increasing competition in content spending could lead to margin erosion. (3) Market Reaction — Negative market reaction to earnings reports has led to significant stock declines. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Netflix, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NFLX will report consensus revenue of $51.0B (+13.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.18 (+25.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $56.7B in revenue.
06When does Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) report its next earnings?
Netflix, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-16. Consensus expects EPS of $0.79 and revenue of $12.6B. Over recent quarters, NFLX has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Netflix, Inc. generate?
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) generated $9.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.9%. NFLX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($9.1B TTM).