Upside case
Bull case
$165+87.3%
NFLX would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
99
analysts
64 bullish · 7 bearish · 99 covering NFLX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
64
Hold
28
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$116
+32.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$24 – $165
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
99
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $372.4B
NFLX price targets
Three scenarios for where NFLX stock could go
Current
~$88
Confidence
78 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $88
Bear
$24
Base
$129
Bull
$165
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$129+46.5%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$24-72.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 18x multiple contraction could push NFLX down roughly 73% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Netflix, Inc.
NFLX · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Netflix is a global streaming entertainment service that offers original and licensed TV shows, movies, and documentaries. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees — with three pricing tiers — and earns additional income from licensing its original content to other platforms. Its key advantage is its massive scale and data-driven content creation, which allows it to invest billions in programming that attracts and retains subscribers worldwide.
Market Cap
$372.4B
Revenue TTM
$45.2B
Net Income TTM
$11.0B
Net Margin
24.3%
NFLX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.72/$0.71
Revenue
$11.1B/$11.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.70
Revenue
$11.5B/$11.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.55
Revenue
$12.1B/$12.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.23/$0.76
Revenue
$12.3B/$12.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.72/$0.71 | +1.4% | $11.1B/$11.1B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.59/$0.70 | -15.2% | $11.5B/$11.5B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.55 | +1.4% | $12.1B/$12.0B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23/$0.76 | +61.2% | $12.3B/$12.2B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$51.5B
+13.9% YoY
FY2
$58.1B
+13.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.38
+32.9% YoY
FY2
$3.71
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.5B
FCF Margin: 20.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NFLX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NFLX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $39.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Streaming
100.0%
+15.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States And Canada
44.5%
+16.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Streaming is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 15.9% YoY.
United States And Canada is the largest reported region at 44.5%, up 16.7% YoY.
NFLX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $82 — implies -10.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NFLX
34.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+38% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
NFLX
34.7x
vs
Communication Services
15.0x
+132% premium
vs NFLX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.7x
vs
5Y Average
41.1x
16% discount
Forward PE
24.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+29%
Communication Services
13.0x
+90%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+38%
Communication Services
15.0x
+132%
5Y Avg
41.1x
-16%
PEG Ratio
1.05x
S&P 500
1.72x
-39%
Communication Services
0.74x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-17%
Communication Services
8.4x
+49%
5Y Avg
12.5x
+1%
Price/FCF
39.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+87%
Communication Services
11.8x
+235%
5Y Avg
53.3x
-26%
Price/Sales
8.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+164%
Communication Services
1.0x
+744%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+6%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Communication Services
3.45%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NFLX | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg NFLX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.7x | 19.1x+29% | 13.0x+90% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.7x | 25.1x+38% | 15.0x+132% | 41.1x-16% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.05x | 1.72x-39% | 0.74x+42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6x | 15.2x-17% | 8.4x+49% | 12.5x |
| Price/FCF | 39.4x | 21.1x+87% | 11.8x+235% | 53.3x-26% |
| Price/Sales | 8.2x | 3.1x+164% | 1.0x+744% | 7.8x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 3.45% | — |
NFLX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNFLX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NFLX generates $9.5B in free cash flow at a 20.9% margin — 29.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$45.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
19.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
41.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNFLX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Content Costs
Netflix’s annual content spend has escalated to billions of dollars, driving down operating margins. The debt‑backed investment strategy amplifies financial risk if cost growth outpaces revenue.
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
The streaming arena includes Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, and regional services, intensifying the battle for exclusive content and talent. Market share erosion could compress subscriber growth and profitability.
Medium
Regulatory & Legal Risks
Antitrust probes into Netflix’s influence over filmmakers and evolving copyright laws pose operational uncertainties. Changes in international regulations could restrict content distribution or increase compliance costs.
Medium
Market Saturation
Growth in mature markets such as the U.S. and Canada is moderating, pushing Netflix toward pricing adjustments and share gains rather than new subscriber acquisition. Subscription fatigue may limit future expansion.
Medium
Economic Downturns
As a discretionary service, Netflix is vulnerable to consumer cutbacks during recessions, with inflation and high interest rates tightening household budgets. Reduced spending could dampen subscription revenue.
Lower
Ad‑Supported Tier Performance
Netflix’s ad‑tier diversification hinges on ad monetization success, which remains volatile and may not fully offset slower premium growth. Profitability of this segment is uncertain.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NFLX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth from Membership, Pricing, and Ads
Netflix continues to grow revenue through new member additions, price hikes across all U.S. subscription tiers, and a rapidly expanding advertising business. Goldman Sachs projects ad revenue alone to reach nearly $9.5 billion by 2030, while recent tier price increases are expected to add substantial revenue in the coming years.
Accelerating Operating Margin Expansion
The company is demonstrating operating leverage, with Goldman Sachs forecasting approximately 250 basis points of annual operating‑margin improvement over the next three years. This gain is driven by moderating content costs and disciplined spending.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Netflix is in a cash‑generation phase, having produced significant free cash flow in 2025. The trend of improving operating leverage and a clear long‑term strategy suggests this cash‑flow momentum will continue.
Rapid Growth of Ad‑Supported Tier
Ad‑supported tier revenues more than doubled in 2025 and are projected to roughly double again in 2026, underscoring the speed at which the advertising business is scaling.
Disciplined Internal Growth Post‑Acquisition
After abandoning the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, Netflix is focusing on internal growth and execution. This shift allows for a more disciplined approach to content spending and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NFLX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$87.89
52W Range Position
22%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$75.01
+17.2% from the low
52-Week High
$134.12
-34.5% from the high
1 Month
-11.16%
3 Month
+8.68%
YTD
-3.4%
1 Year
-22.5%
3Y CAGR
+39.6%
5Y CAGR
+12.1%
10Y CAGR
+25.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NFLX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.7x
vs 24.3x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.9%
vs +4.5% median
+210% above peer median
Net Margin
24.3%
vs 12.8% median
+90% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NFL NFLX Netflix, Inc. | $372.4B | 24.7x | +13.9% | 24.3% | Buy | +32.3% |
DIS DIS The Walt Disney Company | $180.0B | 15.3x | +4.5% | 12.8% | Buy | +38.8% |
WBD WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $73.8B | — | +10.7% | 1.3% | Hold | +9.9% |
CMC CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $96.4B | 7.5x | -1.0% | 14.8% | Buy | +20.4% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.17T | 33.4x | +4.0% | 27.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NFLX Dividend and Capital Return
NFLX returns 2.5% annually — null% through dividends and 2.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
104M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.2B
At 2.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsNFLX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 99 analysts covering the stock, 64 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $116, implying +32.3% from the current price of $88. The bear case scenario is $24 and the bull case is $165.
02What is the NFLX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NFLX is $116 based on 99 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $152 (+72.9% from today), and the low-end target is $96 (+9.2%). The base case model target is $129.
03Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock overvalued in 2026?
NFLX trades at 24.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NFLX in 2026 are: (1) Content Costs — Netflix’s annual content spend has escalated to billions of dollars, driving down operating margins. (2) Competitive Pressure — The streaming arena includes Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, and regional services, intensifying the battle for exclusive content and talent. (3) Regulatory & Legal Risks — Antitrust probes into Netflix’s influence over filmmakers and evolving copyright laws pose operational uncertainties. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Netflix, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NFLX will report consensus revenue of $51.5B (+13.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.38 (+32.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.1B in revenue.
06When does Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NFLX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Netflix, Inc. generate?
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) generated $9.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.9%. NFLX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($9.1B TTM).