NOC trades 21.9% below Wall Street's consensus target of $621.70.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes NOC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 17.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 35 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 23, 2026, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $621.70, based on estimates from 35 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $509.86, this represents a potential upside of +21.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $72.43B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $500.00 to a high of $745.00, representing a 39% spread in expectations. The median target of $617.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 20 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,14 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, NOC trades at a trailing P/E of 17.5x and forward P/E of 17.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.99 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -8.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $624.93, with bear and bull scenarios of $393.70 and $823.40 respectively. Model confidence stands at 53/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $120.6B | $522.34 | $644.86 | +23.5% | Buy | 17.2x | 37 |
 RTXRTX Corporation | $257.4B | $190.99 | $238.50 | +24.9% | Buy | 26.4x | 26 |
 GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $92.9B | $343.39 | $422.57 | +23.1% | Buy | 20.2x | 35 |
 BAThe Boeing Company | $156.3B | $197.72 | $274.29 | +38.7% | Buy | — | 55 |
 HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $10.7B | $270.95 | $333.00 | +22.9% | Hold | 14.5x | 27 |
 LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $44.7B | $239.89 | $340.00 | +41.7% | Buy | 20.1x | 33 |
 BAHBooz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | $9.2B | $76.28 | $89.00 | +16.7% | Buy | 12.6x | 22 |
 SAICScience Applications International Corporation | $5.5B | $129.69 | $118.75 | -8.4% | Hold | 12.9x | 18 |
 LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc. | $15.5B | $123.31 | $152.75 | +23.9% | Buy | 10.4x | 28 |
 DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc. | $9.9B | $37.15 | $52.50 | +41.3% | Buy | 26.9x | 9 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying NOC stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for NOC is $621.7, representing 21.9% upside from the current price of $509.86. With 35 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
NOC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 35 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 20 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $621.7 implies 21.9% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 17.6155x, NOC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $621.7 implies 21.9% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $745 for NOC, while the most conservative target is $500. The consensus of $621.7 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $823 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
NOC is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 35 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 20 have Buy ratings, 14 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month NOC stock forecast based on 35 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $621.7, with estimates ranging from $500 (bear case) to $745 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $625, with bear/bull scenarios of $394/$823.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates NOC's fair value at $625 (base case), with a bear case of $394 and bull case of $823. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 53/100.
NOC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 17.5x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on NOC, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $621.7 price target (21.9% upside). 20 of 35 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NOC analyst price targets range from $500 to $745, a 39% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $621.7 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $394-$823 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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