Upside case
Bull case
$25+86.7%
NOK would need investors to value it at roughly 74x earnings — about 34x more generous than today's 40x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nokia Oyj (NOK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
32 bullish · 5 bearish · 52 covering NOK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
15
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$12
-12.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $25
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
39.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $75.5B
NOK price targets
Three scenarios for where NOK stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $13
Base
$13
Bull
$25
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$13+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NOK — at roughly 40x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nokia Oyj
NOK · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentDecember year-end
Nokia is a telecommunications infrastructure company that builds and maintains mobile, fixed, and cloud networks for service providers and enterprises. It generates revenue primarily through its Mobile Networks (~40% of sales) and Network Infrastructure (~35%) segments, which sell hardware and software for 5G, fiber, and IP routing systems. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in wireless standards—particularly 5G—and its extensive patent portfolio that generates licensing revenue from nearly all smartphone manufacturers.
Market Cap
$75.5B
Revenue TTM
$20.0B
Net Income TTM
$796M
Net Margin
4.0%
NOK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.05/$0.07
Revenue
$5.4B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.07/$0.06
Revenue
$5.7B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.21/$0.17
Revenue
$7.3B/$7.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.06/$0.06
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.05/$0.07 | -28.6% | $5.4B/$4.7B | +13.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.07/$0.06 | +16.7% | $5.7B/$6.1B | -7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.21/$0.17 | +23.5% | $7.3B/$7.1B | +2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.06/$0.06 | +0.0% | $5.3B/$5.3B | -1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.2B
+0.8% YoY
FY2
$20.2B
+0.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.19
+34.6% YoY
FY2
$0.20
+5.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 7.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NOK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NOK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA Region
22.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
EMEA Region is the largest reported region at 22.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NOK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $8 — implies -40.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
40.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NOK
102.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+305% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NOK
102.2x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+272% premium
vs NOK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
102.2x
vs
5Y Average
26.8x
+281% premium
Forward PE
39.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+107%
Technology
21.7x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
102.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+305%
Technology
27.5x
+272%
5Y Avg
26.8x
+281%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
33.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+121%
Technology
17.4x
+94%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+222%
Price/FCF
45.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+114%
Technology
19.8x
+131%
5Y Avg
22.7x
+102%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3%
Technology
2.4x
+34%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+142%
Dividend Yield
1.17%
S&P 500
1.88%
-38%
Technology
1.18%
-1%
5Y Avg
1.91%
-39%
| Metric | NOK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 39.6x | 19.1x+107% | 21.7x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 102.2x | 25.2x+305% | 27.5x+272% | 26.8x+281% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.7x | 15.3x+121% | 17.4x+94% | 10.5x+222% |
| Price/FCF | 45.7x | 21.3x+114% | 19.8x+131% | 22.7x+102% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.4x+34% | 1.3x+142% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.17% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.91% |
NOK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNOK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
NOK returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$20.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$252M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$599M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
111.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
5.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNOK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Operating Margin Decline
Nokia has experienced a significant reduction in its operating margin, eroding profitability and limiting cash generation. The decline signals potential financial instability and may pressure future earnings growth.
High Risk
High R&D Spending
The company spends over €4 billion annually on research and development to stay competitive in fast‑moving telecom markets. This heavy outlay strains cash flow and can compress margins if new products fail to generate expected returns.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
Nokia, its partners, and third‑party contractors face ransomware, viruses, data breaches, DDoS attacks, and zero‑day exploits. Such incidents can disrupt operations, trigger costly remediation, and damage reputation.
High Risk
5G Market Competition
Intense rivalry from Samsung, Huawei, and other vendors threatens Nokia’s ability to win profitable 5G contracts. Failure to secure market share could erode revenue and margin growth.
Medium
Acquisition Cost Impact
The Infinera acquisition was expensive and has yet to deliver significant profit or competitive advantage, potentially diluting margins and diverting resources.
Medium
Funding Access Challenges
Nokia may face difficulties obtaining financing on favorable terms or at all, limiting its ability to invest in growth initiatives or refinance debt.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NOK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Market Position
Nokia is a leading provider of network infrastructure and cloud services, with growing demand for high‑speed connectivity. Its focus on expanding network capacity and active role in the 5G rollout positions it to capture new revenue streams.
Potential Undervaluation
Market analyses suggest Nokia trades below peers on forward price‑to‑earnings and price‑to‑sales multiples, indicating a margin of safety for investors.
Investment in 6G Technology
Nokia is allocating significant capital toward 6G research and development, aiming to secure a leadership role in the next generation of telecom standards and unlock future growth.
Restructuring & Cost‑Cutting
The company has launched restructuring initiatives and implemented cost‑reduction programs to streamline operations and improve profitability margins.
AI & Cloud Data Center Demand
Nokia stands to benefit from the expansion of AI and cloud data centers, as well as private wireless networks, which drive higher‑margin growth opportunities.
Strategic Leadership & Acquisitions
The acquisition of Infinera and recent leadership appointments are designed to enhance Nokia’s technical capabilities and accelerate growth, positioning it for long‑term success.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NOK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$13.19
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.00
+229.8% from the low
52-Week High
$13.98
-5.7% from the high
1 Month
+48.37%
3 Month
+86.56%
YTD
+102.6%
1 Year
+162.2%
3Y CAGR
+47.4%
5Y CAGR
+22.1%
10Y CAGR
+8.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NOK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
39.6x
vs 22.1x median
+79% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.8%
vs +4.2% median
-81% below peer median
Net Margin
4.0%
vs 4.5% median
-11% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NOK NOK Nokia Oyj | $75.5B | 39.6x | +0.8% | 4.0% | Buy | -12.7% |
ERI ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | $36.9B | 2.0x | -6.9% | 12.1% | Hold | -42.2% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $362.9B | 22.1x | +4.2% | 18.8% | Buy | +5.3% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $40.3B | 12.6x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -5.4% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $81.6B | 93.8x | +15.7% | 4.5% | Buy | -42.1% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $12.3B | 57.3x | +3.7% | -4.0% | Buy | -39.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NOK Dividend and Capital Return
NOK returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 1.15% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
1.15%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How NOK Splits Its Return
Div 1.15%
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 1.15%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
37.2%
5Y Div CAGR
37.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$599M
Estimated Shares Retired
45M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.7B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.16 | +11.7% | 1.7% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | $0.14 | +17.7% | 2.8% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $0.12 | +96.6% | 1.6% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $0.06 | — | 1.1% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsNOK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nokia Oyj (NOK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nokia Oyj (NOK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $12, implying -12.7% from the current price of $13.
02What is the NOK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NOK is $12 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $15 (+13.7% from today), and the low-end target is $7 (-50.2%). The base case model target is $13.
03Is Nokia Oyj (NOK) stock overvalued in 2026?
NOK trades at 39.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nokia Oyj (NOK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NOK in 2026 are: (1) Operating Margin Decline — Nokia has experienced a significant reduction in its operating margin, eroding profitability and limiting cash generation. (2) High R&D Spending — The company spends over €4 billion annually on research and development to stay competitive in fast‑moving telecom markets. (3) Cybersecurity Threats — Nokia, its partners, and third‑party contractors face ransomware, viruses, data breaches, DDoS attacks, and zero‑day exploits. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nokia Oyj's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NOK will report consensus revenue of $20.2B (+0.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.19 (+34.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.2B in revenue.
06When does Nokia Oyj (NOK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NOK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Nokia Oyj generate?
Nokia Oyj (NOK) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.3%. NOK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($599M TTM).