Upside case
Bull case
$14+1.1%
NOK would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 40x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Nokia Oyj (NOK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
32 bullish · 5 bearish · 52 covering NOK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
15
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$18
+29.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $14
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
39.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $77.2B
NOK price targets
Three scenarios for where NOK stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $13
Bear
$7
Base
$10
Bull
$14
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$10-23.3%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-51.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 21x multiple contraction could push NOK down roughly 52% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nokia Oyj
NOK · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentDecember year-end
Nokia is a telecommunications infrastructure company that builds and maintains mobile, fixed, and cloud networks for service providers and enterprises. It generates revenue primarily through its Mobile Networks (~40% of sales) and Network Infrastructure (~35%) segments, which sell hardware and software for 5G, fiber, and IP routing systems. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in wireless standards—particularly 5G—and its extensive patent portfolio that generates licensing revenue from nearly all smartphone manufacturers.
Market Cap
$77.2B
Revenue TTM
$20.0B
Net Income TTM
$796M
Net Margin
4.0%
NOK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.05/$0.07
Revenue
$5.4B/$4.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.07/$0.06
Revenue
$5.7B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.21/$0.17
Revenue
$7.3B/$7.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.06/$0.06
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.05/$0.07 | -28.6% | $5.4B/$4.7B | +13.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.07/$0.06 | +16.7% | $5.7B/$6.1B | -7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.21/$0.17 | +23.5% | $7.3B/$7.1B | +2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.06/$0.06 | +0.0% | $5.3B/$5.3B | -1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.6B
+2.8% YoY
FY2
$21.8B
+6.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.20
+42.3% YoY
FY2
$0.23
+16.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 7.3%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.07
Expected Revenue
$5.6B
NOK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NOK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA Region
22.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
EMEA Region is the largest reported region at 22.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
NOK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $6 — implies -56.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
56.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NOK
106.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+336% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NOK
106.5x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+267% premium
vs NOK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
106.5x
vs
5Y Average
26.8x
+297% premium
Forward PE
39.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+111%
Technology
22.3x
+79%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
106.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+336%
Technology
29.0x
+267%
5Y Avg
26.8x
+297%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
35.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+131%
Technology
16.6x
+111%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+236%
Price/FCF
47.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+130%
Technology
19.2x
+148%
5Y Avg
22.7x
+110%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+9%
Technology
2.4x
+38%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+153%
Dividend Yield
1.12%
S&P 500
1.91%
-41%
Technology
1.11%
+1%
5Y Avg
1.91%
-41%
| Metric | NOK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 39.7x | 18.8x+111% | 22.3x+79% | — |
| Trailing PE | 106.5x | 24.4x+336% | 29.0x+267% | 26.8x+297% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.2x | 15.2x+131% | 16.6x+111% | 10.5x+236% |
| Price/FCF | 47.7x | 20.7x+130% | 19.2x+148% | 22.7x+110% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.4x+38% | 1.3x+153% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.12% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.91% |
NOK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNOK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
NOK returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$20.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$252M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$599M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
111.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
5.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNOK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Trailing P/E of 89.9x prices in significant growth — any miss could trigger a sharp selloff.
Medium
Earnings volatility
Analyst forecasts indicate potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios.
Medium
Peer competition
Nokia faces competitive risks in the Communication Equipment industry when compared to peers like ASX, CIEN, and CLS.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Stock price dynamics reflect short-term uncertainty, with bear-case scenarios indicating downside potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NOK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI and 6G leadership
Nokia is transitioning from a traditional 5G vendor to a key player in AI-native networks, edge AI, 6G, and telecom compute, leveraging AI/data center demand to offset weaker 5G spending.
Analyst bullish consensus
Nokia has a buy consensus from 52 analysts, with a predicted stock price target of $15.28 by 2026, indicating significant upside potential.
Market expansion opportunities
Nokia is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging technologies like edge AI and data center networking, which could drive future growth beyond traditional telecom equipment.
AI-driven demand offset
Nokia is using AI and data center demand to mitigate losses from weaker 5G spending and contract losses, showcasing adaptability in a shifting market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NOK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$13.49
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.00
+237.3% from the low
52-Week High
$17.45
-22.7% from the high
1 Month
-1.82%
3 Month
+61.36%
YTD
+107.2%
1 Year
+160.9%
3Y CAGR
+47.5%
5Y CAGR
+21.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NOK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
39.7x
vs 28.0x median
+42% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.8%
vs +6.4% median
-55% below peer median
Net Margin
4.0%
vs 7.9% median
-49% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NOK NOK Nokia Oyj | $77.2B | 39.7x | +2.8% | 4.0% | Buy | +29.7% |
ERI ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | $35.0B | 2.0x | +0.7% | 12.1% | Hold | -39.0% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $471.2B | 28.0x | +6.4% | 19.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $62.8B | 13.9x | +8.3% | 3.9% | Hold | +46.1% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $60.6B | 65.6x | +10.5% | 7.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
VIA VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $10.9B | 50.3x | +6.1% | -4.0% | Buy | -31.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NOK Dividend and Capital Return
NOK returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.12% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
1.12%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How NOK Splits Its Return
Div 1.12%
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 1.12%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
37.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-31.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$599M
Estimated Shares Retired
44M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.7B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.16 | +11.7% | 1.7% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | $0.14 | +17.7% | 2.8% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $0.12 | +96.6% | 1.6% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $0.06 | — | 1.1% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsNOK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nokia Oyj (NOK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nokia Oyj (NOK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $18, implying +29.7% from the current price of $13. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $14.
02What is the NOK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NOK is $18 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $20 (+48.3% from today), and the low-end target is $15 (+11.2%). The base case model target is $10.
03Is Nokia Oyj (NOK) stock overvalued in 2026?
NOK trades at 39.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nokia Oyj (NOK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NOK in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Trailing P/E of 89. (2) Earnings volatility — Analyst forecasts indicate potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios. (3) Peer competition — Nokia faces competitive risks in the Communication Equipment industry when compared to peers like ASX, CIEN, and CLS. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nokia Oyj's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NOK will report consensus revenue of $20.6B (+2.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.20 (+42.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.8B in revenue.
06When does Nokia Oyj (NOK) report its next earnings?
Nokia Oyj is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.07 and revenue of $5.6B. Over recent quarters, NOK has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nokia Oyj generate?
Nokia Oyj (NOK) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.3%. NOK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($599M TTM).