Upside case
Bull case
$1316+155.1%
NVMI would need investors to value it at roughly 127x earnings — about 77x more generous than today's 50x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 12 covering NVMI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$490
-5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$209 – $1316
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
49.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
NVMI price targets
Three scenarios for where NVMI stock could go
Current
~$516
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $516
Bear
$209
Base
$1141
Bull
$1316
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1141+121.2%
At 110x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$209-59.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 30x multiple contraction could push NVMI down roughly 59% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nova Ltd.
NVMI · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Nova Ltd. is a semiconductor process control systems company that designs and sells metrology equipment used to measure and monitor chip manufacturing processes. It generates revenue primarily from selling its dimensional, films, and materials metrology platforms—which account for the vast majority of sales—to logic, foundry, and memory chip manufacturers worldwide. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in complex measurement technologies and strong customer relationships with leading semiconductor manufacturers who rely on its precision tools for advanced process control.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$881M
Net Income TTM
$259M
Net Margin
29.4%
NVMI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.18/$2.08
Revenue
$213M/$211M
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.20/$2.05
Revenue
$220M/$217M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.16/$2.15
Revenue
$225M/$222M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.14/$2.13
Revenue
$223M/$221M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.18/$2.08 | +4.8% | $213M/$211M | +1.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.20/$2.05 | +7.3% | $220M/$217M | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.16/$2.15 | +0.5% | $225M/$222M | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.14/$2.13 | +0.5% | $223M/$221M | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+23.7% YoY
FY2
$1.4B
+24.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.18
+32.9% YoY
FY2
$12.72
+25.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$218M
FCF Margin: 24.7%
Next Earnings
May 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.20
Expected Revenue
$227M
NVMI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NVMI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $538M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
100.0%
+32.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 32.9% YoY.
NVMI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $327 — implies -33.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVMI
89.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+257% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NVMI
89.7x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+236% premium
vs NVMI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
89.7x
vs
5Y Average
34.9x
+157% premium
Forward PE
49.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+162%
Technology
22.1x
+126%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
89.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+257%
Technology
26.7x
+236%
5Y Avg
34.9x
+157%
PEG Ratio
2.48x
S&P 500
1.72x
+45%
Technology
1.52x
+63%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
74.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+387%
Technology
17.5x
+324%
5Y Avg
29.4x
+152%
Price/FCF
69.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+229%
Technology
19.5x
+255%
5Y Avg
33.8x
+105%
Price/Sales
22.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+619%
Technology
2.4x
+819%
5Y Avg
8.1x
+177%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NVMI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NVMI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 49.9x | 19.1x+162% | 22.1x+126% | — |
| Trailing PE | 89.7x | 25.1x+257% | 26.7x+236% | 34.9x+157% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.48x | 1.72x+45% | 1.52x+63% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 74.1x | 15.2x+387% | 17.5x+324% | 29.4x+152% |
| Price/FCF | 69.3x | 21.1x+229% | 19.5x+255% | 33.8x+105% |
| Price/Sales | 22.5x | 3.1x+619% | 2.4x+819% | 8.1x+177% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
NVMI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVMI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NVMI generates $218M in free cash flow at a 24.7% margin — 14.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$881M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+31.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
28.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$218M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$158M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$78M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$30M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
32M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVMI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical and Operational Risks
Nova Ltd. is based in Rehovot, Israel, exposing it to geopolitical risks, including regional conflicts and instability. The escalating conflict with Iran has already impacted energy prices and could have further operational consequences.
High Risk
Market and Economic Risks
The semiconductor industry is subject to cyclical downturns and fluctuations in demand, which can significantly impact Nova's growth targets. Weaker demand in logic sectors and potential cuts in capital expenditures by memory chipmakers are key factors to monitor.
High Risk
Financial and Regulatory Risks
The stock is trading at a premium valuation, with a forward P/E ratio significantly above its peers, which could limit near-term upside. Analysts believe the current valuation may not be sustainable in the short term.
Medium
Supply Chain Issues
Nova acknowledges risks related to its supply chain, which can be affected by various factors, including geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions. Dependency on a single manufacturing facility per product line poses additional risks.
Medium
China Market Uncertainty
China contributes about 30% of revenues in 2026, but is expected to be flat in dollar terms, with increasing local competition. Management has expressed a cautious stance regarding revenue from China, anticipating a potential reduction in sales contribution.
Medium
Technological Obsolescence
Failure to keep pace with rapid technological changes in the semiconductor industry could pose a risk to Nova's competitiveness. The company must continuously innovate to avoid obsolescence.
Lower
Insider Selling
In the past three months, insiders have sold more of their company's stock than they have bought, which can be perceived as a negative signal regarding the company's future prospects.
Lower
Customer Concentration
Nova's dependency on a small number of large customers could pose a risk, as losing any of these customers may significantly impact revenue.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVMI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI-Driven Demand
The increasing complexity of semiconductors, especially for AI applications, necessitates advanced process control and metrology tools. NVMI's Metrion platform is being adopted for gate-all-around and advanced DRAM production, positioning the company as a key 'picks and shovels' provider in the AI gold rush.
Strong Financial Performance and Growth
NVMI has demonstrated robust financial health, with record service sales showing a 19% year-over-year growth and a remarkable 41% revenue growth in China. The company anticipates significant non-GAAP earnings growth, projecting a 34% year-over-year increase for 2025.
Technological Leadership
As a leading innovator in metrology solutions for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, NVMI provides high-precision hardware and cutting-edge software that offer deep insights into the development and production of advanced semiconductor devices. This focus on advanced nodes, DRAM, and packaging is expected to drive future growth.
Market Position and Demand Drivers
The wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market is expected to grow, driven by strong demand from capacity additions as customers transition to high-volume manufacturing. NVMI's solutions are crucial for advanced manufacturing processes like Gate-All-Around (GAA) and advanced packaging, fueled by expanding AI and HPC demand.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among analysts is a 'Strong Buy' for NVMI stock, with a significant majority recommending a Strong Buy or Buy, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects.
Strong Liquidity and Financial Ratios
NVMI exhibits strong liquidity with a current ratio of 6.28 and a quick ratio of 5.47, both of which are in the top 10% of its industry and have improved over the last three years, indicating solid financial health.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVMI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$515.87
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$176.52
+192.2% from the low
52-Week High
$548.91
-6.0% from the high
1 Month
+15.78%
3 Month
+20.89%
YTD
+48.5%
1 Year
+163.1%
3Y CAGR
+77.1%
5Y CAGR
+41.9%
10Y CAGR
+46.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVMI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
49.9x
vs 43.1x median
+16% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.7%
vs +9.6% median
+147% above peer median
Net Margin
29.4%
vs 7.5% median
+292% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVM NVMI Nova Ltd. | $15.1B | 49.9x | +23.7% | 29.4% | Buy | -5.1% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $15.2B | 43.1x | +20.6% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.1% |
MKS MKSI MKS Inc. | $19.4B | 29.0x | +9.6% | 7.5% | Buy | -5.1% |
CAM CAMT Camtek Ltd. | $7.2B | 56.7x | +25.4% | 28.4% | Buy | -16.0% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $2.3B | 91.0x | +0.8% | -11.5% | Buy | +2.7% |
KLI KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | $4.8B | 34.8x | -3.9% | -9.4% | Buy | -31.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVMI Dividend and Capital Return
NVMI returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$30M
Estimated Shares Retired
58.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
32M
FAQ
7 questionsNVMI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nova Ltd. (NVMI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $490, implying -5.1% from the current price of $516. The bear case scenario is $209 and the bull case is $1316.
02What is the NVMI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVMI is $490 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $520 (+0.8% from today), and the low-end target is $453 (-12.2%). The base case model target is $1141.
03Is Nova Ltd. (NVMI) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVMI trades at 49.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nova Ltd. (NVMI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVMI in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical and Operational Risks — Nova Ltd. (2) Market and Economic Risks — The semiconductor industry is subject to cyclical downturns and fluctuations in demand, which can significantly impact Nova's growth targets. (3) Financial and Regulatory Risks — The stock is trading at a premium valuation, with a forward P/E ratio significantly above its peers, which could limit near-term upside. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nova Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVMI will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+23.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.18 (+32.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.4B in revenue.
06When does Nova Ltd. (NVMI) report its next earnings?
Nova Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-14. Consensus expects EPS of $2.20 and revenue of $227M. Over recent quarters, NVMI has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nova Ltd. generate?
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) generated $218M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.7%. NVMI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($30M TTM).