Upside case
Bull case
$442+923.5%
NVO would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
39
analysts
23 bullish · 3 bearish · 39 covering NVO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
22
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$45
+4.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$211 – $442
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $191.9B
NVO price targets
Three scenarios for where NVO stock could go
Current
~$43
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $43
Bear
$211
Base
$335
Bull
$442
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$335+676.8%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$211+389.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NVO down roughly 389% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Novo Nordisk is a global pharmaceutical company specializing in diabetes and obesity treatments. It generates revenue primarily from diabetes care products—mainly insulin and GLP-1 drugs—which account for over 80% of sales, with its obesity segment growing rapidly. The company's moat comes from its deep expertise in peptide-based therapies, extensive clinical data, and strong brand recognition in diabetes care.
Market Cap
$191.9B
Revenue TTM
$327.8B
Net Income TTM
$122.0B
Net Margin
37.2%
NVO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$1.02/$0.77
Revenue
$11.8B/$12.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.00/$0.90
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.00/$0.90
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.04/$0.87
Revenue
$11.0B/$10.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.02/$0.77 | +32.5% | $11.8B/$12.4B | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.00/$0.90 | +11.1% | $12.5B/$12.1B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.00/$0.90 | +11.1% | $12.5B/$12.1B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.04/$0.87 | +19.5% | $11.0B/$10.9B | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$349.2B
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$359.3B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$27.02
-1.4% YoY
FY2
$27.34
+1.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$31.0B
FCF Margin: 9.5%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.83
Expected Revenue
$11.2B
NVO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NVO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $215.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
63.4%
+50.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America is the largest reported region at 63.4%, up 50.0% YoY.
NVO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $452 — implies +946.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
946.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVO
12.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
50% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
NVO
12.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
45% discount
vs NVO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.2x
vs
5Y Average
4.5x
+171% premium
Forward PE
2.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-89%
Healthcare
18.3x
-89%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-50%
Healthcare
22.1x
-45%
5Y Avg
4.5x
+171%
PEG Ratio
0.59x
S&P 500
1.66x
-64%
Healthcare
1.59x
-63%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-41%
Healthcare
14.2x
-36%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+153%
Price/FCF
43.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+108%
Healthcare
18.5x
+132%
5Y Avg
6.0x
+612%
Price/Sales
4.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+30%
Healthcare
2.6x
+53%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+164%
Dividend Yield
4.15%
S&P 500
1.91%
+117%
Healthcare
1.50%
+177%
5Y Avg
8.72%
-52%
| Metric | NVO | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg NVO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.0x | 18.8x-89% | 18.3x-89% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.2x | 24.4x-50% | 22.1x-45% | 4.5x+171% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.59x | 1.66x-64% | 1.59x-63% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0x | 15.2x-41% | 14.2x-36% | 3.6x+153% |
| Price/FCF | 43.0x | 20.7x+108% | 18.5x+132% | 6.0x+612% |
| Price/Sales | 4.0x | 3.1x+30% | 2.6x+53% | 1.5x+164% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.15% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 8.72% |
NVO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NVO generates $31.0B in free cash flow at a 9.5% margin — 36.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$327.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
81.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
45.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$27.41
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$31.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
36.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$26.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$104.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.4× FCF
~3.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
66.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$11.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Novo Nordisk faces relentless market advances from Eli Lilly, threatening its dominance in the GLP-1 obesity market.
High Risk
Clinical Setbacks
The December 2024 CagriSema REDEFINE 1 disappointment has negatively impacted investor confidence.
High Risk
Stock Performance
NVO stock has underperformed the industry, sector, and S&P 500, with a significant drawdown of 56.46% from its peak.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
The stock is trading at a discount to the industry, reflecting bearish sentiment about future growth prospects.
Medium
Market Transition
Novo Nordisk has shifted from a stable growth name to a high-volatility, high-beta play, increasing risk for investors.
Lower
Long-term Returns
Despite recent downturns, long-term investors since 2016 have seen an 87% total return, though significantly reduced from previous highs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong diabetes and obesity growth
Novo Nordisk is experiencing robust growth in its diabetes and obesity care segments, supported by strong Q1 results.
High capital returns
The company is delivering high capital returns to shareholders, enhancing investor appeal.
Patient-capital structure moat
The Novo Nordisk Foundation's patient-capital structure provides a competitive moat, enabling long-term pipeline focus despite market volatility.
Long-term pipeline resilience
Novo Nordisk's ability to sustain a 7-year pipeline thesis even during significant market drawdowns underscores its strategic stability.
Global healthcare leadership
As a leading global healthcare company, Novo Nordisk is well-positioned to drive change in treating diabetes and chronic diseases.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$43.19
52W Range Position
20%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.12
+23.0% from the low
52-Week High
$74.82
-42.3% from the high
1 Month
-2.46%
3 Month
+15.33%
YTD
-17.6%
1 Year
-41.6%
3Y CAGR
-18.9%
5Y CAGR
+1.0%
10Y CAGR
+5.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.0x
vs 17.0x median
-88% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
vs +5.5% median
+18% above peer median
Net Margin
37.2%
vs 17.2% median
+116% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVO NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | $191.9B | 2.0x | +6.5% | 37.2% | Buy | +4.2% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1.04T | 30.0x | +15.1% | 35.0% | Buy | +15.8% |
SNY SNY Sanofi | $102.4B | 10.1x | +5.5% | 16.7% | Buy | +20.3% |
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $271.2B | 17.0x | +7.1% | 17.2% | Buy | +6.7% |
NVS NVS Novartis AG | $280.6B | 16.9x | +3.6% | 24.1% | Hold | +15.6% |
ROG ROG Rogers Corporation | $2.9B | 44.7x | +0.6% | -6.9% | Buy | -7.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVO Dividend and Capital Return
NVO returns 4.3% total yield, led by a 4.15% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
4.15%
Payout Ratio
50.5%
How NVO Splits Its Return
Div 4.15%
Dividend 4.15%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$11.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
29.2%
5Y Div CAGR
21.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
32M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.4B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.22 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.73 | +19.4% | 0.6% | 23.5% |
| 2024 | $1.45 | +40.6% | 5.3% | 16.8% |
| 2023 | $1.03 | +28.5% | 6.4% | 13.3% |
| 2022 | $0.80 | +8.7% | 7.8% | 16.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNVO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $45, implying +4.2% from the current price of $43. The bear case scenario is $211 and the bull case is $442.
02What is the NVO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVO is $45 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $45 (+4.2% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (+4.2%). The base case model target is $335.
03Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVO trades at 2.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVO in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Pressure — Novo Nordisk faces relentless market advances from Eli Lilly, threatening its dominance in the GLP-1 obesity market. (2) Clinical Setbacks — The December 2024 CagriSema REDEFINE 1 disappointment has negatively impacted investor confidence. (3) Stock Performance — NVO stock has underperformed the industry, sector, and S&P 500, with a significant drawdown of 56. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Novo Nordisk A/S's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVO will report consensus revenue of $349.2B (+6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $27.02 (-1.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $359.3B in revenue.
06When does Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) report its next earnings?
Novo Nordisk A/S is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.83 and revenue of $11.2B. Over recent quarters, NVO has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Novo Nordisk A/S generate?
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) generated $31.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.5%. NVO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).