Upside case
Bull case
$501+1017.1%
NVO would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
39
analysts
23 bullish · 3 bearish · 39 covering NVO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
22
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
+4.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$245 – $501
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $151.4B
NVO price targets
Three scenarios for where NVO stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$245
Base
$331
Bull
$501
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$331+637.9%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$245+445.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NVO down roughly 445% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Novo Nordisk is a global pharmaceutical company specializing in diabetes and obesity treatments. It generates revenue primarily from diabetes care products—mainly insulin and GLP-1 drugs—which account for over 80% of sales, with its obesity segment growing rapidly. The company's moat comes from its deep expertise in peptide-based therapies, extensive clinical data, and strong brand recognition in diabetes care.
Market Cap
$151.4B
Revenue TTM
$297.2B
Net Income TTM
$98.5B
Net Margin
33.1%
NVO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.93
Revenue
$12.1B/$12.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.02/$0.77
Revenue
$11.8B/$12.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.00/$0.90
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.00/$0.90
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.97/$0.93 | +4.3% | $12.1B/$12.3B | -1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.02/$0.77 | +32.5% | $11.8B/$12.4B | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.00/$0.90 | +11.1% | $12.5B/$12.1B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.00/$0.90 | +11.1% | $12.5B/$12.1B | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$321.1B
+8.1% YoY
FY2
$353.2B
+10.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$24.06
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$26.58
+10.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$56.2B
FCF Margin: 18.9%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.87
Expected Revenue
$11.2B
NVO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NVO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $215.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
63.4%
+50.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America is the largest reported region at 63.4%, up 50.0% YoY.
NVO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $342 — implies +678.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
678.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVO
12.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
51% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
NVO
12.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
44% discount
vs NVO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.4x
vs
5Y Average
4.5x
+176% premium
Forward PE
2.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-89%
Healthcare
18.8x
-89%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-51%
Healthcare
22.2x
-44%
5Y Avg
4.5x
+176%
PEG Ratio
0.60x
S&P 500
1.72x
-65%
Healthcare
1.53x
-61%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-51%
Healthcare
14.0x
-47%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+104%
Price/FCF
17.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-19%
Healthcare
18.6x
-8%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+222%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+4%
Healthcare
2.8x
+16%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+112%
Dividend Yield
3.92%
S&P 500
1.87%
+110%
Healthcare
1.42%
+175%
5Y Avg
8.72%
-55%
| Metric | NVO | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg NVO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.1x | 19.1x-89% | 18.8x-89% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.4x | 25.1x-51% | 22.2x-44% | 4.5x+176% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.60x | 1.72x-65% | 1.53x-61% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4x | 15.2x-51% | 14.0x-47% | 3.6x+104% |
| Price/FCF | 17.0x | 21.1x-19% | 18.6x | 5.3x+222% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.8x+16% | 1.5x+112% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.92% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 8.72% |
NVO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NVO generates $56.2B in free cash flow at a 18.9% margin — 34.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$297.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
81.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
41.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
33.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$22.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$56.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$26.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$104.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
50.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
3.9%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$11.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Intense Competition
Novo Nordisk faces growing competition in the US and international GLP‑1 markets, with rivals developing biosimilar versions of its products and new GLP‑1 drugs that have overtaken Ozempic in the US type‑2 diabetes market. The company’s market share is eroding as competitors such as Eli Lilly expand their GLP‑1 portfolios.
High Risk
Patent Expirations
The compound patent for Victoza has expired in several key markets, and biosimilar versions are already approved in China. Loss of exclusivity could lead to significant revenue erosion as competitors launch cheaper alternatives.
Medium
Regulatory & Legal Risks
Novo Nordisk relies on government approvals for production, development, marketing, and reimbursement of its products. Potential investigations, criminal or civil sanctions, and other penalties could damage the company’s reputation and result in unexpected loss of product exclusivity.
Medium
Production Capacity & Supply Chain
Demand fluctuations, resource shortages, geopolitical instability, trade disputes, and local manufacturing requirements strain global supply chains. Expanding production capacity is complex and involves long lead times, making shortages a risk to patient availability and commercial opportunities.
Medium
Innovation & Pipeline Risks
The company’s portfolio is heavily concentrated on the semaglutide compound, creating a concentration risk. Delays or failures in late‑stage medicines or misjudging commercial potential could prevent products from reaching patients, adversely affecting sales and market position.
Lower
Market Dynamics & Pricing
Competitive pressures, macroeconomic shifts, and healthcare crises can reduce payer willingness to pay, impacting price levels and patient access. Commoditization of oral GLP‑1 drugs could erode Novo Nordisk’s pricing power over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
GLP‑1 Market Leadership & Growth
Novo Nordisk dominates the rapidly expanding GLP‑1 market for obesity and diabetes, with flagship product Wegovy driving demand. The company projects revenue growth of 10‑30% over time as it scales production to meet this demand.
Undervalued Valuation vs Peers
The stock trades at a lower P/E ratio than its historical averages and its main competitor, Eli Lilly. Forward P/E is also below the 3‑year average, suggesting potential upside from valuation corrections.
Robust Profitability & Return Metrics
Novo Nordisk enjoys high gross and operating margins, placing it in the top tier of the industry. Strong ROE and ROIC, coupled with a consistent dividend policy and share‑buyback program, provide a floor for the stock price.
Vertical Manufacturing Integration
Significant investments in manufacturing—including acquisition of production sites and expansion of facilities—enable better cost control and optimization. This vertical integration is crucial in a market facing potential price declines.
Oral GLP‑1 Pipeline Expansion
The company continues to invest in R&D, expanding indications for existing drugs and developing oral GLP‑1 medications. These pipeline candidates are seen as a significant growth driver for the future.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.89
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.12
+27.8% from the low
52-Week High
$81.44
-44.9% from the high
1 Month
+22.42%
3 Month
+3.58%
YTD
-14.3%
1 Year
-35.1%
3Y CAGR
-18.1%
5Y CAGR
+3.9%
10Y CAGR
+5.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.1x
vs 17.6x median
-88% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.1%
vs +5.0% median
+62% above peer median
Net Margin
33.1%
vs 17.2% median
+93% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVO NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | $151.4B | 2.1x | +8.1% | 33.1% | Buy | +4.7% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $933.7B | 28.6x | +14.3% | 35.0% | Buy | +27.4% |
SNY SNY Sanofi | $104.7B | 10.3x | +4.6% | 16.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $281.0B | 17.6x | +9.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +16.4% |
NVS NVS Novartis AG | $277.6B | 16.6x | +5.0% | 24.1% | Hold | -3.1% |
ROG ROG Rogers Corporation | $2.5B | 38.0x | -1.6% | -6.9% | Buy | +8.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVO Dividend and Capital Return
NVO returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.92% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
3.92%
Payout Ratio
50.5%
How NVO Splits Its Return
Div 3.92%
Dividend 3.92%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$11.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
20.6%
5Y Div CAGR
16.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
30M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.4B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.40 | +36.8% | 0.6% | 22.6% |
| 2024 | $1.03 | -0.3% | 5.3% | 16.8% |
| 2023 | $1.03 | +28.5% | 6.4% | 13.3% |
| 2022 | $0.80 | +8.7% | 7.8% | 16.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNVO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying +4.7% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $245 and the bull case is $501.
02What is the NVO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVO is $47 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $54 (+20.3% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (-6.4%). The base case model target is $331.
03Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVO trades at 2.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVO in 2026 are: (1) Intense Competition — Novo Nordisk faces growing competition in the US and international GLP‑1 markets, with rivals developing biosimilar versions of its products and new GLP‑1 drugs that have overtaken Ozempic in the US type‑2 diabetes market. (2) Patent Expirations — The compound patent for Victoza has expired in several key markets, and biosimilar versions are already approved in China. (3) Regulatory & Legal Risks — Novo Nordisk relies on government approvals for production, development, marketing, and reimbursement of its products. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Novo Nordisk A/S's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVO will report consensus revenue of $321.1B (+8.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $24.06 (+8.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $353.2B in revenue.
06When does Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) report its next earnings?
Novo Nordisk A/S is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.87 and revenue of $11.2B. Over recent quarters, NVO has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Novo Nordisk A/S generate?
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) generated $56.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.9%. NVO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).