NVS trades 7.2% below Wall Street's consensus target of $153.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes NVS achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 16.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 25 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Novartis AG (NVS) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $153.00, based on estimates from 25 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $142.71, this represents a potential upside of +7.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $271.25B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $136.00 to a high of $170.00, representing a 22% spread in expectations. The median target of $153.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 6 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,17 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, NVS trades at a trailing P/E of 19.8x and forward P/E of 16.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.06 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +31.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $165.71, with bear and bull scenarios of $104.40 and $218.34 respectively. Model confidence stands at 50/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PFEPfizer Inc. | $160.6B | $28.17 | $28.50 | +1.2% | Hold | 9.5x | 39 |
 AZNAstraZeneca PLC | $126.6B | $163.33 | $186.67 | +14.3% | Buy | 15.9x | 41 |
 NVONovo Nordisk A/S | $169.5B | $38.17 | $44.67 | +17.0% | Buy | 1.7x | 39 |
 SNYSanofi | $100.0B | $41.66 | $49.50 | +18.8% | Hold | 10.0x | 27 |
 GSKGSK plc | $99.6B | $49.71 | $60.00 | +20.7% | Hold | 13.8x | 29 |
 MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $365.8B | $148.11 | $158.12 | +6.8% | Buy | 53.9x | 38 |
 LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.1T | $1152.70 | $1343.07 | +16.5% | Buy | 31.7x | 45 |
 ABTAbbott Laboratories | $180.3B | $103.53 | $121.50 | +17.4% | Buy | 18.8x | 41 |
 BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $124.9B | $61.15 | $70.00 | +14.5% | Buy | 8.8x | 42 |
 ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $468.7B | $265.30 | $287.08 | +8.2% | Buy | 18.9x | 43 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying NVS stock.
The consensus price target for NVS is $153, close to the current price of $142.71 (7.2% implied move). Based on 25 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
NVS has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 25 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 17 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $153 implies 7.2% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 16.2252x, NVS trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $153 implies 7.2% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $170 for NVS, while the most conservative target is $136. The consensus of $153 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $218 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
NVS is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 25 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 6 have Buy ratings, 17 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month NVS stock forecast based on 25 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $153, with estimates ranging from $136 (bear case) to $170 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $166, with bear/bull scenarios of $104/$218.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates NVS's fair value at $166 (base case), with a bear case of $104 and bull case of $218. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 50/100.
NVS trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 19.8x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
NVS appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $153 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NVS analyst price targets range from $136 to $170, a 22% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $153 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $104-$218 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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