Upside case
Bull case
$206+141.2%
OKE would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
39
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 39 covering OKE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
21
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$90
+5.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $206
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $53.9B
OKE price targets
Three scenarios for where OKE stock could go
Current
~$86
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $86
Bear
$34
Base
$124
Bull
$206
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$124+44.5%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34-60.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push OKE down roughly 61% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ONEOK, Inc.
OKE · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
ONEOK is a major U.S. midstream energy company that gathers, processes, stores, and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). It generates revenue primarily through fee-based contracts across its three segments — Natural Gas Gathering and Processing (~40% of EBITDA), Natural Gas Liquids (~45%), and Natural Gas Pipelines (~15%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive, strategically located pipeline network across key shale basins — particularly the Permian and Bakken — which creates high barriers to entry through critical infrastructure.
Market Cap
$53.9B
Revenue TTM
$35.2B
Net Income TTM
$3.5B
Net Margin
10.0%
OKE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.33
Revenue
$7.9B/$7.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.49/$1.44
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.55/$1.50
Revenue
$9.1B/$8.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.30
Revenue
$9.6B/$8.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.33 | +0.8% | $7.9B/$7.7B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.49/$1.44 | +3.5% | $8.6B/$8.8B | -1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.55/$1.50 | +3.3% | $9.1B/$8.7B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23/$1.30 | -5.4% | $9.6B/$8.2B | +16.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$42.6B
+21.1% YoY
FY2
$52.3B
+22.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.58
+17.7% YoY
FY2
$7.83
+19.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 6.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
OKE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
OKE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $36.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Natural Gas Liquids
43.6%
+5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Natural Gas Liquids is the largest disclosed segment at 43.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.6% YoY.
OKE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $119 — implies +31.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
31.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OKE
15.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
37% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
OKE
15.8x
vs
Energy
16.9x
6% discount
vs OKE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.8x
vs
5Y Average
16.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
15.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-20%
Energy
13.2x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-37%
Energy
16.9x
-6%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-2%
PEG Ratio
0.51x
S&P 500
1.75x
-71%
Energy
0.52x
-2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-33%
Energy
8.1x
+25%
5Y Avg
11.7x
-13%
Price/FCF
22.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+3%
Energy
14.1x
+56%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+33%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-49%
Energy
1.6x
+3%
5Y Avg
1.8x
-9%
Dividend Yield
4.78%
S&P 500
1.88%
+155%
Energy
2.97%
+61%
5Y Avg
5.38%
-11%
| Metric | OKE | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg OKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.2x | 19.1x-20% | 13.2x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.8x | 25.2x-37% | 16.9x | 16.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.51x | 1.75x-71% | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2x | 15.3x-33% | 8.1x+25% | 11.7x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 22.0x | 21.3x | 14.1x+56% | 16.6x+33% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-49% | 1.6x | 1.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 4.78% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 5.38% |
OKE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOKE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
OKE returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$35.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+41.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.59
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$78M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$32.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
14.6× FCF
~14.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
4.8%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$75M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.09
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
76.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
630M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageOKE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Financing
ONEOK’s aggressive M&A strategy—acquiring Medallion Midstream, EnLink Midstream, and Magellan Midstream—has substantially increased leverage. The resulting debt load raises the risk of shareholder dilution and limits financial flexibility, potentially impacting dividend sustainability.
High Risk
NGL Volume Declines
The company’s key Bakken and Permian basins face the risk of significant drops in Natural Gas Liquids volumes. A sustained decline would directly erode revenue streams and compress margins.
Medium
Accounting & Financial Ops
Inaccurate financial reporting or weakened internal controls could lead to misstated earnings or fraud. Such events may trigger dividend reductions or cessation, eroding investor confidence.
Medium
Production Cost Volatility
Commodity price swings and the terms of future contracts expose ONEOK to rising production costs. Higher costs can squeeze operating margins, especially if revenue does not keep pace.
Medium
Integration & Growth Challenges
Integrating large acquisitions while managing high debt presents operational hurdles. Delays or inefficiencies could delay expected synergies and strain cash flow.
Lower
Cyber Security
Reliance on digital assets and operational technology makes ONEOK vulnerable to cyber attacks. A successful breach could disrupt operations, expose sensitive data, and damage reputation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OKE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Pipeline Infrastructure & Acquisition Synergies
ONEOK’s extensive pipeline network and capital‑intensive infrastructure create significant barriers to entry. The recent acquisition of Magellan Midstream strengthened its refined products and crude oil portfolio, a segment that commands higher margins.
Fee‑Based Model Protects Cash Flow
The company’s operations are largely fee‑based, insulating it from commodity price swings. This model provides stable cash flows and shields ONEOK from direct volatility in energy prices.
Strong Dividend Growth & 6% Yield
ONEOK has a history of dividend growth and currently offers a dividend yield near 6%. The company recently increased its quarterly dividend, underscoring its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Growing U.S. Gas & NGL Demand
ONEOK is positioned to benefit from rising U.S. gas and NGL demand. Integrated midstream assets and new long‑duration projects support fee‑based volume growth and are expected to boost EBITDA.
Analyst Consensus & Upside Potential
Analysts hold a constructive view with a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Several firms have raised price targets to as high as $113, citing strong volume growth, improved cash flows, and financial flexibility.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OKE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$85.60
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$64.02
+33.7% from the low
52-Week High
$95.30
-10.2% from the high
1 Month
-3.28%
3 Month
+4.59%
YTD
+15.1%
1 Year
+8.0%
3Y CAGR
+10.5%
5Y CAGR
+9.9%
10Y CAGR
+8.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OKE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.2x
vs 24.6x median
-38% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.1%
vs +6.7% median
+215% above peer median
Net Margin
10.0%
vs 23.8% median
-58% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OKE OKE ONEOK, Inc. | $53.9B | 15.2x | +21.1% | 10.0% | Hold | +5.0% |
WMB WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $90.2B | 31.6x | +8.9% | 23.8% | Buy | +7.1% |
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $70.3B | 22.3x | +4.7% | 18.9% | Hold | +10.8% |
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $53.6B | 24.6x | +6.7% | 9.4% | Buy | -4.7% |
DTM DTM DT Midstream, Inc. | $14.7B | 30.5x | +14.7% | 36.6% | Hold | -0.0% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $56.5B | 12.6x | +6.2% | 37.5% | Buy | +8.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OKE Dividend and Capital Return
OKE returns 4.9% total yield, led by a 4.78% dividend, raised 22 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
4.78%
Payout Ratio
76.1%
How OKE Splits Its Return
Div 4.78%
Dividend 4.78%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.09
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.3%
5Y Div CAGR
2.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$75M
Estimated Shares Retired
876.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
630M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.12 | +4.0% | 0.2% | 5.7% |
| 2024 | $3.96 | +3.7% | 0.3% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $3.82 | +2.1% | 0.0% | 5.4% |
| 2022 | $3.74 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsOKE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $90, implying +5.0% from the current price of $86. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $206.
02What is the OKE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OKE is $90 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $104 (+21.5% from today), and the low-end target is $72 (-15.9%). The base case model target is $124.
03Is ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) stock overvalued in 2026?
OKE trades at 15.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OKE in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Financing — ONEOK’s aggressive M&A strategy—acquiring Medallion Midstream, EnLink Midstream, and Magellan Midstream—has substantially increased leverage. (2) NGL Volume Declines — The company’s key Bakken and Permian basins face the risk of significant drops in Natural Gas Liquids volumes. (3) Accounting & Financial Ops — Inaccurate financial reporting or weakened internal controls could lead to misstated earnings or fraud. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ONEOK, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OKE will report consensus revenue of $42.6B (+21.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.58 (+17.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $52.3B in revenue.
06When does ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for OKE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ONEOK, Inc. generate?
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.4%. OKE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.8% yield) and share repurchases ($75M TTM).