Upside case
Bull case
$97+170.1%
ONON would need investors to value it at roughly 75x earnings — about 47x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering ONON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
+56.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $97
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
ONON price targets
Three scenarios for where ONON stock could go
Current
~$36
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $36
Base
$77
Bull
$97
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$77+114.5%
At 60x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
On Holding AG
ONON · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailDecember year-end
On Holding is a premium athletic footwear and apparel company known for its innovative running shoes with patented cushioning technology. It generates revenue primarily through direct-to-consumer sales — about 60% of total — and wholesale distribution to specialty running retailers. The company's moat lies in its proprietary CloudTec cushioning system and strong brand identity within the performance running community.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$203M
Net Margin
6.8%
ONON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.23/$0.23
Revenue
$853M/$769M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.11/$0.24
Revenue
$943M/$886M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.33
Revenue
$999M/$957M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.26
Revenue
$938M/$916M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.23/$0.23 | +0.2% | $853M/$769M | +11.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.11/$0.24 | -145.6% | $943M/$886M | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.33 | +53.7% | $999M/$957M | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31/$0.26 | +19.2% | $938M/$916M | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.8B
+25.6% YoY
FY2
$4.9B
+28.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.14
+88.1% YoY
FY2
$1.60
+39.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$277M
FCF Margin: 9.2%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.35
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
ONON beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ONON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Shoes
93.0%
+27.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
37.8%
+17.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Shoes is the largest disclosed segment at 93.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 27.5% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 37.8%, up 17.6% YoY.
ONON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $28 — implies -18.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ONON
48.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+92% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ONON
48.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+148% premium
vs ONON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
48.5x
vs
5Y Average
90.1x
46% discount
Forward PE
27.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+46%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+83%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
48.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+92%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+148%
5Y Avg
90.1x
-46%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+8%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+44%
5Y Avg
42.3x
-61%
Price/FCF
32.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+54%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+120%
5Y Avg
50.0x
-34%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-8%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+307%
5Y Avg
7.8x
-63%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ONON | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ONON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.8x | 19.1x+46% | 15.2x+83% | — |
| Trailing PE | 48.5x | 25.2x+92% | 19.6x+148% | 90.1x-46% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.4x | 15.3x | 11.4x+44% | 42.3x-61% |
| Price/FCF | 32.9x | 21.3x+54% | 15.0x+120% | 50.0x-34% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 0.7x+307% | 7.8x-63% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
ONON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolONON Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ONON generates $277M in free cash flow at a 9.2% margin — 26.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+29.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
62.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$277M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
26.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$439M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
334M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageONON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Global economic slowdowns, inflation, and currency fluctuations can significantly impact consumer spending on discretionary items like athletic footwear and apparel. This could adversely affect On's sales and profit margins.
High Risk
High Valuation
On's stock often trades at a premium valuation compared to industry peers, implying that significant future growth is already priced in. A slowdown in growth could lead to a sharp stock price correction.
High Risk
Competition
The athletic wear industry is highly competitive, with established players and new entrants attempting to imitate On's products and technology. Increased competition could lead to market share loss, forcing On to reduce gross margins or slow revenue growth.
Medium
Execution of Growth Strategy
On has ambitious growth plans, including international expansion and a growing apparel business. Any missteps in executing these strategies could hinder the company's growth trajectory.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Disruptions in the supply chain, along with increased costs for supplies, goods, and transportation, can negatively impact On's profitability.
Medium
Brand Reputation
Maintaining brand image and reputation is vital for On. Negative publicity or failure to adhere to responsible business practices by suppliers could harm the brand and its market position.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
A security breach or cybersecurity incident could lead to data loss, operational disruptions, and damage to customer relationships, potentially harming the company's reputation.
Lower
Dependence on Footwear
On's concentration of business in the footwear category poses a risk if demand in that category shifts, potentially impacting overall revenue.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ONON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Financial Performance
On Holding has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with increases of 33.26% year-over-year and a notable three-year average annual growth rate of 54.06%. Earnings per share (EPS) have also seen significant improvement, with a 68.42% increase in the last year.
Premium Brand Positioning and Innovation
The company has successfully established a brand-based competitive edge through innovative and stylish footwear, positioning itself firmly in the premium segment against larger rivals like Nike and Adidas. Its proprietary innovations, such as CloudTec® cushioning and Speedboard® technology, contribute to its appeal.
Growth Potential and Expansion
Analysts anticipate continued progress, with predicted yearly EPS growth of 25.04% and revenue growth of 22.68% in the coming years. The Asia-Pacific region is identified as a core growth engine for the company's global expansion.
Institutional Accumulation
Institutional investors have been accumulating ONON stock, with activity ramping up in early 2026, indicating a solid support base and a potential tailwind for future price appreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ONON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$36.06
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.41
+14.8% from the low
52-Week High
$61.29
-41.2% from the high
1 Month
+7.10%
3 Month
-17.05%
YTD
-23.2%
1 Year
-25.2%
3Y CAGR
+1.6%
5Y CAGR
+0.6%
10Y CAGR
+0.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ONON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.8x
vs 19.0x median
+46% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+25.6%
vs +3.6% median
+613% above peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs 14.2% median
-52% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ONO ONON On Holding AG | $10.7B | 27.8x | +25.6% | 6.8% | Buy | +56.7% |
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $52.3B | 29.5x | -1.8% | 5.4% | Buy | +59.3% |
LUL LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $14.7B | 10.1x | +3.6% | 14.2% | Hold | +58.4% |
DEC DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $14.8B | 15.1x | +7.4% | 19.3% | Buy | +16.8% |
BIR BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | $7.3B | 19.0x | +14.7% | 17.7% | Buy | +40.3% |
UAA UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $1.3B | 55.7x | -3.4% | -10.4% | Hold | +14.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsONON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is On Holding AG (ONON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
On Holding AG (ONON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying +56.7% from the current price of $36.
02What is the ONON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ONON is $57 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+135.7% from today), and the low-end target is $31 (-14.0%). The base case model target is $77.
03Is On Holding AG (ONON) stock overvalued in 2026?
ONON trades at 27.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for On Holding AG (ONON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ONON in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Headwinds — Global economic slowdowns, inflation, and currency fluctuations can significantly impact consumer spending on discretionary items like athletic footwear and apparel. (2) High Valuation — On's stock often trades at a premium valuation compared to industry peers, implying that significant future growth is already priced in. (3) Competition — The athletic wear industry is highly competitive, with established players and new entrants attempting to imitate On's products and technology. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is On Holding AG's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ONON will report consensus revenue of $3.8B (+25.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.14 (+88.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.9B in revenue.
06When does On Holding AG (ONON) report its next earnings?
On Holding AG is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, ONON has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does On Holding AG generate?
On Holding AG (ONON) generated $277M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.2%. ONON returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).