Upside case
Bull case
$76+96.1%
ONON would need investors to value it at roughly 54x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering ONON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$54
+39.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $76
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.0B
ONON price targets
Three scenarios for where ONON stock could go
Current
~$39
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $39
Bear
$36
Base
$58
Bull
$76
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$58+48.8%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-6.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push ONON down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
On Holding AG
ONON · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailDecember year-end
On Holding is a premium athletic footwear and apparel company known for its innovative running shoes with patented cushioning technology. It generates revenue primarily through direct-to-consumer sales — about 60% of total — and wholesale distribution to specialty running retailers. The company's moat lies in its proprietary CloudTec cushioning system and strong brand identity within the performance running community.
Market Cap
$13.0B
Revenue TTM
$3.1B
Net Income TTM
$252M
Net Margin
8.1%
ONON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.11/$0.24
Revenue
$943M/$886M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.33
Revenue
$999M/$957M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.26
Revenue
$938M/$916M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.47/$0.34
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.11/$0.24 | -145.6% | $943M/$886M | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.33 | +53.7% | $999M/$957M | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31/$0.26 | +19.2% | $938M/$916M | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.47/$0.34 | +39.6% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.5B
+13.1% YoY
FY2
$4.1B
+15.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.07
+43.1% YoY
FY2
$1.29
+19.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$307M
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.42
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
ONON beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ONON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Shoes
93.0%
+27.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
37.8%
+17.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Shoes is the largest disclosed segment at 93.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 27.5% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 37.8%, up 17.6% YoY.
ONON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $20 — implies -48.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
48.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ONON
53.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+119% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ONON
53.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+154% premium
vs ONON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
53.6x
vs
5Y Average
90.1x
40% discount
Forward PE
27.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+47%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+70%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
53.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+119%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+154%
5Y Avg
90.1x
-40%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+36%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+69%
5Y Avg
42.3x
-51%
Price/FCF
41.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+98%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+163%
5Y Avg
50.0x
-18%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+17%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+416%
5Y Avg
7.8x
-54%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ONON | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ONON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.7x | 18.8x+47% | 16.3x+70% | — |
| Trailing PE | 53.6x | 24.4x+119% | 21.2x+154% | 90.1x-40% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6x | 15.2x+36% | 12.2x+69% | 42.3x-51% |
| Price/FCF | 41.0x | 20.7x+98% | 15.6x+163% | 50.0x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+17% | 0.7x+416% | 7.8x-54% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
ONON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolONON Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ONON generates $307M in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin — 26.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
63.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$307M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
26.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$439M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
333M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageONON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue growth sustainability
Despite strong past revenue growth (10.8x in six years), the company's ability to maintain at least 23% constant-currency sales growth in 2026 is uncertain given market conditions and reinvestment pressures.
High Risk
Earnings-driven breakout risk
The company's potential for an earnings-driven breakout is uncertain due to evolving earnings estimates and a valuation that straddles premium pricing and sector norms.
Medium
Reinvestment pressure
Higher reinvestment requirements could strain profitability despite record gross margins, potentially impacting future net income growth.
Medium
Valuation concerns
The stock's premium valuation relative to sector norms may limit upside potential if growth metrics fail to meet elevated expectations.
Lower
Market expectations
Analyst estimates show significant growth expectations (24.2% revenue growth FY+1), creating potential for disappointment if execution falters.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ONON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong analyst consensus
Wall Street consensus price target of $54.36 represents a potential upside of +42.8% from current trading price.
Market capitalization growth
The company has a market capitalization of $12.69B, indicating significant investor interest and valuation.
Innovative product line
Known for its innovative running shoes and distinct design aesthetic, On Holding AG has a strong brand appeal.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses highlight the potential for growth, with some analysts forecasting significant upside.
Positive future prospects
Deep dives into performance and future prospects suggest continued growth and market expansion.
High P/E ratios
Trailing and forward P/E ratios of 76.41 and 55.25 respectively indicate strong earnings growth expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ONON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$38.88
52W Range Position
30%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.41
+23.8% from the low
52-Week High
$55.95
-30.5% from the high
1 Month
+2.05%
3 Month
-0.44%
YTD
-17.2%
1 Year
-25.0%
3Y CAGR
+9.6%
5Y CAGR
+2.1%
10Y CAGR
+1.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ONON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.7x
vs 22.9x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.1%
vs +4.6% median
+185% above peer median
Net Margin
8.1%
vs 13.0% median
-38% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ONO ONON On Holding AG | $13.0B | 27.7x | +13.1% | 8.1% | Buy | +39.8% |
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $53.8B | 30.3x | +0.1% | 5.4% | Buy | +41.9% |
LUL LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $12.7B | 8.6x | +4.6% | 13.0% | Hold | +34.3% |
DEC DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $15.2B | 15.8x | +5.2% | 18.7% | Hold | +8.8% |
BIR BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | $8.5B | 22.9x | +9.7% | 16.3% | Buy | +7.2% |
UAA UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $2.6B | 51.7x | +2.5% | -9.9% | Hold | +7.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsONON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is On Holding AG (ONON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
On Holding AG (ONON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $54, implying +39.8% from the current price of $39. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $76.
02What is the ONON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ONON is $54 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+118.6% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (+8.0%). The base case model target is $58.
03Is On Holding AG (ONON) stock overvalued in 2026?
ONON trades at 27.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for On Holding AG (ONON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ONON in 2026 are: (1) Revenue growth sustainability — Despite strong past revenue growth (10. (2) Earnings-driven breakout risk — The company's potential for an earnings-driven breakout is uncertain due to evolving earnings estimates and a valuation that straddles premium pricing and sector norms. (3) Reinvestment pressure — Higher reinvestment requirements could strain profitability despite record gross margins, potentially impacting future net income growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is On Holding AG's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ONON will report consensus revenue of $3.5B (+13.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.07 (+43.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.1B in revenue.
06When does On Holding AG (ONON) report its next earnings?
On Holding AG is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, ONON has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does On Holding AG generate?
On Holding AG (ONON) generated $307M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. ONON returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).