Upside case
Bull case
$165+47.5%
LULU would need investors to value it at roughly 13x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
71
analysts
29 bullish · 4 bearish · 71 covering LULU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
29
Hold
38
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$150
+34.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$79 – $165
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
71
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.7B
LULU price targets
Three scenarios for where LULU stock could go
Current
~$112
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $112
Bear
$79
Base
$125
Bull
$165
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$125+11.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing LULU — at roughly 10x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$79-29.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push LULU down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lululemon Athletica Inc.
LULU · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailFebruary year-end
Lululemon is a premium athletic apparel retailer specializing in yoga-inspired clothing and accessories for women and men. It generates revenue primarily through direct-to-consumer sales — about 44% from e-commerce and 56% from company-operated stores — with a focus on high-margin technical apparel. The company's moat lies in its strong brand loyalty, innovative fabric technology, and community-driven retail experience that creates premium pricing power.
Market Cap
$12.7B
Revenue TTM
$11.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
13.0%
LULU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.10/$2.91
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.59/$2.22
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.01/$4.76
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.69/$1.67
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.10/$2.91 | +6.5% | $2.5B/$2.5B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.59/$2.22 | +16.7% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.01/$4.76 | +5.3% | $3.6B/$3.6B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.69/$1.67 | +1.2% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.7B
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$11.9B
+1.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.91
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$13.97
+0.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 11.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LULU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LULU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Women's Product
63.0%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.5%
-2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Women's Product is the largest disclosed segment at 63.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.5%, down 2.4% YoY.
LULU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $380 — implies +239.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
239.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LULU
8.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
66% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LULU
8.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
60% discount
vs LULU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.4x
vs
5Y Average
33.9x
75% discount
Forward PE
8.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-54%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-48%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-66%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-60%
5Y Avg
33.9x
-75%
PEG Ratio
0.35x
S&P 500
1.66x
-79%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-69%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-62%
5Y Avg
19.9x
-76%
Price/FCF
13.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-12%
5Y Avg
50.9x
-73%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+64%
5Y Avg
4.9x
-77%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | LULU | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LULU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.6x | 18.8x-54% | 16.3x-48% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.4x | 24.4x-66% | 21.2x-60% | 33.9x-75% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.35x | 1.66x-79% | 0.92x-62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7x | 15.2x-69% | 12.2x-62% | 19.9x-76% |
| Price/FCF | 13.8x | 20.7x-33% | 15.6x-12% | 50.9x-73% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-63% | 0.7x+64% | 4.9x-77% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
LULU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLULU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LULU generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 11.4% margin — 37.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 9.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
37.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$9M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
9.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
114M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLULU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Slowing growth
Lululemon is facing slowing growth in the U.S. and North America after a period of rapid expansion.
High Risk
Guidance downgrade
The company downgraded its full-year guidance, signaling deep-seated operational challenges.
Medium
Competitive pressure
The athletic apparel market is highly competitive, with many players offering similar products.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Despite appearing undervalued based on DCF, the stock's reaction to earnings was muted, indicating market skepticism.
Lower
Operational risks
The company disclosed 38 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting various operational challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LULU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong brand moat
Lululemon has a strong competitive moat, supported by its premium brand positioning and loyal customer base.
Premium pricing power
The company maintains premium pricing power, allowing it to sustain high margins despite market fluctuations.
Expanding men's segment
Lululemon is strategically growing its men's apparel segment, diversifying its revenue streams beyond women's activewear.
International growth
The company is focusing on international expansion, tapping into new markets to drive long-term growth.
Robust margins
Lululemon's financials highlight robust margins, reflecting efficient operations and strong cost management.
Diverse product offerings
The brand offers a wide range of athletic apparel and accessories, catering to various sports and lifestyles.
Free shipping incentives
Lululemon provides free shipping and returns, enhancing customer satisfaction and encouraging repeat purchases.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LULU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$111.77
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$109.36
+2.2% from the low
52-Week High
$252.24
-55.7% from the high
1 Month
-7.06%
3 Month
-32.42%
YTD
-47.0%
1 Year
-51.1%
3Y CAGR
-33.7%
5Y CAGR
-20.3%
10Y CAGR
+4.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LULU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.6x
vs 25.3x median
-66% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.6%
vs +3.3% median
+39% above peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs 0.2% median
+5164% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LUL LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $12.7B | 8.6x | +4.6% | 13.0% | Hold | +34.3% |
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $53.8B | 30.3x | +0.1% | 5.4% | Buy | +41.9% |
UAA UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $2.6B | 51.7x | +2.5% | -9.9% | Hold | +7.3% |
CRO CROX Crocs, Inc. | $6.3B | 9.2x | +8.9% | -2.6% | Buy | -4.8% |
PVH PVH PVH Corp. | $3.6B | 7.1x | +3.3% | 0.2% | Buy | +19.4% |
RL RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $25.2B | 25.3x | +6.8% | 11.6% | Buy | +5.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LULU Dividend and Capital Return
LULU returns 9.3% annually — null% through dividends and 9.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
9.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
9.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
9.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
114M
At 9.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsLULU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 71 analysts covering the stock, 29 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 38 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $150, implying +34.3% from the current price of $112. The bear case scenario is $79 and the bull case is $165.
02What is the LULU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LULU is $150 based on 71 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $250 (+123.7% from today), and the low-end target is $88 (-21.3%). The base case model target is $125.
03Is Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) stock overvalued in 2026?
LULU trades at 8.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LULU in 2026 are: (1) Slowing growth — Lululemon is facing slowing growth in the U. (2) Guidance downgrade — The company downgraded its full-year guidance, signaling deep-seated operational challenges. (3) Competitive pressure — The athletic apparel market is highly competitive, with many players offering similar products. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LULU will report consensus revenue of $11.7B (+4.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.91 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.9B in revenue.
06When does Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LULU is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lululemon Athletica Inc. generate?
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.4%. LULU returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).