Upside case
Bull case
$281+112.9%
LULU would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
70
analysts
31 bullish · 4 bearish · 70 covering LULU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
35
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$209
+58.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$124 – $281
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
70
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.7B
LULU price targets
Three scenarios for where LULU stock could go
Current
~$132
Confidence
80 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $132
Bear
$124
Base
$152
Bull
$281
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$152+14.8%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$124-6.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push LULU down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lululemon Athletica Inc.
LULU · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailFebruary year-end
Lululemon is a premium athletic apparel retailer specializing in yoga-inspired clothing and accessories for women and men. It generates revenue primarily through direct-to-consumer sales — about 44% from e-commerce and 56% from company-operated stores — with a focus on high-margin technical apparel. The company's moat lies in its strong brand loyalty, innovative fabric technology, and community-driven retail experience that creates premium pricing power.
Market Cap
$14.7B
Revenue TTM
$11.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
14.2%
LULU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.60/$2.58
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.10/$2.91
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.59/$2.22
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.01/$4.79
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.60/$2.58 | +0.8% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.10/$2.91 | +6.5% | $2.5B/$2.5B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.59/$2.22 | +16.7% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.01/$4.79 | +4.6% | $3.6B/$3.6B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.5B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$12.5B
+8.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.01
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$15.22
+8.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$922M
FCF Margin: 8.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LULU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LULU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Women's Product
63.0%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.5%
-2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Women's Product is the largest disclosed segment at 63.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.5%, down 2.4% YoY.
LULU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $440 — implies +229.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
229.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LULU
10.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
61% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LULU
10.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
49% discount
vs LULU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.0x
vs
5Y Average
33.9x
71% discount
Forward PE
10.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-47%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-61%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-49%
5Y Avg
33.9x
-71%
PEG Ratio
0.41x
S&P 500
1.75x
-76%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-57%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-64%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-52%
5Y Avg
19.9x
-73%
Price/FCF
16.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-25%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+6%
5Y Avg
50.9x
-69%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-58%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+86%
5Y Avg
4.9x
-73%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | LULU | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LULU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.1x | 19.1x-47% | 15.2x-33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.0x | 25.2x-61% | 19.6x-49% | 33.9x-71% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.41x | 1.75x-76% | 0.95x-57% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4x | 15.3x-64% | 11.4x-52% | 19.9x-73% |
| Price/FCF | 16.0x | 21.3x-25% | 15.0x | 50.9x-69% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-58% | 0.7x+86% | 4.9x-73% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
LULU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLULU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LULU generates $922M in free cash flow at a 8.3% margin — 37.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
56.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.26
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$922M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
37.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$9M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
8.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
119M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLULU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Headwinds
High inflation and a challenging macroeconomic environment have negatively impacted consumer sentiment, particularly affecting Lululemon's premium athleisure segment. Concerns about stagflation threaten the company's pricing power, making it vulnerable to shifts in consumer spending.
High Risk
Execution and Competition
Lululemon faces significant internal execution challenges, including long product life cycles that lead to stale offerings. Additionally, intensified competition from brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori is pressuring pricing and profit margins, contributing to a slowdown in sales growth.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Disruptions in the supply chain, particularly due to reliance on international suppliers, pose a substantial risk to Lululemon's operating and financial results. The company has faced challenges in sourcing alternative supplies of similar quality, which could adversely affect inventory management.
Medium
Regulatory Scrutiny
Lululemon is under investigation by the Texas Attorney General for the potential presence of 'forever chemicals' (PFAS) in its products. This scrutiny raises concerns about product safety and brand integrity, which could impact consumer trust and sales.
Medium
Tariffs and Trade Policy
Tariffs on imported products have created a significant headwind for Lululemon, impacting gross margins. The company's historical reliance on duty-free imports means that changes in trade policy could lead to increased costs and reduced profitability.
Lower
Leadership Changes
The recent departure of CEO Calvin McDonald may signal a potential inflection point for Lululemon as it seeks to revitalize its strategy. Leadership transitions can create uncertainty and affect investor confidence in the company's direction.
Lower
Foreign Currency Risks
Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates can impact Lululemon's financial results, given that a significant portion of its revenue and expenses are generated internationally. This exposure adds an additional layer of risk to the company's financial performance.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risk
Lululemon manages strategic risks, including cybersecurity, through its Enterprise Risk Management program. However, the increasing prevalence of cyber threats poses a potential risk to the company's operations and data integrity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LULU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Brand Equity and Market Position
Lululemon maintains a strong brand image and a loyal customer base, particularly in the premium activewear segment. Despite increased competition, it continues to gain market share in certain areas.
International Growth Potential
The company has demonstrated robust double-digit revenue growth internationally, with significant opportunities for further expansion in global markets. This international performance provides a buffer against slower growth in North America.
Valuation and Undervaluation
Some analysts and investors believe LULU is currently undervalued, trading at a discount to its historical median multiples and the broader market. This perceived undervaluation, coupled with a significant drop in share price, is seen by some as a potential buying opportunity.
Product Innovation and Differentiation
Lululemon is focused on introducing differentiated products and elevating guest experiences. The company's core strength in performance and technical wear continues to gain traction.
Strategic Initiatives
Lululemon is implementing strategies to address current challenges, including a focus on improving full-price sales in North America and incorporating learnings from across its global regions.
Financial Health
The company has a solid financial foundation, with a strong return on equity and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Lululemon also has a history of returning value to shareholders through share repurchases.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LULU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$132.04
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$127.82
+3.3% from the low
52-Week High
$340.25
-61.2% from the high
1 Month
-15.46%
3 Month
-23.61%
YTD
-37.4%
1 Year
-51.2%
3Y CAGR
-29.8%
5Y CAGR
-16.3%
10Y CAGR
+7.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LULU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.1x
vs 22.9x median
-56% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs -1.8% median
+302% above peer median
Net Margin
14.2%
vs 5.3% median
+166% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LUL LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $14.7B | 10.1x | +3.6% | 14.2% | Hold | +58.4% |
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $52.3B | 29.5x | -1.8% | 5.4% | Buy | +59.3% |
UAA UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $1.3B | 55.7x | -3.4% | -10.4% | Hold | +14.9% |
CRO CROX Crocs, Inc. | $5.3B | 7.9x | +4.0% | -2.6% | Buy | +1.1% |
PVH PVH PVH Corp. | $4.2B | 8.4x | -2.7% | 5.3% | Buy | +8.8% |
RL RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $50.4B | 22.9x | +4.1% | 11.7% | Buy | +15.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LULU Dividend and Capital Return
LULU returns 8.0% annually — null% through dividends and 8.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
8.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
119M
At 7.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsLULU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 70 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 35 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $209, implying +58.4% from the current price of $132. The bear case scenario is $124 and the bull case is $281.
02What is the LULU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LULU is $209 based on 70 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $250 (+89.3% from today), and the low-end target is $170 (+28.7%). The base case model target is $152.
03Is Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) stock overvalued in 2026?
LULU trades at 10.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LULU in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Headwinds — High inflation and a challenging macroeconomic environment have negatively impacted consumer sentiment, particularly affecting Lululemon's premium athleisure segment. (2) Execution and Competition — Lululemon faces significant internal execution challenges, including long product life cycles that lead to stale offerings. (3) Supply Chain Disruptions — Disruptions in the supply chain, particularly due to reliance on international suppliers, pose a substantial risk to Lululemon's operating and financial results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LULU will report consensus revenue of $11.5B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.01 (+5.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.5B in revenue.
06When does Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LULU is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lululemon Athletica Inc. generate?
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) generated $922M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.3%. LULU returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).