Upside case
Bull case
$242+55.8%
SAP would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
SAP SE (SAP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
43
analysts
22 bullish · 7 bearish · 43 covering SAP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
14
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$241
+55.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$116 – $242
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $180.9B
SAP price targets
Three scenarios for where SAP stock could go
Current
~$155
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $155
Bear
$116
Base
$184
Bull
$242
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$184+18.2%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$116-25.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push SAP down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
SAP SE
SAP · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
SAP is a global enterprise software company that provides business applications, technology platforms, and cloud services for organizations worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through software licenses and cloud subscriptions — with cloud services now representing over 40% of total revenue — along with consulting and support services. The company's key advantage is its deep integration across business functions — from finance to supply chain to HR — creating switching costs and network effects within its large enterprise customer base.
Market Cap
$180.9B
Revenue TTM
$36.8B
Net Income TTM
$7.0B
Net Margin
19.1%
SAP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.70/$1.63
Revenue
$10.6B/$9.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.69
Revenue
$10.6B/$9.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.89/$1.77
Revenue
$11.6B/$11.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.01/$1.92
Revenue
$11.2B/$11.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.70/$1.63 | +4.3% | $10.6B/$9.2B | +15.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86/$1.69 | +10.1% | $10.6B/$9.8B | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.89/$1.77 | +6.8% | $11.6B/$11.4B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.01/$1.92 | +4.7% | $11.2B/$11.2B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$40.1B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$44.6B
+11.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.85
+14.0% YoY
FY2
$7.77
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.4B
FCF Margin: 22.8%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.06
Expected Revenue
$11.5B
SAP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SAP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $25.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cloud
83.0%
+22.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA
46.1%
-3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cloud is the largest disclosed segment at 83.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 22.8% YoY.
EMEA is the largest reported region at 46.1%, down 3.6% YoY.
SAP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $173 — implies +11.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
11.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SAP
22.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
8% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SAP
22.5x
vs
Technology
29.0x
22% discount
vs SAP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.5x
vs
5Y Average
49.4x
54% discount
Forward PE
21.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+12%
Technology
22.3x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-8%
Technology
29.0x
-22%
5Y Avg
49.4x
-54%
PEG Ratio
3.41x
S&P 500
1.66x
+105%
Technology
1.51x
+126%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-7%
Technology
16.6x
-15%
5Y Avg
27.8x
-49%
Price/FCF
19.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-4%
Technology
19.2x
+3%
5Y Avg
38.0x
-48%
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+38%
Technology
2.4x
+75%
5Y Avg
6.5x
-34%
Dividend Yield
1.66%
S&P 500
1.91%
-13%
Technology
1.11%
+50%
5Y Avg
1.36%
+22%
| Metric | SAP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.2x | 18.8x+12% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.5x | 24.4x | 29.0x-22% | 49.4x-54% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.41x | 1.66x+105% | 1.51x+126% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.2x | 16.6x-15% | 27.8x-49% |
| Price/FCF | 19.8x | 20.7x | 19.2x | 38.0x-48% |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.1x+38% | 2.4x+75% | 6.5x-34% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.36% |
SAP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSAP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SAP generates $8.4B in free cash flow at a 22.8% margin — 16.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$36.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
73.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$149M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSAP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
The stock's current trading price is significantly below the consensus price target, indicating potential overvaluation concerns.
High Risk
Revenue growth uncertainty
Revenue growth forecasts of 8.7% may not meet market expectations, posing risks to future performance.
Lower
Market competition
As a major ERP software provider, SAP faces intense competition in the cloud and enterprise software markets.
Medium
Earnings volatility
EPS forecasts show variability, with bear/base/bull scenarios suggesting potential earnings instability.
High Risk
Execution risk
Transitioning to a cloud-focused model may present operational challenges and execution risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SAP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Cloud growth momentum
SAP's near-term cloud growth and backlog execution are highlighted as key catalysts for financial performance, particularly by Q3 2025.
Sticky ERP suite
SAP's enterprise resource planning software is deeply integrated into businesses, providing a stable and recurring revenue base.
AI-driven efficiencies
The company's focus on AI-driven solutions enhances operational efficiencies and offers competitive advantages in the market.
Strong ecosystem partnerships
SAP's strategic alliances and partner recognition, such as with Answerthink for Business Data Cloud, bolster its market position and growth potential.
Large modernization deals
Significant long-term contracts, like Abertis adopting SAP software over five years, demonstrate customer commitment and revenue visibility.
Market-leading software
SAP offers industry-leading cloud, platform, and sustainability solutions, catering to enterprises of all sizes and sectors.
Sustainability solutions
SAP's focus on sustainability aligns with growing corporate demand for environmentally and socially responsible business practices.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SAP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$155.22
52W Range Position
1%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$154.13
+0.7% from the low
52-Week High
$313.28
-50.5% from the high
1 Month
-11.11%
3 Month
-15.52%
YTD
-34.5%
1 Year
-46.4%
3Y CAGR
+4.5%
5Y CAGR
+2.1%
10Y CAGR
+7.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SAP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.2x
vs 22.6x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +11.2% median
-19% below peer median
Net Margin
19.1%
vs 21.9% median
-13% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAP SAP SAP SE | $180.9B | 21.2x | +9.1% | 19.1% | Buy | +55.1% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $530.1B | 22.9x | +15.9% | 25.4% | Buy | +37.5% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $98.5B | 22.9x | +16.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +58.1% |
INT INTU Intuit Inc. | $73.0B | 11.2x | +8.5% | 21.9% | Buy | +69.6% |
ADS ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | $40.9B | 15.4x | +11.2% | 19.5% | Buy | +63.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SAP Dividend and Capital Return
SAP returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 1.66% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
1.66%
Payout Ratio
37.4%
How SAP Splits Its Return
Div 1.66%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 1.66%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.3%
5Y Div CAGR
8.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.94 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.63 | +10.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 2024 | $2.39 | +7.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 2023 | $2.23 | -14.4% | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $2.61 | +15.4% | 1.2% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsSAP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is SAP SE (SAP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
SAP SE (SAP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $241, implying +55.1% from the current price of $155. The bear case scenario is $116 and the bull case is $242.
02What is the SAP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SAP is $241 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $265 (+70.7% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (+28.8%). The base case model target is $184.
03Is SAP SE (SAP) stock overvalued in 2026?
SAP trades at 21.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for SAP SE (SAP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SAP in 2026 are: (1) Revenue growth uncertainty — Revenue growth forecasts of 8. (2) Execution risk — Transitioning to a cloud-focused model may present operational challenges and execution risks. (3) Valuation de-rating — The stock's current trading price is significantly below the consensus price target, indicating potential overvaluation concerns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is SAP SE's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SAP will report consensus revenue of $40.1B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.85 (+14.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $44.6B in revenue.
06When does SAP SE (SAP) report its next earnings?
SAP SE is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $2.06 and revenue of $11.5B. Over recent quarters, SAP has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does SAP SE generate?
SAP SE (SAP) generated $8.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.8%. SAP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).