Upside case
Bull case
$203+17.5%
SAP would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
SAP SE (SAP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
43
analysts
22 bullish · 7 bearish · 43 covering SAP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
14
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$392
+127.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$81 – $203
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $200.9B
SAP price targets
Three scenarios for where SAP stock could go
Current
~$172
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $172
Bear
$81
Base
$179
Bull
$203
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$179+3.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SAP — at roughly 24x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$81-53.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push SAP down roughly 53% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
SAP SE
SAP · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
SAP is a global enterprise software company that provides business applications, technology platforms, and cloud services for organizations worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through software licenses and cloud subscriptions — with cloud services now representing over 40% of total revenue — along with consulting and support services. The company's key advantage is its deep integration across business functions — from finance to supply chain to HR — creating switching costs and network effects within its large enterprise customer base.
Market Cap
$200.9B
Revenue TTM
$36.8B
Net Income TTM
$7.0B
Net Margin
19.1%
SAP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.70/$1.63
Revenue
$10.6B/$9.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.69
Revenue
$10.6B/$9.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.89/$1.77
Revenue
$11.6B/$11.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.01/$1.92
Revenue
$11.2B/$11.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.70/$1.63 | +4.3% | $10.6B/$9.2B | +15.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86/$1.69 | +10.1% | $10.6B/$9.8B | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.89/$1.77 | +6.8% | $11.6B/$11.4B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.01/$1.92 | +4.7% | $11.2B/$11.2B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$40.0B
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$43.3B
+8.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.71
+11.7% YoY
FY2
$7.25
+8.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.4B
FCF Margin: 22.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SAP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SAP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $25.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cloud
83.0%
+22.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA
46.1%
-3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cloud is the largest disclosed segment at 83.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 22.8% YoY.
EMEA is the largest reported region at 46.1%, down 3.6% YoY.
SAP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $206 — implies +20.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
20.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SAP
24.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SAP
24.5x
vs
Technology
26.7x
8% discount
vs SAP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.5x
vs
5Y Average
49.4x
50% discount
Forward PE
23.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+23%
Technology
22.1x
+6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-2%
Technology
26.7x
-8%
5Y Avg
49.4x
-50%
PEG Ratio
3.71x
S&P 500
1.72x
+116%
Technology
1.52x
+144%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1%
Technology
17.5x
-12%
5Y Avg
27.8x
-45%
Price/FCF
21.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+2%
Technology
19.5x
+10%
5Y Avg
38.0x
-43%
Price/Sales
4.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+49%
Technology
2.4x
+90%
5Y Avg
6.5x
-28%
Dividend Yield
1.53%
S&P 500
1.87%
-18%
Technology
1.16%
+32%
5Y Avg
1.36%
+12%
| Metric | SAP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.5x | 19.1x+23% | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.5x | 25.1x | 26.7x | 49.4x-50% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.71x | 1.72x+116% | 1.52x+144% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.4x | 15.2x | 17.5x-12% | 27.8x-45% |
| Price/FCF | 21.6x | 21.1x | 19.5x+10% | 38.0x-43% |
| Price/Sales | 4.7x | 3.1x+49% | 2.4x+90% | 6.5x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.53% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 1.36% |
SAP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSAP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SAP generates $8.4B in free cash flow at a 22.8% margin — 16.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$36.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
73.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$149M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSAP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Compliance
SAP’s SAP systems manage critical business functions, making compliance with GDPR, SOX, and other regulations challenging. The complex, disconnected architecture and manual point‑in‑time audits create visibility gaps, increasing the risk of fines, legal action, and reputational damage.
High Risk
Cybersecurity & Access
SAP environments are attractive targets for cybercriminals due to the sensitive data they hold. Excessive user privileges, inactive accounts, and limited visibility over access rights heighten the risk of unauthorized access, data breaches, fraud, and system failures.
Medium
Market Competition & AI Disruption
Competitors such as Microsoft and Salesforce are gaining market share in the enterprise cloud space, while AI’s ability to transform code development could shrink demand for traditional enterprise software. These forces threaten SAP’s revenue growth and market position.
Medium
Cloud Transition & Transformation
SAP’s S/4HANA migration and shift to consumption‑based AI pricing face customer hesitation and slow revenue growth, potentially indicating market share losses. Linking usage‑based costs to business outcomes and ensuring ROI remain challenging.
Lower
Operational Process Risks
Inadequate internal processes, such as message transaction failures between applications, inefficient provisioning of user access, and insecure custom code, can cause production chain disruptions, bottlenecks, and losses.
Lower
Financial Resilience & Valuation
Although SAP has a recurring revenue model, weak cash flow per share generation raises questions about capital allocation effectiveness. A high P/E ratio suggests the stock may be overvalued, creating downside risk if transformation efforts do not accelerate.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SAP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Cloud Revenue Momentum
SAP’s cloud revenue is growing at 23‑26% year‑over‑year for FY2025, while its cloud backlog has expanded 22‑30% YoY, providing a clear pipeline of future revenue.
RISE & GROW Adoption
The Cloud ERP Suite, especially RISE with SAP and GROW with SAP, is driving customer migration to the cloud, boosting revenue and increasing contract predictability.
AI Integration
SAP is embedding artificial intelligence across its offerings, expected to deliver margin improvements and generate new revenue streams in line with industry AI trends.
Free Cash Flow & Dividend Policy
The company consistently exceeds profit and free‑cash‑flow expectations, with a healthy FCF generation and a planned dividend increase for fiscal year 2025.
Geographic Expansion & Partnerships
SAP’s expansion into new regions, highlighted by a partnership with Alibaba, unlocks long‑term growth potential and broadens its global footprint.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SAP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$172.39
52W Range Position
8%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$160.68
+7.3% from the low
52-Week High
$313.28
-45.0% from the high
1 Month
+0.74%
3 Month
-12.67%
YTD
-27.2%
1 Year
-43.0%
3Y CAGR
+8.6%
5Y CAGR
+4.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SAP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.5x
vs 22.1x median
+6% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.8%
vs +9.4% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
19.1%
vs 21.6% median
-11% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAP SAP SAP SE | $200.9B | 23.5x | +8.8% | 19.1% | Buy | +127.2% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $533.2B | 24.8x | +6.4% | 25.3% | Buy | +38.7% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $95.3B | 22.1x | +18.0% | 12.6% | Buy | +64.7% |
INT INTU Intuit Inc. | $111.2B | 17.2x | +9.4% | 21.6% | Buy | +67.4% |
ADS ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | $53.4B | 20.1x | +16.9% | 16.6% | Buy | +35.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SAP Dividend and Capital Return
SAP returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 1.53% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
1.53%
Payout Ratio
37.4%
How SAP Splits Its Return
Div 1.53%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 1.53%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-0.4%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.13 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.63 | +10.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 2024 | $2.39 | +9.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 2023 | $2.19 | -17.8% | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $2.66 | +21.5% | 1.2% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsSAP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is SAP SE (SAP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
SAP SE (SAP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $392, implying +127.2% from the current price of $172. The bear case scenario is $81 and the bull case is $203.
02What is the SAP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SAP is $392 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $718 (+316.5% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (+16.0%). The base case model target is $179.
03Is SAP SE (SAP) stock overvalued in 2026?
SAP trades at 23.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for SAP SE (SAP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SAP in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Compliance — SAP’s SAP systems manage critical business functions, making compliance with GDPR, SOX, and other regulations challenging. (2) Cybersecurity & Access — SAP environments are attractive targets for cybercriminals due to the sensitive data they hold. (3) Market Competition & AI Disruption — Competitors such as Microsoft and Salesforce are gaining market share in the enterprise cloud space, while AI’s ability to transform code development could shrink demand for traditional enterprise software. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is SAP SE's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SAP will report consensus revenue of $40.0B (+8.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.71 (+11.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $43.3B in revenue.
06When does SAP SE (SAP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SAP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does SAP SE generate?
SAP SE (SAP) generated $8.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.8%. SAP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).