Upside case
Bull case
$325+91.6%
PAG would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering PAG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$190
+11.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$123 – $325
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
PAG price targets
Three scenarios for where PAG stock could go
Current
~$170
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $170
Bear
$123
Base
$189
Bull
$325
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$189+11.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PAG — at roughly 14x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$123-27.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push PAG down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - DealershipsDecember year-end
Penske Automotive Group is a diversified transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships across multiple brands. It generates revenue primarily through vehicle sales—both new and used—which account for roughly 80% of total revenue, supplemented by finance and insurance products, service and parts sales, and commercial truck operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified brand portfolio across premium and mainstream segments, extensive geographic footprint with 320 dealerships, and strong manufacturer relationships that provide scale advantages in purchasing and operations.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$32.1B
Net Income TTM
$926M
Net Margin
2.9%
PAG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.78/—
Revenue
$7.7B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.23/$3.48
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.91/$3.19
Revenue
$7.8B/$7.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.05/$2.91
Revenue
$7.9B/$7.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.78/— | — | $7.7B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $3.23/$3.48 | -7.2% | $7.7B/$7.6B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.91/$3.19 | -8.8% | $7.8B/$7.6B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.05/$2.91 | +4.8% | $7.9B/$7.7B | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$32.8B
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$33.9B
+3.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.71
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$15.73
+6.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$465M
FCF Margin: 1.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PAG beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PAG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $923M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial Vehicle Distribution And Other
100.0%
+18.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Commercial Vehicle Distribution And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 18.6% YoY.
PAG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $160 — implies -6.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAG
12.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PAG
12.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
39% discount
vs PAG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.0x
vs
5Y Average
9.1x
+32% premium
Forward PE
12.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-39%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+32%
PEG Ratio
0.75x
S&P 500
1.75x
-57%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-10%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+21%
5Y Avg
11.3x
+21%
Price/FCF
15.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-29%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+1%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+31%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-89%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-51%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+7%
Dividend Yield
3.06%
S&P 500
1.88%
+63%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+43%
5Y Avg
2.23%
+37%
| Metric | PAG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.8x | 19.1x-33% | 15.2x-16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.0x | 25.2x-52% | 19.6x-39% | 9.1x+32% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.75x | 1.75x-57% | 0.95x-21% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7x | 15.3x-10% | 11.4x+21% | 11.3x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 15.1x | 21.3x-29% | 15.0x | 11.5x+31% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-89% | 0.7x-51% | 0.3x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.06% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 2.23% |
PAG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
PAG returns 4.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$32.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$465M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$65M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
18.8× FCF
~18.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.5%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$159M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
66M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt Levels
PAG has a significant amount of debt on its balance sheet, totaling US$5.54 billion as of September 2025. High leverage poses a risk if the company struggles to meet its obligations, potentially leading to dilution of shareholder equity.
High Risk
Earnings Per Share Trend
PAG's earnings per share (EPS) has been declining at a rate of 8.8% annually over a recent period. This downward trend raises concerns about the company's profitability and financial health.
Medium
Gross Margins
The company has relatively low gross profit margins, averaging 16.5% over the last two years. This indicates that PAG operates in a competitive market with limited pricing power.
Medium
Same-Store Sales
PAG's same-store sales growth has averaged only 1.4% per year over the last two years, lagging behind its peers. This slow growth may signal challenges in maintaining market share.
Medium
Sales Declines in Luxury Segments
In Q2 2025, luxury brands under PAG, such as Porsche and Land Rover, experienced sales declines of 4.3% and 6.6%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter. This trend indicates potential weakening demand in key segments.
Medium
Challenging Market Conditions
PAG faces challenging market conditions, including the impact of increased vehicle excise duty in the UK, which has negatively affected new vehicle sales. Such external factors can hinder the company's growth prospects.
Lower
Operational Risk
PAG is exposed to operational risks stemming from people, processes, systems, and external events. This includes potential issues like system outages, data breaches, and regulatory breaches that could disrupt operations.
Lower
Stock Performance
PAG's shares have underperformed the broader S&P 500 index over the past six months. This decline in stock performance may affect investor sentiment and confidence in the company's future.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
PAG has demonstrated robust profitability, with Q1 2025 revenue climbing 2% year-over-year to $7.6 billion and net income surging 13.5% to $244.3 million. The company's used vehicle business has shown particular strength, contributing to significant growth in gross profit per unit.
Strategic Acquisitions and Diversification
PAG is actively reshaping its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and divestitures, including recent expansions with Chinese brands and Ferrari. This diverse portfolio of luxury and import brands helps stabilize revenue and offers substantial growth potential.
Disciplined Capital Allocation
PAG has a history of rewarding shareholders, recently raising its dividend by 3.3%, with a current yield of around 3.34%. The company has also been actively repurchasing shares, reflecting confidence in its valuation and operational momentum.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts covering PAG have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, with a consensus price target suggesting an upside potential of around 11.58% to 14.60%. This positive sentiment indicates strong market confidence in PAG's future performance.
Consistent Revenue Growth
PAG has shown a compound annual growth rate of 8% in revenue over the last 14 years, with a projected CAGR of 4% for the next five years. Operating income has also seen strong growth, with an 11% CAGR over the last 14 years.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$169.73
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$140.12
+21.1% from the low
52-Week High
$189.51
-10.4% from the high
1 Month
+14.13%
3 Month
+1.83%
YTD
+7.3%
1 Year
+9.1%
3Y CAGR
+6.7%
5Y CAGR
+12.9%
10Y CAGR
+16.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.8x
vs 8.4x median
+52% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.4%
vs +6.9% median
-65% below peer median
Net Margin
2.9%
vs 1.9% median
+53% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAG PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | $11.2B | 12.8x | +2.4% | 2.9% | Buy | +11.9% |
AN AN AutoNation, Inc. | $7.0B | 9.7x | +2.8% | 2.5% | Buy | +21.1% |
LAD LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $6.6B | 8.4x | +7.7% | 1.9% | Buy | +42.2% |
SAH SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $2.7B | 12.2x | +5.5% | 0.8% | Hold | -14.8% |
ABG ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $3.8B | 7.6x | +6.9% | 2.3% | Hold | +20.4% |
GPI GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $4.1B | 8.3x | +10.8% | 1.5% | Buy | +38.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAG Dividend and Capital Return
PAG returns 4.5% total yield, led by a 3.08% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
Payout Ratio
36.8%
How PAG Splits Its Return
Div 3.08%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 3.08%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
35.8%
5Y Div CAGR
43.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$159M
Estimated Shares Retired
937.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
66M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.18 | +26.7% | 1.5% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | $4.09 | +47.1% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $2.78 | +34.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| 2022 | $2.07 | +16.3% | 10.2% | 12.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $190, implying +11.9% from the current price of $170. The bear case scenario is $123 and the bull case is $325.
02What is the PAG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAG is $190 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+11.9% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (+11.9%). The base case model target is $189.
03Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAG trades at 12.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAG in 2026 are: (1) Debt Levels — PAG has a significant amount of debt on its balance sheet, totaling US$5. (2) Earnings Per Share Trend — PAG's earnings per share (EPS) has been declining at a rate of 8. (3) Gross Margins — The company has relatively low gross profit margins, averaging 16. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAG will report consensus revenue of $32.8B (+2.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.71 (+4.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $33.9B in revenue.
06When does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PAG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. generate?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) generated $465M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.4%. PAG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($159M TTM).