Upside case
Bull case
$276+57.7%
PAG would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering PAG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$177
+0.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$132 – $276
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.5B
PAG price targets
Three scenarios for where PAG stock could go
Current
~$175
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $175
Bear
$132
Base
$210
Bull
$276
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$210+19.7%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$132-24.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push PAG down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - DealershipsDecember year-end
Penske Automotive Group is a diversified transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships across multiple brands. It generates revenue primarily through vehicle sales—both new and used—which account for roughly 80% of total revenue, supplemented by finance and insurance products, service and parts sales, and commercial truck operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified brand portfolio across premium and mainstream segments, extensive geographic footprint with 320 dealerships, and strong manufacturer relationships that provide scale advantages in purchasing and operations.
Market Cap
$11.5B
Revenue TTM
$32.1B
Net Income TTM
$926M
Net Margin
2.9%
PAG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.78/—
Revenue
$7.7B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.23/$3.48
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.91/$3.19
Revenue
$7.8B/$7.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.05/$2.91
Revenue
$7.9B/$7.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.78/— | — | $7.7B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $3.23/$3.48 | -7.2% | $7.7B/$7.6B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.91/$3.19 | -8.8% | $7.8B/$7.6B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.05/$2.91 | +4.8% | $7.9B/$7.7B | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$33.7B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$34.9B
+3.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.21
+8.1% YoY
FY2
$16.38
+7.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$465M
FCF Margin: 1.4%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.48
Expected Revenue
$8.0B
PAG beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PAG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $923M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial Vehicle Distribution And Other
100.0%
+18.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Commercial Vehicle Distribution And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 18.6% YoY.
PAG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $106 — implies -39.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
39.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAG
12.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
49% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PAG
12.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
41% discount
vs PAG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.4x
vs
5Y Average
9.1x
+36% premium
Forward PE
13.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-30%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-49%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-41%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+36%
PEG Ratio
0.78x
S&P 500
1.66x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-8%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+15%
5Y Avg
11.3x
+24%
Price/FCF
15.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-25%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
0%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+36%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-88%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-48%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+10%
Dividend Yield
2.96%
S&P 500
1.91%
+55%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+36%
5Y Avg
2.23%
+33%
| Metric | PAG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.1x | 18.8x-30% | 16.3x-20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.4x | 24.4x-49% | 21.2x-41% | 9.1x+36% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.78x | 1.66x-53% | 0.92x-16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0x | 15.2x | 12.2x+15% | 11.3x+24% |
| Price/FCF | 15.6x | 20.7x-25% | 15.6x | 11.5x+36% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-88% | 0.7x-48% | 0.3x+10% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.96% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 2.23% |
PAG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
PAG returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$32.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$465M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$65M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
18.8× FCF
~18.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$159M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
66M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Production Risks
Penske Automotive Group disclosed significant risks in the 'Production' category, indicating potential challenges in manufacturing or supply chain operations.
Medium
Earnings Report Risks
The company reported 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, suggesting multiple areas of potential financial or operational vulnerability.
Lower
Dividend Sustainability
Despite announcing a 22nd quarterly dividend increase, the sustainability of dividends could be questioned if underlying risks materialize.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Resilient cash flow generation
PAG continues to generate strong and resilient cash flows, supporting its financial stability and growth potential.
Structural moats from dealerships
The company benefits from structural moats due to local dealership monopolies, providing a competitive advantage.
Recurring service revenue
PAG's recurring service revenue stream adds stability and predictability to its earnings.
Attractive valuation metrics
With trailing and forward P/E ratios around 12, PAG appears attractively valued compared to potential growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$175.20
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$140.12
+25.0% from the low
52-Week High
$189.51
-7.6% from the high
1 Month
+9.67%
3 Month
+22.29%
YTD
+10.8%
1 Year
+2.8%
3Y CAGR
+4.4%
5Y CAGR
+19.3%
10Y CAGR
+16.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.1x
vs 8.6x median
+53% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +7.2% median
-27% below peer median
Net Margin
2.9%
vs 1.9% median
+53% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAG PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | $11.5B | 13.1x | +5.2% | 2.9% | Buy | +0.9% |
AN AN AutoNation, Inc. | $6.5B | 8.8x | +7.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +23.9% |
LAD LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | $6.7B | 8.6x | +8.8% | 1.9% | Buy | +17.3% |
SAH SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $2.7B | 11.7x | +7.2% | 0.8% | Hold | -5.2% |
ABG ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | $3.8B | 7.6x | +5.8% | 2.3% | Hold | +14.9% |
GPI GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | $3.7B | 7.4x | +9.2% | 1.5% | Buy | +39.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAG Dividend and Capital Return
PAG returns 4.3% total yield, led by a 2.96% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
2.96%
Payout Ratio
36.8%
How PAG Splits Its Return
Div 2.96%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 2.96%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
35.8%
5Y Div CAGR
43.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$159M
Estimated Shares Retired
908.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
66M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.82 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.18 | +26.7% | 1.5% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | $4.09 | +47.1% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $2.78 | +34.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| 2022 | $2.07 | +16.3% | 10.2% | 12.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $177, implying +0.9% from the current price of $175. The bear case scenario is $132 and the bull case is $276.
02What is the PAG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAG is $177 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+8.4% from today), and the low-end target is $160 (-8.7%). The base case model target is $210.
03Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAG trades at 13.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAG in 2026 are: (1) Production Risks — Penske Automotive Group disclosed significant risks in the 'Production' category, indicating potential challenges in manufacturing or supply chain operations. (2) Earnings Report Risks — The company reported 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, suggesting multiple areas of potential financial or operational vulnerability. (3) Dividend Sustainability — Despite announcing a 22nd quarterly dividend increase, the sustainability of dividends could be questioned if underlying risks materialize. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAG will report consensus revenue of $33.7B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.21 (+8.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.9B in revenue.
06When does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) report its next earnings?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $3.48 and revenue of $8.0B. Over recent quarters, PAG has beaten EPS estimates 45% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. generate?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) generated $465M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.4%. PAG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($159M TTM).