Upside case
Bull case
$265+229.9%
UNM would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Unum Group (UNM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
30
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 30 covering UNM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
13
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$98
+22.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $265
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.0B
UNM price targets
Three scenarios for where UNM stock could go
Current
~$80
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $80
Bear
$67
Base
$145
Bull
$265
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$145+80.6%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-16.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push UNM down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Unum Group
UNM · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - LifeDecember year-end
Unum Group is a provider of workplace financial protection benefits, primarily offering disability, life, and supplemental insurance products to employers for their employees. It generates revenue through insurance premiums from its core segments — Unum US (~70% of premiums), Unum International, and Colonial Life — with group disability and life insurance being its largest offerings. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized expertise in workplace benefits distribution and its established relationships with employers and brokers across its core markets.
Market Cap
$13.0B
Revenue TTM
$13.3B
Net Income TTM
$781M
Net Margin
5.9%
UNM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.07/$2.23
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.09/$2.15
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.92/$2.11
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.14/$2.07
Revenue
$3.4B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.07/$2.23 | -7.2% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.09/$2.15 | -2.8% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.92/$2.11 | -9.0% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.14/$2.07 | +3.4% | $3.4B/$2.9B | +15.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.1B
-1.3% YoY
FY2
$13.5B
+3.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.79
+42.8% YoY
FY2
$7.73
+13.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$539M
FCF Margin: 4.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UNM beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
UNM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Unum US
60.7%
+2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Unum US is the largest disclosed segment at 60.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.4% YoY.
UNM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $71 — implies -12.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UNM
18.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
26% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
UNM
18.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+40% premium
vs UNM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.8x
vs
5Y Average
9.0x
+109% premium
Forward PE
9.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-52%
Financial Services
10.5x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-26%
Financial Services
13.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+109%
PEG Ratio
9.72x
S&P 500
1.75x
+457%
Financial Services
1.03x
+848%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+4%
Financial Services
11.4x
+39%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+84%
Price/FCF
23.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+9%
Financial Services
10.6x
+119%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+122%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-68%
Financial Services
2.3x
-56%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+26%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
S&P 500
1.88%
+17%
Financial Services
2.68%
-18%
5Y Avg
3.07%
-28%
| Metric | UNM | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg UNM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.2x | 19.1x-52% | 10.5x-13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.8x | 25.2x-26% | 13.4x+40% | 9.0x+109% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.72x | 1.75x+457% | 1.03x+848% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8x | 15.3x | 11.4x+39% | 8.6x+84% |
| Price/FCF | 23.3x | 21.3x | 10.6x+119% | 10.5x+122% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-68% | 2.3x-56% | 0.8x+26% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.07% |
UNM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUNM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
UNM posts 5.9% net margin with 7.1% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.75
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
7.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$158M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.0%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
7.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.77
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
161M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageUNM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Concentration
The University of New Mexico (UNM) faces significant risks related to revenue concentration, as a large portion of its income may come from a limited number of sources. This reliance can lead to financial instability if any of these sources are adversely affected.
High Risk
Operating Deficit
UNM reported a full-accrual operating deficit in fiscal year 2023, primarily due to lower net tuition revenue, reduced federal stimulus, and higher labor costs at its hospital. This deficit raises concerns about the institution's financial sustainability.
High Risk
Long-Term Care Risks
Unum Group (UNM) has persistent risks associated with its Long-Term Care block of business, which can lead to volatility in financial results. The need for risk discounting for reserves in this segment adds further uncertainty to its financial health.
High Risk
Claim Incidence Rates
Increased long-term care incidence rates and potential reviews of actuarial assumptions introduce significant uncertainty to Unum's financial outlook. These factors could lead to higher-than-expected claims and reserve requirements.
Medium
Tuition Discounting
Increasing tuition discounting at UNM can negatively impact its financial resources, leading to reduced revenue and potential budgetary constraints. This trend may affect the university's ability to fund programs and services.
Medium
Labor Costs
Higher labor costs, particularly at the University of New Mexico Hospital, have contributed to weaker operating performance. This trend could continue to strain financial resources and impact overall profitability.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Unum Group is currently trading at a higher P/E ratio compared to the insurance industry average, suggesting potential overvaluation. Analysts have issued a 'Hold' rating, indicating limited upside at the current valuation.
Lower
Regulatory Environment
Changes in regulations affecting the insurance industry could impact Unum's operations and profitability. While this risk is present, it is considered lower in severity compared to other financial and operational risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UNM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Favorable Industry Conditions
Unum Group operates in a life insurance industry that is experiencing steady improvement, characterized by enhanced returns, reduced liability risks, and strong free cash flow conversion. This positive environment is driven by higher interest rates, favorable demographic trends, and technological advancements, contributing to mid-single-digit premium growth and robust profitability.
Competitive Advantage
The company possesses a competitive edge through its established group benefits franchise, which generates over 20% return on equity (ROE) and exhibits more than 90% free cash flow conversion.
Revenue Growth and Beat
In Q1 2026, Unum Group beat Wall Street's revenue expectations, with sales up 1.7% year on year to $3.36 billion. The company also reported strong premium growth in its core business.
Undervaluation Potential
One analysis suggests that Unum Group may be materially undervalued, with an intrinsic value estimate of approximately $166.98 per share, implying a significant discount to its recent share price.
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
A significant number of Wall Street analysts hold a positive outlook on UNM, with the consensus rating generally being 'Buy' or 'Moderate Buy.' The average 12-month price target from various analysts ranges from approximately $90.67 to $94.77, implying an upside potential of around 16.60% to 20.28% from recent stock prices.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UNM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$80.27
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$68.28
+17.6% from the low
52-Week High
$83.13
-3.4% from the high
1 Month
+5.84%
3 Month
+7.66%
YTD
+3.9%
1 Year
+1.0%
3Y CAGR
+21.5%
5Y CAGR
+21.7%
10Y CAGR
+9.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UNM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.2x
vs 8.2x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.3%
vs -0.3% median
-297% below peer median
Net Margin
5.9%
vs 5.6% median
+5% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNM UNM Unum Group | $13.0B | 9.2x | -1.3% | 5.9% | Hold | +22.1% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.3B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 4.4% | Buy | +20.4% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -5.9% | 5.6% | Hold | +4.0% |
LNC LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $6.4B | 4.9x | +21.9% | 11.4% | Hold | +15.6% |
GNW GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | $3.6B | 21.3x | -8.4% | 3.6% | Hold | — |
PFG PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $22.0B | 10.9x | -0.3% | 7.6% | Hold | -6.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UNM Dividend and Capital Return
UNM returns capital mainly through $1.0B/year in buybacks (7.7% buyback yield), with a modest 2.19% dividend — combining for 9.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
9.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.7%
Dividend Yield
2.19%
Payout Ratio
41.5%
How UNM Splits Its Return
Div 2.19%
Buyback 7.7%
Dividend 2.19%Buybacks 7.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.77
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.8%
5Y Div CAGR
9.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
13M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
161M
At 7.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.76 | +12.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% |
| 2024 | $1.57 | +12.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% |
| 2023 | $1.39 | +10.3% | 2.8% | 5.9% |
| 2022 | $1.26 | +7.7% | 2.4% | 5.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsUNM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Unum Group (UNM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Unum Group (UNM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $98, implying +22.1% from the current price of $80. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $265.
02What is the UNM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UNM is $98 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $115 (+43.3% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (+5.9%). The base case model target is $145.
03Is Unum Group (UNM) stock overvalued in 2026?
UNM trades at 9.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Unum Group (UNM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UNM in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Concentration — The University of New Mexico (UNM) faces significant risks related to revenue concentration, as a large portion of its income may come from a limited number of sources. (2) Operating Deficit — UNM reported a full-accrual operating deficit in fiscal year 2023, primarily due to lower net tuition revenue, reduced federal stimulus, and higher labor costs at its hospital. (3) Long-Term Care Risks — Unum Group (UNM) has persistent risks associated with its Long-Term Care block of business, which can lead to volatility in financial results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Unum Group's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UNM will report consensus revenue of $13.1B (-1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.79 (+42.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.5B in revenue.
06When does Unum Group (UNM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UNM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Unum Group generate?
Unum Group (UNM) generated $539M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.1%. UNM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).