Upside case
Bull case
$39+83.9%
PR would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Permian Resources Corporation (PR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering PR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
16
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$22
+5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $39
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.6B
PR price targets
Three scenarios for where PR stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
32 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Base
$18
Bull
$39
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$18-17.3%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Permian Resources Corporation
PR · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Permian Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on developing crude oil and liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the Delaware Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It generates revenue primarily from oil sales (roughly 70% of total revenue), with natural gas and natural gas liquids making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its concentrated, high-quality acreage position in the core of the Delaware Basin — one of the most productive and cost-competitive oil regions in the United States.
Market Cap
$17.6B
Revenue TTM
$3.7B
Net Income TTM
$649M
Net Margin
17.6%
PR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.42/$0.42
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.27/$0.27
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.31
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.45/$0.28
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.42/$0.42 | -0.8% | $1.4B/$1.4B | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.27/$0.27 | +0.0% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.37/$0.31 | +20.2% | $1.3B/$1.3B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45/$0.28 | +58.5% | $1.2B/$1.3B | -9.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
-17.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.27
+3.2% YoY
FY2
$1.06
-16.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 27.4%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.37
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
PR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Crude Oil
96.5%
-2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Crude Oil is the largest disclosed segment at 96.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.6% YoY.
PR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $28 — implies +27.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
27.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PR
16.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
34% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PR
16.6x
vs
Energy
16.9x
In line with benchmark
vs PR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.6x
vs
5Y Average
10.1x
+63% premium
Forward PE
11.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-40%
Energy
13.2x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-34%
Energy
16.9x
-2%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+63%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-61%
Energy
8.1x
-26%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+53%
Price/FCF
31.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+48%
Energy
14.1x
+123%
5Y Avg
15.8x
+99%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+11%
Energy
1.6x
+122%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+96%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
S&P 500
1.88%
+54%
Energy
2.97%
-3%
5Y Avg
3.07%
-6%
| Metric | PR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.5x | 19.1x-40% | 13.2x-13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.6x | 25.2x-34% | 16.9x | 10.1x+63% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0x | 15.3x-61% | 8.1x-26% | 3.9x+53% |
| Price/FCF | 31.5x | 21.3x+48% | 14.1x+123% | 15.8x+99% |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+11% | 1.6x+122% | 1.8x+96% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.89% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 3.07% |
PR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PR generates $1.0B in free cash flow at a 27.4% margin — returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-28.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
38.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.78
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$154M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.5× FCF
~3.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$74M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
828M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Operational Performance
Underwhelming well results and declining productivity can significantly impact stock performance. Struggles to generate synergies and reduce well costs from previous acquisitions may hinder financial objectives and growth potential.
High Risk
Financial Health
Permian Resources has a current ratio of 0.8x, indicating potential short-term liquidity issues. Additionally, a dividend that is not well-covered by free cash flows poses a risk to the company's financial stability.
High Risk
Commodity Prices
Expectations for weaker commodity prices present a significant risk to the company's overall financial condition and future performance.
Medium
Market Volatility
Stock prices can be significantly influenced by market behavior, with earnings announcements or M&A news leading to substantial volatility. Negative media reports can also trigger a decline in stock prices.
Medium
Regulatory Scrutiny
Intense media scrutiny during financial uncertainty can lead to increased regulatory scrutiny and legal fees. Companies must maintain honesty in communications to avoid exaggerated claims that damage trust.
Medium
Reputational Damage
Poorly executed public relations can lead to significant reputational damage, potentially torpedoing valuations and spurring regulatory scrutiny. A single misstep can ignite a crisis that results in substantial market value loss.
Lower
Insider Selling
Significant insider selling over the past three months raises concerns about the company's future prospects and may negatively impact investor confidence.
Lower
Transparency and Disclosure
Lack of transparency and failure to disclose important risks can lead to investors feeling blindsided, resulting in a plummeting stock price and damaged reputation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Operational Efficiency and Cost Advantage
Permian Resources benefits from very low operating costs in the Delaware Basin, providing a significant cost advantage over competitors. Additionally, falling drilling and completion costs further enhance this operational efficiency.
Strong Financial Position
The company has a sizeable proved reserve base and a multi-year drilling runway. Its balance sheet is robust, featuring a net debt to EBITDAX ratio of 0.8x and an investment-grade rating.
Capital Allocation Strategy
Capital is strategically deployed across dividends, bolt-on mergers and acquisitions, debt reduction, and share buybacks. The 2026 plan aims for modest production growth while lowering capital expenditures to boost free cash flow per share.
Undervaluation
Analyses suggest that Permian Resources is significantly undervalued, with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model indicating it could be as much as 69.6% undervalued.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of Wall Street analysts rate PR as a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy', with Zacks Rank also rating PR as a #1 (Strong Buy).
Momentum and Performance
The stock has shown strong performance over various timeframes, including an 89.1% return over the last year, significantly outpacing the broader S&P 500.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.21
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$11.64
+82.2% from the low
52-Week High
$22.68
-6.5% from the high
1 Month
+0.38%
3 Month
+25.28%
YTD
+47.3%
1 Year
+77.2%
3Y CAGR
+27.7%
5Y CAGR
+36.2%
10Y CAGR
+7.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.5x
vs 8.0x median
+43% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.4%
vs +15.8% median
-47% below peer median
Net Margin
17.6%
vs 14.4% median
+22% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR PR Permian Resources Corporation | $17.6B | 11.5x | +8.4% | 17.6% | Buy | +5.1% |
MTD MTDR Matador Resources Company | $7.2B | 8.0x | +10.4% | 14.4% | Buy | +18.2% |
CIV CIVI Civitas Resources, Inc. | $2.3B | 6.8x | +38.0% | 13.6% | Hold | +13.2% |
SM SM SM Energy Company | $3.3B | 4.3x | +44.0% | 20.5% | Buy | +1.6% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
FAN FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 10.9x | +15.8% | 2.7% | Buy | +3.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PR Dividend and Capital Return
PR returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.89% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
Payout Ratio
47.9%
How PR Splits Its Return
Div 2.89%
Dividend 2.89%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
128.9%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$74M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
828M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.16 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | -15.5% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | $0.71 | +163.0% | 0.6% | 5.4% |
| 2023 | $0.27 | +440.0% | 3.1% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | $0.05 | — | 0.6% | 1.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsPR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Permian Resources Corporation (PR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Permian Resources Corporation (PR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $22, implying +5.1% from the current price of $21.
02What is the PR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PR is $22 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+27.3% from today), and the low-end target is $18 (-15.1%). The base case model target is $18.
03Is Permian Resources Corporation (PR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PR trades at 11.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Permian Resources Corporation (PR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PR in 2026 are: (1) Operational Performance — Underwhelming well results and declining productivity can significantly impact stock performance. (2) Financial Health — Permian Resources has a current ratio of 0. (3) Commodity Prices — Expectations for weaker commodity prices present a significant risk to the company's overall financial condition and future performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Permian Resources Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PR will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+8.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.27 (+3.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does Permian Resources Corporation (PR) report its next earnings?
Permian Resources Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.37 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, PR has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Permian Resources Corporation generate?
Permian Resources Corporation (PR) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.4%. PR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($74M TTM).