Upside case
Bull case
$671+259.8%
QCOM would need investors to value it at roughly 62x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
69
analysts
31 bullish · 4 bearish · 69 covering QCOM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
30
Hold
34
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$175
-6.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$54 – $671
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
69
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $196.6B
QCOM price targets
Three scenarios for where QCOM stock could go
Current
~$187
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $187
Bear
$54
Base
$402
Bull
$671
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$402+115.7%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$54-70.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push QCOM down roughly 71% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsSeptember year-end
Qualcomm is a semiconductor and wireless technology company that designs and licenses foundational technologies for mobile communications. It generates revenue primarily through selling smartphone chipsets (~75% of revenue) and licensing its extensive patent portfolio for wireless standards like 5G (~25% of revenue). The company's key advantage is its massive portfolio of essential wireless patents—particularly in CDMA and 5G—which creates a licensing moat that generates high-margin recurring revenue.
Market Cap
$196.6B
Revenue TTM
$44.5B
Net Income TTM
$9.9B
Net Margin
22.3%
QCOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.77/$2.71
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.00/$2.87
Revenue
$11.3B/$10.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.50/$3.39
Revenue
$12.3B/$12.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.65/$2.56
Revenue
$10.6B/$10.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.77/$2.71 | +2.2% | $10.4B/$10.3B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.00/$2.87 | +4.5% | $11.3B/$10.8B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.50/$3.39 | +3.2% | $12.3B/$12.1B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.65/$2.56 | +3.5% | $10.6B/$10.6B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$45.1B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$48.2B
+6.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.51
+13.5% YoY
FY2
$10.80
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.5B
FCF Margin: 28.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
QCOM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
QCOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $43.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
QCT
87.3%
+15.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
QCT is the largest disclosed segment at 87.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.6% YoY.
QCOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $503 — implies +184.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
184.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
QCOM
37.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+48% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
QCOM
37.2x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+39% premium
vs QCOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.2x
vs
5Y Average
19.3x
+93% premium
Forward PE
17.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-9%
Technology
22.1x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
+48%
Technology
26.7x
+39%
5Y Avg
19.3x
+93%
PEG Ratio
17.90x
S&P 500
1.72x
+943%
Technology
1.52x
+1075%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Technology
17.5x
-16%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+10%
Price/FCF
15.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-27%
Technology
19.5x
-21%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-5%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+42%
Technology
2.4x
+82%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+11%
Dividend Yield
1.85%
S&P 500
1.87%
-1%
Technology
1.16%
+59%
5Y Avg
2.25%
-18%
| Metric | QCOM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg QCOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.4x | 19.1x | 22.1x-22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.2x | 25.1x+48% | 26.7x+39% | 19.3x+93% |
| PEG Ratio | 17.90x | 1.72x+943% | 1.52x+1075% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.2x | 17.5x-16% | 13.3x+10% |
| Price/FCF | 15.3x | 21.1x-27% | 19.5x-21% | 16.1x |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+42% | 2.4x+82% | 4.0x+11% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.85% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 2.25% |
QCOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolQCOM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
QCOM generates $12.5B in free cash flow at a 28.1% margin — 29.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$44.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.26
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
4.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.44
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageQCOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Mobile Handset Revenue Dependence
Qualcomm derives a large share of its revenue from mobile handset sales, making it vulnerable to slowdowns in smartphone demand or shifts in innovation cycles. A sustained decline could materially reduce top‑line growth and margin contribution.
High Risk
Apple In‑House Modem Development
Apple’s move to design its own modem chips threatens Qualcomm’s royalty and chip revenue from its largest customer. Losing this partnership could cut a significant portion of its handset segment earnings.
High Risk
China Market Concentration
A substantial portion of Qualcomm’s business is concentrated in China, exposing it to U.S.-China trade tensions, export restrictions, and national security concerns that could disrupt supply chains and sales.
Medium
Semiconductor Industry Cyclicality
Qualcomm operates in a highly cyclical market, where downturns in global or regional demand can sharply reduce orders and compress margins.
Medium
Rising Production Costs
Advances to leading process technology nodes are expected to drive semiconductor wafer costs upward, squeezing Qualcomm’s gross margins if pricing power is limited.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Challenges
Qualcomm faces ongoing investigations, litigation, and compliance obligations that could result in significant legal expenses, fines, or changes to patent licensing practices.
Lower
Slowing Core Growth
While diversifying into automotive and AI, Qualcomm’s core handset business faces headwinds, leading to modest revenue growth projections and potential earnings pressure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why QCOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Automotive Revenue Surge
Qualcomm’s automotive segment is accelerating, with management guiding for over 35% revenue growth in Q2. Snapdragon Digital Chassis has secured design wins with multiple global OEMs, positioning the company to hit $6‑$7 billion in automotive revenue by 2028.
AI On‑Device Leadership
The firm is a leader in AI on‑device technology, highlighted by Snapdragon Elite design wins that reinforce its AI dominance across mobile and automotive platforms.
Deep Value via Low P/E
Qualcomm’s forward P/E sits between 11.79x and 13.95x, making it one of the cheapest among major semiconductor peers and offering a deep value setup if growth reaccelerates.
Robust Shareholder Returns
A $20 billion share buyback program is underway, coupled with 23 consecutive dividend increases and a dividend yield of 2.7%‑3.4%, underscoring strong shareholder value.
Record Q1 FY2026 Performance
The company reported record Q1 FY2026 revenue of $12.3 billion, with earnings per share beating consensus estimates, signaling solid financial momentum.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
QCOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$186.56
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$121.99
+52.9% from the low
52-Week High
$205.95
-9.4% from the high
1 Month
+48.38%
3 Month
+36.87%
YTD
+7.9%
1 Year
+33.8%
3Y CAGR
+19.7%
5Y CAGR
+6.7%
10Y CAGR
+13.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
QCOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.4x
vs 37.8x median
-54% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs -2.1% median
+167% above peer median
Net Margin
22.3%
vs 9.2% median
+142% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $196.6B | 17.4x | +1.4% | 22.3% | Hold | -6.2% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $2.03T | 37.8x | +38.9% | 36.6% | Buy | +3.8% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $146.1B | 44.0x | +29.9% | 32.6% | Buy | -23.2% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $10.9B | 15.4x | -4.9% | 8.9% | Buy | -13.6% |
QRV QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | $8.9B | 14.8x | -2.1% | 9.2% | Hold | -11.5% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $53.3B | 62.8x | -8.5% | -2.2% | Buy | -11.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
QCOM Dividend and Capital Return
QCOM returns capital mainly through $8.8B/year in buybacks (4.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.85% dividend — combining for 6.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 23 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.5%
Dividend Yield
1.85%
Payout Ratio
68.7%
How QCOM Splits Its Return
Div 1.85%
Buyback 4.5%
Dividend 1.85%Buybacks 4.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.44
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.5%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
47M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
At 4.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.81 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.52 | +5.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% |
| 2024 | $3.35 | +6.3% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| 2023 | $3.15 | +5.0% | 2.4% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $3.00 | +11.5% | 2.4% | 4.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsQCOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 69 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $175, implying -6.2% from the current price of $187. The bear case scenario is $54 and the bull case is $671.
02What is the QCOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for QCOM is $175 based on 69 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+60.8% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (-35.7%). The base case model target is $402.
03Is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
QCOM trades at 17.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for QCOM in 2026 are: (1) Mobile Handset Revenue Dependence — Qualcomm derives a large share of its revenue from mobile handset sales, making it vulnerable to slowdowns in smartphone demand or shifts in innovation cycles. (2) Apple In‑House Modem Development — Apple’s move to design its own modem chips threatens Qualcomm’s royalty and chip revenue from its largest customer. (3) China Market Concentration — A substantial portion of Qualcomm’s business is concentrated in China, exposing it to U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is QUALCOMM Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates QCOM will report consensus revenue of $45.1B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.51 (+13.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $48.2B in revenue.
06When does QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for QCOM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does QUALCOMM Incorporated generate?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) generated $12.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.1%. QCOM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($8.8B TTM).