Upside case
Bull case
$603+166.5%
QCOM would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 35x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
69
analysts
31 bullish · 4 bearish · 69 covering QCOM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
30
Hold
34
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$191
-15.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$288 – $603
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
69
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $238.3B
QCOM price targets
Three scenarios for where QCOM stock could go
Current
~$226
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $226
Bear
$288
Base
$457
Bull
$603
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$457+102.3%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$288+27.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push QCOM down roughly 27% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsSeptember year-end
Qualcomm is a semiconductor and wireless technology company that designs and licenses foundational technologies for mobile communications. It generates revenue primarily through selling smartphone chipsets (~75% of revenue) and licensing its extensive patent portfolio for wireless standards like 5G (~25% of revenue). The company's key advantage is its massive portfolio of essential wireless patents—particularly in CDMA and 5G—which creates a licensing moat that generates high-margin recurring revenue.
Market Cap
$238.3B
Revenue TTM
$44.5B
Net Income TTM
$9.9B
Net Margin
22.3%
QCOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.77/$2.71
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.00/$2.87
Revenue
$11.3B/$10.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.50/$3.39
Revenue
$12.3B/$12.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.65/$2.56
Revenue
$10.6B/$10.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.77/$2.71 | +2.2% | $10.4B/$10.3B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.00/$2.87 | +4.5% | $11.3B/$10.8B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.50/$3.39 | +3.2% | $12.3B/$12.1B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.65/$2.56 | +3.5% | $10.6B/$10.6B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$46.6B
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$47.4B
+1.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.58
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$10.82
+2.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.5B
FCF Margin: 28.1%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.23
Expected Revenue
$9.7B
QCOM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
QCOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $43.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
QCT
87.3%
+15.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
QCT is the largest disclosed segment at 87.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.6% YoY.
QCOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $590 — implies +160.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
160.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
QCOM
45.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+85% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
QCOM
45.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+56% premium
vs QCOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
45.1x
vs
5Y Average
19.3x
+134% premium
Forward PE
21.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+12%
Technology
22.3x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
45.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+85%
Technology
29.0x
+56%
5Y Avg
19.3x
+134%
PEG Ratio
21.70x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1208%
Technology
1.51x
+1341%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+16%
Technology
16.6x
+6%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+33%
Price/FCF
18.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-10%
Technology
19.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+16%
Price/Sales
5.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+74%
Technology
2.4x
+121%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+35%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
S&P 500
1.91%
-20%
Technology
1.11%
+38%
5Y Avg
2.25%
-32%
| Metric | QCOM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg QCOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.1x | 18.8x+12% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 45.1x | 24.4x+85% | 29.0x+56% | 19.3x+134% |
| PEG Ratio | 21.70x | 1.66x+1208% | 1.51x+1341% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.7x | 15.2x+16% | 16.6x | 13.3x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 18.6x | 20.7x-10% | 19.2x | 16.1x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 5.4x | 3.1x+74% | 2.4x+121% | 4.0x+35% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.52% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 2.25% |
QCOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolQCOM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
QCOM generates $12.5B in free cash flow at a 28.1% margin — 29.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$44.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.26
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.44
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageQCOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risk
Trading at a trailing P/E of 20.6x with a 36% discount to sector median, suggesting potential overvaluation and a -6% margin of safety.
High Risk
Market Volatility
High beta of 1.60 indicates the stock is 60% more volatile than the market, leading to larger drawdowns during corrections.
Medium
Revenue Growth Risk
Revenue growth is negative at -3.5%, posing challenges for future earnings and market positioning.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Operating in a highly competitive semiconductor sector with rapid technological advancements, Qualcomm faces risks from rivals and innovation cycles.
Lower
Sector Discount
Trading at 14x forward earnings, a 23% discount, may reflect market skepticism or sector-wide challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why QCOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI leadership
Qualcomm is transforming industries with leading-edge AI, high-performance, and low-power computing, positioning itself as a key player in intelligent computing.
Strong moat
The company has a wide moat, supported by its relentless innovation and unrivaled connectivity solutions, ensuring long-term competitive advantage.
Bullish valuation
Qualcomm's stock shows strong trailing and forward P/E ratios, with bullish price predictions pointing to significant upside potential by 2026.
Dragonfly and hyperscaler ramp
The bull thesis is bolstered by Qualcomm's Investor Day revelations, which provided concrete numbers for Dragonfly and hyperscaler custom silicon growth.
Industry transformation
Qualcomm's technology is helping tackle global challenges by delivering intelligent computing everywhere, driving adoption across multiple industries.
Innovation-driven growth
The company's focus on high-performance, low-power computing and connectivity solutions ensures continuous innovation and market leadership.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
QCOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$226.11
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$121.99
+85.4% from the low
52-Week High
$259.92
-13.0% from the high
1 Month
+11.03%
3 Month
+73.36%
YTD
+30.7%
1 Year
+47.2%
3Y CAGR
+23.6%
5Y CAGR
+11.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
QCOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.1x
vs 35.5x median
-41% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.6%
vs +2.7% median
+70% above peer median
Net Margin
22.3%
vs 9.2% median
+142% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $238.3B | 21.1x | +4.6% | 22.3% | Hold | -15.5% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $1.96T | 35.5x | +19.9% | 42.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $271.7B | 76.8x | +26.3% | 29.0% | Buy | -22.3% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $10.9B | 14.5x | +0.2% | 8.9% | Buy | -0.2% |
QRV QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | $9.1B | 15.1x | +2.2% | 9.2% | Hold | -9.7% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
QCOM Dividend and Capital Return
QCOM returns capital mainly through $8.8B/year in buybacks (3.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.52% dividend — combining for 5.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 23 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
Payout Ratio
68.7%
How QCOM Splits Its Return
Div 1.52%
Buyback 3.7%
Dividend 1.52%Buybacks 3.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.44
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.5%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
39M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.81 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.52 | +5.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% |
| 2024 | $3.35 | +6.3% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| 2023 | $3.15 | +5.0% | 2.4% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $3.00 | +11.5% | 2.4% | 4.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsQCOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 69 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $191, implying -15.5% from the current price of $226. The bear case scenario is $288 and the bull case is $603.
02What is the QCOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for QCOM is $191 based on 69 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+32.7% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (-46.9%). The base case model target is $457.
03Is QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
QCOM trades at 21.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for QCOM in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risk — Trading at a trailing P/E of 20. (2) Market Volatility — High beta of 1. (3) Revenue Growth Risk — Revenue growth is negative at -3. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is QUALCOMM Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates QCOM will report consensus revenue of $46.6B (+4.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.58 (+14.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $47.4B in revenue.
06When does QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) report its next earnings?
QUALCOMM Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $2.23 and revenue of $9.7B. Over recent quarters, QCOM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does QUALCOMM Incorporated generate?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) generated $12.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.1%. QCOM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($8.8B TTM).