Upside case
Bull case
$44-56.2%
The bull case prices MCHP at 28x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
32 bullish · 0 bearish · 46 covering MCHP
Strong Buy
2
Buy
30
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$108
+8.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$21 – $44
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
63.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $54.0B
MCHP price targets
Three scenarios for where MCHP stock could go
Current
~$100
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $100
Bear
$21
Base
$33
Bull
$44
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$33-66.8%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$21-79.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 50x multiple contraction could push MCHP down roughly 79% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Microchip Technology Incorporated
MCHP · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsMarch year-end
Microchip Technology is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures microcontrollers, analog chips, and other embedded control solutions for industrial, automotive, and consumer applications. It generates revenue primarily through microcontroller sales (~50% of revenue) and analog/power management chips (~30%), with the remainder from memory, FPGA, and development tools. The company's moat lies in its extensive catalog of over 100,000 products and deep customer relationships in mission-critical embedded systems where reliability and long-term availability are paramount.
Market Cap
$54.0B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
-$97M
Net Margin
-2.2%
MCHP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.27/$0.24
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.33
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.43
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.51
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.27/$0.24 | +13.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.33 | +5.9% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.43 | +2.7% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.51 | +12.9% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+2.7% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+14.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.88
+598.2% YoY
FY2
$1.84
+108.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$820M
FCF Margin: 18.8%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.66
Expected Revenue
$1.5B
MCHP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MCHP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Semiconductor Products Member
97.0%
-43.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Semiconductor Products Member is the largest disclosed segment at 97.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 43.3% YoY.
MCHP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $45 — implies -55.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
55.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MCHP
-9999.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
40998% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MCHP
-9999.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
34570% discount
vs MCHP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-9999.0x
vs
5Y Average
49.8x
20186% discount
Forward PE
63.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+238%
Technology
22.3x
+186%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-9999.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-40998%
Technology
29.0x
-34570%
5Y Avg
49.8x
-20186%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
56.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+270%
Technology
16.6x
+239%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+185%
Price/FCF
69.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+238%
Technology
19.2x
+264%
5Y Avg
21.5x
+225%
Price/Sales
12.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+297%
Technology
2.4x
+403%
5Y Avg
6.4x
+93%
Dividend Yield
1.82%
S&P 500
1.91%
-5%
Technology
1.11%
+65%
5Y Avg
1.84%
-1%
| Metric | MCHP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MCHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 63.6x | 18.8x+238% | 22.3x+186% | — |
| Trailing PE | -9999.0x | 24.4x-40998% | 29.0x-34570% | 49.8x-20186% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.3x | 15.2x+270% | 16.6x+239% | 19.7x+185% |
| Price/FCF | 69.9x | 20.7x+238% | 19.2x+264% | 21.5x+225% |
| Price/Sales | 12.3x | 3.1x+297% | 2.4x+403% | 6.4x+93% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.82% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.84% |
MCHP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMCHP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MCHP generates $820M in free cash flow at a 18.8% margin — returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$820M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$772M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-1.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$97M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
541M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMCHP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation concerns
The stock is considered overvalued, contributing to bearish sentiment.
High Risk
High debt load
Microchip Technology carries a significant debt burden, raising financial risk.
Medium
Demand uncertainty
Uncertainty around demand recovery in key markets is a bearish driver.
Medium
Inventory cycle risk
Industrial MCU inventory cycles could negatively impact near-term performance.
Lower
Hedge fund interest decline
Reduced hedge fund holdings signal weakening institutional confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MCHP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Leadership in microcontrollers
Microchip Technology is a leading provider of microcontroller solutions, which are essential components in various embedded systems and applications.
Fab-lite business model
The company's fab-lite model allows for cost efficiency and flexibility in semiconductor manufacturing, contributing to strong free cash flow.
Strong free cash flow
Microchip generates robust free cash flow, supporting its financial stability and potential for shareholder returns.
High-growth market exposure
The company is well-positioned in high-growth markets such as IoT, data centers, automotive, aerospace, and industrial applications.
Diverse product portfolio
Microchip offers a wide range of products including microcontrollers, analog solutions, and Flash-IP, catering to diverse industry needs.
Outstanding technical support
The company provides exceptional technical support and engineering expertise, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty.
Real-time inventory availability
Microchip offers real-time inventory visibility and cost management, aiding customers in efficient embedded design processes.
Innovative connectivity solutions
The company's CoreTSN IP and FPGA solutions enable flexible, future-proof connectivity for multi-vendor TSN networks, streamlining real-time applications.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MCHP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$99.77
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$48.52
+105.6% from the low
52-Week High
$105.91
-5.8% from the high
1 Month
+7.56%
3 Month
+54.18%
YTD
+53.4%
1 Year
+46.7%
3Y CAGR
+5.7%
5Y CAGR
+6.5%
10Y CAGR
+14.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MCHP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
63.6x
vs 35.4x median
+80% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.7%
vs +6.8% median
-60% below peer median
Net Margin
-2.2%
vs 21.0% median
-111% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $211.6B | 35.4x | +12.7% | 26.0% | Buy | +2.3% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $79.1B | 21.3x | +6.8% | 21.0% | Buy | -22.6% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $47.7B | 39.4x | +2.8% | 9.5% | Buy | -22.5% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $10.9B | 14.5x | +0.2% | 8.9% | Buy | -0.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MCHP Dividend and Capital Return
MCHP returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.82% dividend, raised 24 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
1.82%
Payout Ratio
—
How MCHP Splits Its Return
Div 1.82%
Dividend 1.82%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
24Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.3%
5Y Div CAGR
19.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$97M
Estimated Shares Retired
967.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
541M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.82 | +0.5% | 0.4% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $1.81 | +13.9% | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | $1.59 | +37.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $1.16 | +35.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMCHP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $108, implying +8.1% from the current price of $100. The bear case scenario is $21 and the bull case is $44.
02What is the MCHP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MCHP is $108 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $135 (+35.3% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (-14.8%). The base case model target is $33.
03Is Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) stock overvalued in 2026?
MCHP trades at 63.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MCHP in 2026 are: (1) Valuation concerns — The stock is considered overvalued, contributing to bearish sentiment. (2) High debt load — Microchip Technology carries a significant debt burden, raising financial risk. (3) Demand uncertainty — Uncertainty around demand recovery in key markets is a bearish driver. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Microchip Technology Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MCHP will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+2.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.88 (+598.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) report its next earnings?
Microchip Technology Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.66 and revenue of $1.5B. Over recent quarters, MCHP has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Microchip Technology Incorporated generate?
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) generated $820M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.8%. MCHP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($97M TTM).