Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MCHP more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
32 bullish · 0 bearish · 46 covering MCHP
Strong Buy
2
Buy
30
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$87
-15.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
65.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $55.7B
MCHP price targets
Three scenarios for where MCHP stock could go
Current
~$103
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Microchip Technology Incorporated
MCHP · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsMarch year-end
Microchip Technology is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures microcontrollers, analog chips, and other embedded control solutions for industrial, automotive, and consumer applications. It generates revenue primarily through microcontroller sales (~50% of revenue) and analog/power management chips (~30%), with the remainder from memory, FPGA, and development tools. The company's moat lies in its extensive catalog of over 100,000 products and deep customer relationships in mission-critical embedded systems where reliability and long-term availability are paramount.
Market Cap
$55.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
-$97M
Net Margin
-2.2%
MCHP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.10
Revenue
$971M/$963M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.27/$0.24
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.33
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.43
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.11/$0.10 | +5.1% | $971M/$963M | +0.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.27/$0.24 | +13.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.33 | +5.9% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.43 | +2.7% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.0B
-8.5% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
-4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.88
+595.0% YoY
FY2
$1.25
+42.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$820M
FCF Margin: 18.8%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.50
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
MCHP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MCHP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Semiconductor Products Member
97.0%
-43.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Semiconductor Products Member is the largest disclosed segment at 97.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 43.3% YoY.
MCHP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $53 — implies -43.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
43.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MCHP
-9999.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
39733% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MCHP
-9999.0x
vs
Technology
27.5x
36490% discount
vs MCHP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-9999.0x
vs
5Y Average
49.8x
20186% discount
Forward PE
65.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+245%
Technology
21.7x
+203%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-9999.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-39733%
Technology
27.5x
-36490%
5Y Avg
49.8x
-20186%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
57.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+280%
Technology
17.4x
+233%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+194%
Price/FCF
72.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+238%
Technology
19.8x
+265%
5Y Avg
21.5x
+235%
Price/Sales
12.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+304%
Technology
2.4x
+424%
5Y Avg
6.4x
+99%
Dividend Yield
1.76%
S&P 500
1.88%
-6%
Technology
1.18%
+50%
5Y Avg
1.84%
-4%
| Metric | MCHP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MCHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 65.7x | 19.1x+245% | 21.7x+203% | — |
| Trailing PE | -9999.0x | 25.2x-39733% | 27.5x-36490% | 49.8x-20186% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.9x | 15.3x+280% | 17.4x+233% | 19.7x+194% |
| Price/FCF | 72.2x | 21.3x+238% | 19.8x+265% | 21.5x+235% |
| Price/Sales | 12.7x | 3.1x+304% | 2.4x+424% | 6.4x+99% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.76% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.84% |
MCHP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMCHP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MCHP generates $820M in free cash flow at a 18.8% margin — returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$820M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$772M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-1.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$97M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
541M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMCHP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Profitability & Financial Health
Microchip has reported declining revenue and profitability, with a weak net margin and ROIC. The company’s Piotroski score is very low, indicating financial distress. Despite some gross margin improvement, prior oversupply and restructuring continue to pressure earnings.
High Risk
International Trade & China Exposure
A significant portion of revenue comes from China, exposing Microchip to trade dynamics and tariff risks. Weakness in the Chinese market has already impacted sales volumes, and the company also purchases raw materials from China, subject to imposed tariff rates. Domestic insourcing could further erode sales tied to Chinese consumption.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Risks
Microchip operates under numerous regulations; changes or stricter customer demands could raise costs or reduce revenue opportunities. There is also a risk of inventory write-offs if products become unsaleable due to regulatory changes, and government project sales face monetary, regulatory, and trade uncertainties.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
A recent cyber incident disrupted Microchip’s IT systems, impairing order fulfillment and reducing manufacturing facility capacity. The full scope and impact are still under investigation, posing a risk to operational continuity and customer delivery.
Medium
Inventory Management
Microchip’s inventory days stand at 201, indicating a substantial amount of inventory on its balance sheet. Elevated inventory levels limit operating leverage and increase the risk of further inventory-related charges as demand signals improve.
Medium
Valuation
The stock trades at a higher price-to-sales multiple than the semiconductor industry average, suggesting the market may already be pricing in a full recovery. This valuation stretch could cap upside potential if earnings fail to meet expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MCHP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Broad Market Recovery & AI Edge Growth
Microchip stands to benefit from a recovery across industrial, automotive, data center, and defense sectors, with AI and edge computing driving demand for its microcontrollers, analog, and FPGA products. Recent launches such as the SAM9X75D5M hybrid MCU SiP for automotive HMI and BZPACK mSiC power modules for industrial and renewable power systems strengthen its foothold in these key markets.
Robust Free Cash Flow & Margin Strength
The company averages $2 billion in free cash flow annually and boasts a high non‑GAAP gross margin of 60.5%. With a 3.2% dividend yield and a solid current ratio of 2.16, Microchip demonstrates strong operational efficiency and financial health.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Portfolio Expansion
Acquisitions of SST, Micrel, and Microsemi have broadened Microchip’s capabilities, adding 8‑bit, 16‑bit, and 32‑bit MCUs to its core lineup. The company is also expanding into AI‑accelerated edge computing and secure connectivity, positioning it for future IoT and smart device growth.
Margin Improvement Through Operational Efficiency
Microchip aims to lift non‑GAAP gross margins to 65% by reducing inventory write‑offs and improving factory utilization. This margin upside is expected to enhance profitability and shareholder returns.
Domestic Manufacturing & Vertical Integration
Strong domestic manufacturing and vertical integration provide a buffer against geopolitical and supply‑chain disruptions that could impact competitors, ensuring supply stability and cost control.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MCHP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$102.97
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$46.68
+120.6% from the low
52-Week High
$103.17
-0.2% from the high
1 Month
+53.18%
3 Month
+35.47%
YTD
+58.3%
1 Year
+118.0%
3Y CAGR
+11.5%
5Y CAGR
+7.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MCHP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
65.7x
vs 36.1x median
+82% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-8.5%
vs +5.6% median
-253% below peer median
Net Margin
-2.2%
vs 21.0% median
-111% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $55.7B | 65.7x | -8.5% | -2.2% | Buy | -15.5% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $263.5B | 38.3x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -12.3% |
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $202.9B | 36.4x | +16.0% | 23.0% | Buy | -9.9% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $76.7B | 20.7x | +5.6% | 21.0% | Buy | -20.1% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $41.5B | 36.1x | -1.1% | 9.5% | Buy | -41.0% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $9.8B | 13.8x | -4.8% | 8.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MCHP Dividend and Capital Return
MCHP returns 1.9% total yield, led by a 1.76% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
1.76%
Payout Ratio
—
How MCHP Splits Its Return
Div 1.76%
Dividend 1.76%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.3%
5Y Div CAGR
19.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$97M
Estimated Shares Retired
937.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
541M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.82 | +0.5% | 0.4% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $1.81 | +13.9% | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | $1.59 | +37.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $1.16 | +35.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMCHP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $87, implying -15.5% from the current price of $103.
02What is the MCHP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MCHP is $87 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (-2.9% from today), and the low-end target is $69 (-33.0%).
03Is Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) stock overvalued in 2026?
MCHP trades at 65.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MCHP in 2026 are: (1) Profitability & Financial Health — Microchip has reported declining revenue and profitability, with a weak net margin and ROIC. (2) International Trade & China Exposure — A significant portion of revenue comes from China, exposing Microchip to trade dynamics and tariff risks. (3) Legal & Regulatory Risks — Microchip operates under numerous regulations; changes or stricter customer demands could raise costs or reduce revenue opportunities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Microchip Technology Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MCHP will report consensus revenue of $4.0B (-8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.88 (+595.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) report its next earnings?
Microchip Technology Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, MCHP has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Microchip Technology Incorporated generate?
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) generated $820M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.8%. MCHP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($97M TTM).