Upside case
Bull case
$149+27.6%
FRT would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 40x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 covering FRT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
-4.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$80 – $149
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.1B
FRT price targets
Three scenarios for where FRT stock could go
Current
~$117
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $117
Bear
$80
Base
$111
Bull
$149
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$111-5.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing FRT — at roughly 38x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$80-31.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 13x multiple contraction could push FRT down roughly 32% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Federal Realty Investment Trust
FRT · NYSEReal EstateREIT - RetailDecember year-end
Federal Realty Investment Trust is a retail-focused real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and redevelops high-quality shopping centers and mixed-use properties in affluent coastal markets. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from retail tenants—with additional income from residential units and parking—while its development expertise creates value through property repositioning. The company's competitive advantage lies in its prime, supply-constrained locations in high-barrier-to-entry markets and its multi-decade track record of creating successful mixed-use destinations.
Market Cap
$10.1B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$411M
Net Margin
32.1%
FRT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+26.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.73
Revenue
$312M/$315M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.77/$1.76
Revenue
$323M/$328M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.84/$0.74
Revenue
$328M/$329M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.82/$0.73
Revenue
$333M/$332M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.91/$1.73 | +10.4% | $312M/$315M | -1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.77/$1.76 | +0.6% | $323M/$328M | -1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.84/$0.74 | +149.3% | $328M/$329M | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.82/$0.73 | +149.3% | $333M/$332M | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.36
-8.8% YoY
FY2
$4.55
+4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$528M
FCF Margin: 41.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FRT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FRT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $687M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial Real Estate
89.7%
+5.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Commercial Real Estate is the largest disclosed segment at 89.7% of FY 2018 revenue, up 5.3% YoY.
FRT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $138 — implies +19.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
19.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FRT
24.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
FRT
24.4x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
In line with benchmark
vs FRT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.4x
vs
5Y Average
30.8x
21% discount
Forward PE
40.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+112%
Real Estate
26.5x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-3%
Real Estate
24.3x
+0%
5Y Avg
30.8x
-21%
PEG Ratio
1.01x
S&P 500
1.75x
-42%
Real Estate
1.22x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+19%
Real Estate
16.7x
+8%
5Y Avg
17.5x
+3%
Price/FCF
30.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+43%
Real Estate
15.7x
+94%
5Y Avg
42.6x
-28%
Price/Sales
7.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+152%
Real Estate
3.0x
+159%
5Y Avg
8.1x
-3%
Dividend Yield
3.87%
S&P 500
1.88%
+106%
Real Estate
4.67%
-17%
5Y Avg
4.04%
-4%
| Metric | FRT | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg FRT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.4x | 19.1x+112% | 26.5x+53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.4x | 25.2x | 24.3x | 30.8x-21% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.01x | 1.75x-42% | 1.22x-17% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.1x | 15.3x+19% | 16.7x | 17.5x |
| Price/FCF | 30.5x | 21.3x+43% | 15.7x+94% | 42.6x-28% |
| Price/Sales | 7.9x | 3.1x+152% | 3.0x+159% | 8.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.87% | 1.88% | 4.67% | 4.04% |
FRT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFRT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FRT pays 3.9% total shareholder yield with 42.0% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
42.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
32.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.78
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
42.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$107M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
9.3× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
3.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
94.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
86M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageFRT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
FRT faces significant financial risk from rising interest rates, which could increase interest expenses. As of September 2025, the annualized effective interest rate on debt was 4.06%, impacting new financing and redevelopment projects.
High Risk
Debt Levels
FRT's Debt-to-Equity ratio was 1.39 as of November 2025, exceeding the industry average of approximately 1.043. High debt levels can limit financial flexibility and increase borrowing costs, particularly in a rising interest rate environment.
Medium
Profit Margin Compression
Analysts project FRT's net margins to decline from 27.2% to 21.5% over the next three years, despite anticipated revenue growth. This compression could challenge FRT's reputation for earnings durability and disciplined capital management.
Medium
Economic Uncertainty
Inflation, high interest rates, and potential worsening economic conditions may increase operating and borrowing costs for FRT. These factors could also affect tenant solvency, threatening the company's financial stability and growth prospects.
Medium
Tenant Health and Market Volatility
The financial health of tenants and broader market volatility pose operational risks for FRT. Economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer spending, increased rent defaults, and vacancies, although FRT's high-quality portfolio supports strong leasing metrics.
Lower
Competitive Pressures
FRT operates in a competitive retail REIT sector, necessitating continuous adaptation to changing consumer preferences and retail trends. Failure to effectively respond to these pressures could impact FRT's market position.
Lower
Execution and Integration
FRT's growth strategy depends on successful acquisitions and redevelopment, which carry execution risks. Poor integration of new properties, especially in unfamiliar markets, could lead to lower-than-expected returns.
Lower
Regulatory Risk
As a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), FRT faces ongoing risks associated with maintaining its REIT status. Changes in regulations could impact its operational flexibility and tax obligations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FRT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Portfolio and Market Position
FRT owns and operates a portfolio of high-quality retail-based properties, primarily in major coastal markets like Washington D.C. to Boston, and in San Francisco and Los Angeles. This focus on desirable, supply-constrained markets is seen as a significant advantage, enhancing its market reach.
Dividend Growth and Stability
FRT boasts an impressive track record of 58 consecutive years of dividend increases, the longest in the REIT industry. This consistent dividend growth is a major draw for income-focused investors.
Financial Performance and Growth Outlook
The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a 6.36% increase in revenue for 2025, reaching $1.279 billion. Earnings also saw a significant increase of 40.51% in 2025, with Funds From Operations (FFO) projected to grow by approximately 5.9% for 2025.
Record Leasing Volumes and Rent Spreads
Leasing volumes and rent spreads have hit record highs, indicating strong demand for FRT's properties. Asset recycling and development are also driving future growth, positioning the company for continued success.
Favorable Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts rate FRT as a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy,' reflecting positive sentiment in the market. This endorsement from analysts suggests confidence in the company's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FRT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$116.77
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$89.99
+29.8% from the low
52-Week High
$117.23
-0.4% from the high
1 Month
+9.36%
3 Month
+10.41%
YTD
+17.9%
1 Year
+23.3%
3Y CAGR
+7.4%
5Y CAGR
+0.5%
10Y CAGR
-3.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FRT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.4x
vs 31.7x median
+27% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
vs +5.5% median
+18% above peer median
Net Margin
32.1%
vs 37.4% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FRT FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | $10.1B | 40.4x | +6.5% | 32.1% | Buy | -4.3% |
REG REG Regency Centers Corporation | $14.5B | 32.6x | +4.0% | 37.4% | Buy | +1.3% |
KIM KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | $16.1B | 30.8x | +6.1% | 28.5% | Hold | +1.9% |
AKR AKR Acadia Realty Trust | $2.9B | 79.0x | +9.2% | 37.7% | Buy | -7.5% |
SPG SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. | $66.8B | 30.9x | +5.5% | 72.5% | Hold | -4.1% |
MAC MAC The Macerich Company | $5.8B | — | +5.3% | -19.4% | Hold | -3.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FRT Dividend and Capital Return
FRT returns 4.0% total yield, led by a 3.92% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.92%
Payout Ratio
94.4%
How FRT Splits Its Return
Div 3.92%
Dividend 3.92%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.0%
5Y Div CAGR
1.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5M
Estimated Shares Retired
42.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
86M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.43 | +35.1% | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $3.28 | -24.4% | 0.1% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $4.34 | +0.9% | 0.1% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $4.30 | +0.9% | 0.1% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsFRT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying -4.3% from the current price of $117. The bear case scenario is $80 and the bull case is $149.
02What is the FRT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FRT is $112 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $127 (+8.8% from today), and the low-end target is $105 (-10.1%). The base case model target is $111.
03Is Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) stock overvalued in 2026?
FRT trades at 40.4x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FRT in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Fluctuations — FRT faces significant financial risk from rising interest rates, which could increase interest expenses. (2) Debt Levels — FRT's Debt-to-Equity ratio was 1. (3) Profit Margin Compression — Analysts project FRT's net margins to decline from 27. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Federal Realty Investment Trust's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FRT will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.36 (-8.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FRT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Federal Realty Investment Trust generate?
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) generated $528M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 41.3%. FRT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.9% yield) and share repurchases ($5M TTM).