Upside case
Bull case
$433+331.0%
RIO would need investors to value it at roughly 53x earnings — about 41x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
12 bullish · 6 bearish · 31 covering RIO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
13
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+1.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$109 – $433
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $200.6B
RIO price targets
Three scenarios for where RIO stock could go
Current
~$101
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $101
Bear
$109
Base
$175
Bull
$433
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$175+74.3%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$109+8.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push RIO down roughly 8% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rio Tinto Group
RIO · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsDecember year-end
Rio Tinto is a global mining and metals company that extracts and processes mineral resources like iron ore, aluminum, copper, and other industrial materials. It generates revenue primarily from selling mined commodities—with iron ore contributing roughly 60% of earnings, followed by aluminum (~20%) and copper (~15%)—through long-term contracts and spot market sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ownership of large-scale, low-cost, long-life assets in stable jurisdictions—particularly its tier-one iron ore operations in Western Australia's Pilbara region.
Market Cap
$200.6B
Revenue TTM
$107.9B
Net Income TTM
$21.0B
Net Margin
19.4%
RIO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2024
EPS
$3.56/$3.49
Revenue
$26.8B/$27.0B
Q1 2025
EPS
$3.51/$3.23
Revenue
$26.9B/$27.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.79/$3.12
Revenue
$27.1B/$26.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.73/$3.71
Revenue
$30.8B/$30.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $3.56/$3.49 | +2.0% | $26.8B/$27.0B | -0.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.51/$3.23 | +8.7% | $26.9B/$27.4B | -1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.79/$3.12 | -10.6% | $27.1B/$26.3B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.73/$3.71 | +0.5% | $30.8B/$30.2B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$97.8B
-9.3% YoY
FY2
$98.9B
+1.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.05
-5.9% YoY
FY2
$12.32
+2.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.7B
FCF Margin: 11.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RIO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RIO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $56.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Iron Ore
59.0%
-23.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Greater China
58.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Iron Ore is the largest disclosed segment at 59.0% of FY 2022 revenue, down 23.1% YoY.
Greater China is the largest reported region at 58.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
RIO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $120 — implies +19.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
19.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RIO
14.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
43% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
RIO
14.2x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
36% discount
vs RIO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.2x
vs
5Y Average
9.5x
+50% premium
Forward PE
12.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-36%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-43%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-36%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+50%
PEG Ratio
1.85x
S&P 500
1.72x
+8%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-34%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-9%
5Y Avg
4.9x
+104%
Price/FCF
33.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+59%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+31%
5Y Avg
12.4x
+170%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+20%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+98%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+77%
Dividend Yield
4.28%
S&P 500
1.87%
+129%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+223%
5Y Avg
8.37%
-49%
| Metric | RIO | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg RIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.3x | 19.1x-36% | 15.2x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.2x | 25.1x-43% | 22.3x-36% | 9.5x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.85x | 1.72x | 1.17x+58% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 15.2x-34% | 11.0x | 4.9x+104% |
| Price/FCF | 33.6x | 21.1x+59% | 25.6x+31% | 12.4x+170% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+20% | 1.9x+98% | 2.1x+77% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.28% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 8.37% |
RIO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRIO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RIO generates $12.7B in free cash flow at a 11.8% margin — 18.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$107.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
4.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
60.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRIO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Production & Operational Hazards
Rio Tinto’s iron ore mines face significant geotechnical risks, especially in multi‑pit operations such as Pilbara, where slope stability and tailings management failures could trigger catastrophic events. Fatigue among workers further raises the likelihood of accidents, potentially leading to costly shutdowns, environmental remediation, and reputational damage.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Compliance
Operations in jurisdictions with weak governance expose Rio Tinto to heightened legal and regulatory risks, including human rights violations and environmental non‑compliance. Recent scrutiny over accounting and reporting has already resulted in penalties and the appointment of independent consultants to overhaul impairment and disclosure policies.
Medium
Market & Sales Concentration
The company’s heavy reliance on iron ore makes it vulnerable to price volatility; weak iron ore prices have already pressured margins and prompted diversification efforts. Market dynamics and competition could further erode future returns if demand weakens.
Medium
ESG & Community Impact
Negative community reports—such as water contamination and loss of livelihoods—highlight gaps between Rio Tinto’s ESG claims and local realities. Rising societal and investor expectations around ESG could lead to reputational harm, regulatory scrutiny, and potential divestment.
Medium
Closure Obligations & Regulatory Costs
Closure obligations for assets are expected to rise as regulations evolve and stakeholder expectations increase. This could elevate long‑term liabilities and impact the company’s balance sheet and cash flow projections.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RIO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversification into Copper & Lithium
Rio Tinto is actively shifting its portfolio away from iron ore toward energy‑transition metals, targeting that copper and lithium will account for 30% of total EBITDA by 2028. The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium has significantly strengthened its lithium position, positioning the company to capture growing demand in the clean‑energy sector.
Copper Production Growth Target
The company is aiming for more than 30% growth in copper production between 2024 and 2028, with an annual production goal of one million tonnes by 2030. The Oyu Tolgoi underground expansion in Mongolia is a key driver of this growth, alongside production increases from Simandou iron‑ore and lithium projects.
Operational Excellence via Automation
Rio Tinto is deploying automation and other efficiency initiatives to protect margins, having already realized significant productivity benefits. The company plans to build on these gains to further improve operational efficiency across its portfolio.
Strong Balance Sheet & Shareholder Returns
With a conservative net‑debt position, Rio Tinto enjoys strong financial flexibility. It maintains a consistent policy of returning 40‑60% of earnings to shareholders through dividends, underscoring its commitment to shareholder value.
Positive Analyst Sentiment & Buy Ratings
Several analysts hold a Buy rating on RIO, citing upside potential and noting that the shares appear undervalued. These favorable views contribute to a bullish outlook for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RIO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$100.50
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$55.64
+80.6% from the low
52-Week High
$101.53
-1.0% from the high
1 Month
+6.90%
3 Month
+10.29%
YTD
+23.4%
1 Year
+68.7%
3Y CAGR
+16.4%
5Y CAGR
+2.1%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RIO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.3x
vs 10.5x median
+17% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-9.3%
vs +5.3% median
-277% below peer median
Net Margin
19.4%
vs 10.3% median
+88% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RIO RIO Rio Tinto Group | $200.6B | 12.3x | -9.3% | 19.4% | Hold | +1.2% |
BHP BHP BHP Group Limited | $201.2B | 15.7x | -12.1% | 20.1% | Hold | -9.8% |
VAL VALE Vale S.A. | $69.5B | 8.0x | -0.4% | 7.1% | Hold | +4.5% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $82.9B | 21.3x | +5.3% | 10.3% | Buy | +16.1% |
AA AA Alcoa Corporation | $16.3B | 9.0x | +6.5% | 9.0% | Buy | +9.1% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $120.8B | 10.5x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +26.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RIO Dividend and Capital Return
RIO returns 4.3% total yield, led by a 4.28% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.28%
Payout Ratio
60.8%
How RIO Splits Its Return
Div 4.28%
Dividend 4.28%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-20.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.73 | -14.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | $4.35 | +8.4% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | $4.01 | -46.2% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $7.45 | -22.6% | 0.0% | 10.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsRIO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +1.2% from the current price of $101. The bear case scenario is $109 and the bull case is $433.
02What is the RIO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RIO is $102 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+19.4% from today), and the low-end target is $84 (-16.9%). The base case model target is $175.
03Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock overvalued in 2026?
RIO trades at 12.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RIO in 2026 are: (1) Production & Operational Hazards — Rio Tinto’s iron ore mines face significant geotechnical risks, especially in multi‑pit operations such as Pilbara, where slope stability and tailings management failures could trigger catastrophic events. (2) Legal & Regulatory Compliance — Operations in jurisdictions with weak governance expose Rio Tinto to heightened legal and regulatory risks, including human rights violations and environmental non‑compliance. (3) Market & Sales Concentration — The company’s heavy reliance on iron ore makes it vulnerable to price volatility; weak iron ore prices have already pressured margins and prompted diversification efforts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rio Tinto Group's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RIO will report consensus revenue of $97.8B (-9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.05 (-5.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $98.9B in revenue.
06When does Rio Tinto Group (RIO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RIO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Rio Tinto Group generate?
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) generated $12.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.8%. RIO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).