Upside case
Bull case
$192+91.8%
RIO would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
12 bullish · 6 bearish · 31 covering RIO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
13
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+1.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$92 – $192
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $199.8B
RIO price targets
Three scenarios for where RIO stock could go
Current
~$100
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $100
Bear
$92
Base
$146
Bull
$192
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$146+45.5%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$92-8.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push RIO down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rio Tinto Group
RIO · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsDecember year-end
Rio Tinto is a global mining and metals company that extracts and processes mineral resources like iron ore, aluminum, copper, and other industrial materials. It generates revenue primarily from selling mined commodities—with iron ore contributing roughly 60% of earnings, followed by aluminum (~20%) and copper (~15%)—through long-term contracts and spot market sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ownership of large-scale, low-cost, long-life assets in stable jurisdictions—particularly its tier-one iron ore operations in Western Australia's Pilbara region.
Market Cap
$199.8B
Revenue TTM
$107.9B
Net Income TTM
$21.0B
Net Margin
19.4%
RIO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2024
EPS
$3.56/$3.49
Revenue
$26.8B/$27.0B
Q1 2025
EPS
$3.51/$3.23
Revenue
$26.9B/$27.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.79/$3.12
Revenue
$27.1B/$26.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.73/$3.71
Revenue
$30.8B/$30.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $3.56/$3.49 | +2.0% | $26.8B/$27.0B | -0.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.51/$3.23 | +8.7% | $26.9B/$27.4B | -1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.79/$3.12 | -10.6% | $27.1B/$26.3B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.73/$3.71 | +0.5% | $30.8B/$30.2B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$103.7B
-4.0% YoY
FY2
$98.8B
-4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.02
-21.7% YoY
FY2
$9.77
-2.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.7B
FCF Margin: 11.8%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.87
Expected Revenue
$33.4B
RIO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RIO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $56.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Iron Ore
59.0%
-23.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Greater China
58.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Iron Ore is the largest disclosed segment at 59.0% of FY 2022 revenue, down 23.1% YoY.
Greater China is the largest reported region at 58.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
RIO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $180 — implies +79.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
79.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RIO
14.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
42% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
RIO
14.2x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
40% discount
vs RIO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.2x
vs
5Y Average
9.5x
+49% premium
Forward PE
11.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-38%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-42%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-40%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+49%
PEG Ratio
1.84x
S&P 500
1.66x
+11%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-34%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-9%
5Y Avg
4.9x
+103%
Price/FCF
33.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+61%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+15%
5Y Avg
12.4x
+169%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+20%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+98%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+76%
Dividend Yield
4.30%
S&P 500
1.91%
+125%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+206%
5Y Avg
8.37%
-49%
| Metric | RIO | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg RIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.7x | 18.8x-38% | 14.9x-21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.2x | 24.4x-42% | 23.6x-40% | 9.5x+49% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.84x | 1.66x+11% | 1.23x+50% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 15.2x-34% | 11.0x | 4.9x+103% |
| Price/FCF | 33.4x | 20.7x+61% | 29.0x+15% | 12.4x+169% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+20% | 1.9x+98% | 2.1x+76% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.30% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 8.37% |
RIO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRIO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RIO generates $12.7B in free cash flow at a 11.8% margin — 18.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$107.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
4.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
60.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRIO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
Weak copper prices and shifting commodity cycles could significantly impact Rio Tinto's earnings growth.
High Risk
Execution risk
Rio Tinto's growth prospects carry an unusually high degree of execution risk, particularly in projects like Simandou.
Medium
Iron ore dependency
The company's heavy reliance on iron ore exposes it to price fluctuations and demand shifts in this key commodity.
Medium
Dividend sustainability
Future dividend payouts may be at risk if earnings decline due to weaker commodity prices or operational challenges.
Lower
Net debt concerns
While not currently critical, rising net debt levels could constrain financial flexibility in a prolonged downturn.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RIO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Attractive valuation metrics
RIO's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 10.15 and 10.72 respectively suggest the stock is undervalued relative to earnings.
Strong analyst price target
Top analysts have set a bullish price target of £177.97 for RIO, indicating significant upside potential.
Market leadership position
Rio Tinto is recognized as the world's largest mining operations company, providing scale and competitive advantages.
Investor communication priority
The company emphasizes keeping investors updated with financial and business information, enhancing transparency and trust.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RIO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$100.08
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$55.64
+79.9% from the low
52-Week High
$112.58
-11.1% from the high
1 Month
-3.15%
3 Month
+14.09%
YTD
+22.9%
1 Year
+75.8%
3Y CAGR
+14.9%
5Y CAGR
+4.3%
10Y CAGR
+12.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RIO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.7x
vs 10.1x median
+16% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-4.0%
vs +5.2% median
-175% below peer median
Net Margin
19.4%
vs 10.3% median
+88% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RIO RIO Rio Tinto Group | $199.8B | 11.7x | -4.0% | 19.4% | Hold | +1.7% |
BHP BHP BHP Group Limited | $223.1B | 17.0x | -5.4% | 20.1% | Hold | -18.6% |
VAL VALE Vale S.A. | $67.3B | 7.6x | +3.3% | 7.1% | Hold | +15.4% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $98.7B | 25.4x | +7.1% | 10.3% | Buy | +4.0% |
AA AA Alcoa Corporation | $15.4B | 7.6x | +5.2% | 9.0% | Buy | +27.1% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RIO Dividend and Capital Return
RIO returns 4.3% total yield, led by a 4.30% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.30%
Payout Ratio
60.8%
How RIO Splits Its Return
Div 4.30%
Dividend 4.30%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-20.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.73 | -14.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | $4.35 | +8.4% | 0.0% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | $4.01 | -46.2% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $7.46 | -22.6% | 0.0% | 10.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsRIO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +1.7% from the current price of $100. The bear case scenario is $92 and the bull case is $192.
02What is the RIO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RIO is $102 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+19.9% from today), and the low-end target is $84 (-16.6%). The base case model target is $146.
03Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock overvalued in 2026?
RIO trades at 11.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RIO in 2026 are: (1) Commodity price volatility — Weak copper prices and shifting commodity cycles could significantly impact Rio Tinto's earnings growth. (2) Execution risk — Rio Tinto's growth prospects carry an unusually high degree of execution risk, particularly in projects like Simandou. (3) Iron ore dependency — The company's heavy reliance on iron ore exposes it to price fluctuations and demand shifts in this key commodity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rio Tinto Group's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RIO will report consensus revenue of $103.7B (-4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.02 (-21.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $98.8B in revenue.
06When does Rio Tinto Group (RIO) report its next earnings?
Rio Tinto Group is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $3.87 and revenue of $33.4B. Over recent quarters, RIO has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rio Tinto Group generate?
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) generated $12.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.8%. RIO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).