Upside case
Bull case
$76+68.0%
ROL would need investors to value it at roughly 61x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 36x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rollins, Inc. (ROL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
18
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering ROL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$61
+36.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $76
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
36.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.7B
ROL price targets
Three scenarios for where ROL stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$36
Base
$57
Bull
$76
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$57+27.5%
At 47x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-19.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push ROL down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rollins, Inc.
ROL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPersonal Products & ServicesDecember year-end
Rollins is a leading pest and wildlife control services provider operating primarily in the United States through its Orkin brand and other subsidiaries. It generates revenue from residential pest control services (roughly 60% of sales), commercial pest management for businesses, and termite protection services — all delivered through a combination of company-owned operations and franchise networks. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition, national scale that enables efficient routing and service delivery, and recurring revenue model from maintenance contracts.
Market Cap
$21.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.8B
Net Income TTM
$529M
Net Margin
13.8%
ROL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.30/$0.30
Revenue
$1000M/$989M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.33
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.26
Revenue
$913M/$927M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.24/$0.24
Revenue
$906M/$895M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.30/$0.30 | -0.9% | $1000M/$989M | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.33 | +6.7% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.26 | -5.6% | $913M/$927M | -1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.24/$0.24 | +0.0% | $906M/$895M | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+8.9% YoY
FY2
$4.5B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.21
+10.4% YoY
FY2
$1.32
+9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$621M
FCF Margin: 16.2%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.34
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
ROL beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ROL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Residential Contract Revenue
56.8%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
92.8%
+11.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Residential Contract Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 56.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 92.8%, up 11.1% YoY.
ROL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $23 — implies -49.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
49.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ROL
41.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+69% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ROL
41.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+95% premium
vs ROL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.2x
vs
5Y Average
49.7x
17% discount
Forward PE
36.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+94%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+123%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+69%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+95%
5Y Avg
49.7x
-17%
PEG Ratio
2.73x
S&P 500
1.66x
+65%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+196%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+76%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+120%
5Y Avg
32.3x
-17%
Price/FCF
33.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+61%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+114%
5Y Avg
42.6x
-22%
Price/Sales
5.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+86%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+726%
5Y Avg
7.0x
-18%
Dividend Yield
1.51%
S&P 500
1.91%
-21%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-31%
5Y Avg
1.22%
+23%
| Metric | ROL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ROL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 36.5x | 18.8x+94% | 16.3x+123% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.2x | 24.4x+69% | 21.2x+95% | 49.7x-17% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.73x | 1.66x+65% | 0.92x+196% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.8x | 15.2x+76% | 12.2x+120% | 32.3x-17% |
| Price/FCF | 33.3x | 20.7x+61% | 15.6x+114% | 42.6x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 5.8x | 3.1x+86% | 0.7x+726% | 7.0x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.51% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.22% |
ROL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolROL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ROL generates $621M in free cash flow at a 16.2% margin — 23.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$621M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$100M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.0× FCF
~2.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$217M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
62.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
482M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageROL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
The bear case price target of $50 suggests potential downside risk based on forward EPS estimates and historical P/E ratios.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Despite a strong buy rating, the stock's performance may be influenced by broader market trends and investor sentiment.
Medium
Competitive pressures
As a global pest control services provider, Rollins faces competition from other firms in the essential services sector.
High Risk
Economic sensitivity
Rollins' commercial and consumer services may be impacted by economic downturns, affecting demand for pest control and termite protection.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ROL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong valuation metrics
Rollins, Inc. has a trailing P/E of 58.91 and forward P/E of 50.25, indicating strong earnings growth expectations.
Institutional research coverage
Semper Signum provides a detailed 23-section interactive report on Rollins, Inc., covering thesis, valuation, and risks.
Bullish analyst thesis
Daniel's Deep Dive presents a bullish investment thesis on Rollins, Inc., highlighting potential upside.
Comprehensive equity research
A full equity research report for ROL includes investment thesis, valuation methods, and buy/sell recommendations.
Market price stability
Rollins, Inc.'s share price was stable at $63.03 as of January 29th, reflecting investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ROL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.96
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$44.43
+1.2% from the low
52-Week High
$66.14
-32.0% from the high
1 Month
-17.67%
3 Month
-16.60%
YTD
-23.8%
1 Year
-19.8%
3Y CAGR
+3.2%
5Y CAGR
+6.3%
10Y CAGR
+13.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ROL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
36.5x
vs 17.6x median
+107% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
vs +5.2% median
+71% above peer median
Net Margin
13.8%
vs 7.6% median
+81% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROL ROL Rollins, Inc. | $21.7B | 36.5x | +8.9% | 13.8% | Hold | +36.2% |
SCI SCI Service Corporation International | $10.1B | 17.6x | +3.6% | 14.5% | Buy | +28.1% |
ABM ABM ABM Industries Incorporated | $2.6B | 11.1x | +5.2% | 1.8% | Hold | +9.5% |
BFA BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. | $3.5B | 12.8x | +10.6% | 7.6% | Hold | +48.6% |
CTA CTAS Cintas Corporation | $68.8B | 34.9x | +7.0% | 17.6% | Hold | +41.1% |
WSO WSO Watsco, Inc. | $16.3B | 31.6x | +3.7% | 6.8% | Hold | +1.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ROL Dividend and Capital Return
ROL returns 2.5% total yield, led by a 1.51% dividend, raised 23 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.0%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
1.51%
Payout Ratio
62.3%
How ROL Splits Its Return
Div 1.51%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 1.51%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.4%
5Y Div CAGR
15.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$217M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
482M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.68 | +10.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $0.61 | +13.9% | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | $0.54 | +25.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $0.43 | +2.4% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsROL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rollins, Inc. (ROL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rollins, Inc. (ROL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $61, implying +36.2% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $76.
02What is the ROL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ROL is $61 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $70 (+55.7% from today), and the low-end target is $51 (+13.4%). The base case model target is $57.
03Is Rollins, Inc. (ROL) stock overvalued in 2026?
ROL trades at 36.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rollins, Inc. (ROL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ROL in 2026 are: (1) Economic sensitivity — Rollins' commercial and consumer services may be impacted by economic downturns, affecting demand for pest control and termite protection. (2) Valuation de-rating — The bear case price target of $50 suggests potential downside risk based on forward EPS estimates and historical P/E ratios. (3) Competitive pressures — As a global pest control services provider, Rollins faces competition from other firms in the essential services sector. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rollins, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ROL will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.21 (+10.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.5B in revenue.
06When does Rollins, Inc. (ROL) report its next earnings?
Rollins, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $0.34 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, ROL has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rollins, Inc. generate?
Rollins, Inc. (ROL) generated $621M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.2%. ROL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($217M TTM).