Upside case
Bull case
$64+123.7%
RTO would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 33x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
6
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering RTO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$29
+1.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$30 – $64
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.3B
RTO price targets
Three scenarios for where RTO stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Bear
$30
Base
$48
Bull
$64
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$48+69.8%
At 45x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$30+7.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push RTO down roughly 7% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rentokil Initial plc
RTO · NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesDecember year-end
Rentokil Initial is a global provider of route-based commercial services, primarily focused on pest control and hygiene solutions for businesses. It generates revenue through recurring service contracts — pest control accounts for roughly 60% of sales, while hygiene services contribute around 30%, with workwear and plants making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dense service network and route optimization, which creates significant economies of scale and high customer switching costs.
Market Cap
$14.3B
Revenue TTM
$11.4B
Net Income TTM
$704M
Net Margin
6.2%
RTO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
0%Mixed
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-25.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q4 2024
EPS
$0.49/$0.71
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.5B
Q1 2025
EPS
$0.27/$0.63
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.65
Revenue
$4.6B/$3.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.65/$0.70
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $0.49/$0.71 | -30.6% | $3.4B/$3.5B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.27/$0.63 | -56.4% | $3.4B/$3.5B | -2.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.65 | -22.5% | $4.6B/$3.6B | +29.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.65/$0.70 | -7.1% | $3.5B/$3.6B | -0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.8B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$12.1B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.42
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$1.48
+4.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 10.2%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.65
Expected Revenue
$3.5B
RTO beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RTO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
62.7%
-1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 62.7%, down 1.3% YoY.
RTO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $26 — implies -9.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RTO
30.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+25% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RTO
30.6x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+20% premium
vs RTO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.6x
vs
5Y Average
46.2x
34% discount
Forward PE
26.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+42%
Industrials
21.2x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+25%
Industrials
25.6x
+20%
5Y Avg
46.2x
-34%
PEG Ratio
4.40x
S&P 500
1.66x
+165%
Industrials
1.65x
+167%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-20%
Industrials
13.9x
-13%
5Y Avg
21.4x
-43%
Price/FCF
18.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-9%
Industrials
20.0x
-6%
5Y Avg
29.1x
-35%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-32%
Industrials
1.6x
+34%
5Y Avg
3.3x
-36%
Dividend Yield
2.08%
S&P 500
1.91%
+9%
Industrials
1.21%
+71%
5Y Avg
1.32%
+58%
| Metric | RTO | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RTO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.6x | 18.8x+42% | 21.2x+26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.6x | 24.4x+25% | 25.6x+20% | 46.2x-34% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.40x | 1.66x+165% | 1.65x+167% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 15.2x-20% | 13.9x-13% | 21.4x-43% |
| Price/FCF | 18.8x | 20.7x | 20.0x | 29.1x-35% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-32% | 1.6x+34% | 3.3x-36% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.08% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.32% |
RTO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRTO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RTO generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 10.2% margin — returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
13.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.39
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
64.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
503M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRTO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Uncertainty
Projected EPS of $1.39 for next fiscal year has a low confidence score of 43/100, indicating significant uncertainty in financial performance.
Medium
Bearish Analyst Outlook
Meyka AI predicts short-term and long-term price targets with a bearish outlook, suggesting potential underperformance.
Medium
Revenue and Margin Risks
Revenue trajectory and margin path are key factors in EPS projections, with potential downside risks not fully quantified.
Lower
Peer Comparison Risks
Forecasts and analyst predictions may lag behind industry peers, indicating relative underperformance concerns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RTO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Resilient international operations
Rentokil's resilient international operations provide stability and long-term growth potential, as highlighted by its stock appreciation.
Global pest control leader
Rentokil maintains its position as the global leader in pest control, a resilient industry with recurring revenues.
Recurring revenue model
The company benefits from a recurring revenue model, characteristic of the pest control industry, ensuring steady cash flows.
Terminix integration potential
Despite short-term challenges, the integration of Terminix offers long-term growth opportunities and synergies for Rentokil.
Bullish analyst coverage
Analysts highlight Rentokil's strong fundamentals and growth potential, contributing to positive stock performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RTO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$28.48
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.72
+25.4% from the low
52-Week High
$34.66
-17.8% from the high
1 Month
-11.58%
3 Month
-10.52%
YTD
-4.7%
1 Year
+22.7%
3Y CAGR
-10.9%
5Y CAGR
-3.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RTO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.6x
vs 11.9x median
+123% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +8.9% median
-60% below peer median
Net Margin
6.2%
vs 1.8% median
+252% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RTO RTO Rentokil Initial plc | $14.3B | 26.6x | +3.6% | 6.2% | Buy | +1.8% |
ROL ROL Rollins, Inc. | $21.7B | 36.5x | +8.9% | 13.8% | Hold | +36.2% |
BFA BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. | $3.5B | 12.8x | +10.6% | 7.6% | Hold | +48.6% |
ABM ABM ABM Industries Incorporated | $2.6B | 11.1x | +5.2% | 1.8% | Hold | +9.5% |
SER SERV Serve Robotics Inc. | $466M | — | +10.0% | -2640.3% | Buy | +107.4% |
CNX CNXC Concentrix Corporation | $1.8B | 2.1x | +8.4% | -13.0% | Buy | +107.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RTO Dividend and Capital Return
RTO returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 2.08% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.08%
Payout Ratio
64.7%
How RTO Splits Its Return
Div 2.08%
Dividend 2.08%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.8%
5Y Div CAGR
17.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
503M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | +3.4% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $0.58 | +33.1% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $0.44 | +1.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.43 | -17.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsRTO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $29, implying +1.8% from the current price of $28. The bear case scenario is $30 and the bull case is $64.
02What is the RTO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RTO is $29 based on 6 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+5.3% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (-1.7%). The base case model target is $48.
03Is Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) stock overvalued in 2026?
RTO trades at 26.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RTO in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Uncertainty — Projected EPS of $1. (2) Bearish Analyst Outlook — Meyka AI predicts short-term and long-term price targets with a bearish outlook, suggesting potential underperformance. (3) Revenue and Margin Risks — Revenue trajectory and margin path are key factors in EPS projections, with potential downside risks not fully quantified. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rentokil Initial plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RTO will report consensus revenue of $11.8B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.42 (+2.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.1B in revenue.
06When does Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) report its next earnings?
Rentokil Initial plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.65 and revenue of $3.5B. Over recent quarters, RTO has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rentokil Initial plc generate?
Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.2%. RTO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).