Upside case
Bull case
$2332+3093.3%
SLF would need investors to value it at roughly 402x earnings — about 389x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
15
analysts
3 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 covering SLF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$73
-0.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$84 – $2332
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $40.4B
SLF price targets
Three scenarios for where SLF stock could go
Current
~$73
Confidence
33 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $73
Bear
$84
Base
$314
Bull
$2332
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$314+330.3%
At 54x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$84+15.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push SLF down roughly 15% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sun Life Financial Inc.
SLF · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Sun Life Financial is a diversified financial services company offering insurance, wealth management, and asset management solutions globally. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums (life, health, and disability) and asset management fees from its investment products and services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition in Canada and Asia, extensive distribution networks, and integrated financial services platform that creates cross-selling opportunities.
Market Cap
$40.4B
Revenue TTM
$41.9B
Net Income TTM
$3.7B
Net Margin
8.9%
SLF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
44%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.27/$1.22
Revenue
$6.9B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.29/$1.29
Revenue
$6.2B/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.35/$1.30
Revenue
$8.9B/$945M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.35
Revenue
$820M/$974M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.27/$1.22 | +4.1% | $6.9B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $1.29/$1.29 | +0.0% | $6.2B/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $1.35/$1.30 | +3.8% | $8.9B/$945M | +841.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.41/$1.35 | +4.4% | $820M/$974M | -15.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.1B
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$62.3B
+41.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.40
+35.4% YoY
FY2
$19.48
+57.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.8B
FCF Margin: 16.2%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.35
Expected Revenue
$926M
SLF beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SLF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Health Insurance
65.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Health Insurance is the largest disclosed segment at 65.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SLF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $89 — implies +23.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
23.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SLF
16.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
36% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SLF
16.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+21% premium
vs SLF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.1x
vs
5Y Average
9.8x
+64% premium
Forward PE
12.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-34%
Financial Services
10.5x
+20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-36%
Financial Services
13.4x
+21%
5Y Avg
9.8x
+64%
PEG Ratio
1.89x
S&P 500
1.75x
+8%
Financial Services
1.03x
+84%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-17%
Financial Services
11.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+64%
Price/FCF
4.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-81%
Financial Services
10.6x
-62%
5Y Avg
6.1x
-34%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-58%
Financial Services
2.3x
-42%
5Y Avg
2.3x
-44%
Dividend Yield
3.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
+93%
Financial Services
2.68%
+35%
5Y Avg
5.31%
-32%
| Metric | SLF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SLF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.6x | 19.1x-34% | 10.5x+20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.1x | 25.2x-36% | 13.4x+21% | 9.8x+64% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.89x | 1.75x | 1.03x+84% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7x | 15.3x-17% | 11.4x+11% | 7.7x+64% |
| Price/FCF | 4.0x | 21.3x-81% | 10.6x-62% | 6.1x-34% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-58% | 2.3x-42% | 2.3x-44% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.63% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 5.31% |
SLF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSLF Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SLF posts 8.9% net margin with 14.6% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$41.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.54
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
14.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.7%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
55.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
554M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSLF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market & Economic Volatility
Sun Life’s profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in market conditions, interest rates, and economic downturns. Adverse economic conditions can reduce investment returns, lower insurance sales, and dampen demand for financial products.
High Risk
Counterparty Credit Risk
The risk that counterparties may default on obligations can erode the value of invested assets and threaten financial stability. Defaults could lead to significant write‑downs and liquidity strain.
Medium
Mortality & Morbidity Risk
Unexpected claims experience due to pandemics, catastrophes, or anti‑selection can exceed pricing assumptions, increasing liabilities and reducing profitability.
Medium
Operational & Cyber Risk
Business process failures, cyber breaches, data privacy issues, and internal control weaknesses can disrupt operations and expose the company to regulatory penalties and reputational damage.
Lower
Regulatory & Legal Risk
Changes in laws and regulations across jurisdictions can impact Sun Life’s operations and financial performance, potentially requiring costly adjustments or compliance measures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SLF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Earnings & ROE Growth
Sun Life projected core earnings growth of about 13% for both 2025 and 2026, with 12% EPS growth and an 18% return on equity approaching its 20% target. Q4 underlying net income rose 13% to $1.1 billion, driving underlying EPS up 17% to $1.96 and underlying ROE to 19.1%. Growth is evident across all major lines, with individual protection sales up 38%, group health sales up 42%, and US stop‑loss sales up 58%.
Diversified Global Business Mix
The company balances protection and wealth businesses with a global footprint, mitigating segment volatility. Canadian operations contribute about 38% of adjusted earnings, while robust US and Asia segments further diversify revenue streams.
Asset Management Expansion & CAGR Target
Sun Life’s asset management arm manages CAD 1.1 trillion in assets, with SLC Management targeting a 20% compound annual growth rate. Recent acquisitions of BGO and Crescent strengthen its alternative asset management capabilities.
Consistent Dividend Growth & Yield
The firm offers a 4.10% dividend yield and has increased its dividend for 11 consecutive years, underscoring a sustainable payout ratio and disciplined capital deployment.
Strategic Product & Market Expansion
Recent strategic moves include asset‑management acquisitions and new product launches such as the Kid Smile Complete dental plan. Management has also implemented price increases to hit target margins, showcasing adaptability in a challenging market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SLF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.02
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.22
+29.9% from the low
52-Week High
$74.16
-1.5% from the high
1 Month
+14.99%
3 Month
+11.98%
YTD
+16.2%
1 Year
+22.0%
3Y CAGR
+14.4%
5Y CAGR
+6.1%
10Y CAGR
+8.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SLF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.6x
vs 8.2x median
+54% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.4%
vs +5.6% median
-3% below peer median
Net Margin
8.9%
vs 5.9% median
+52% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SLF SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. | $40.4B | 12.6x | +5.4% | 8.9% | Hold | -0.4% |
MFC MFC Manulife Financial Corporation | $67.0B | 8.6x | +5.6% | 7.0% | Buy | +27.6% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $34.9B | 7.4x | -5.9% | 5.6% | Hold | +4.0% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $52.3B | 8.2x | +6.3% | 4.4% | Buy | +20.4% |
LNC LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $6.4B | 4.9x | +21.9% | 11.4% | Hold | +15.6% |
UNM UNM Unum Group | $13.0B | 9.2x | -1.3% | 5.9% | Hold | +22.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SLF Dividend and Capital Return
SLF returns 8.1% total yield, led by a 5.03% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
5.03%
Payout Ratio
55.1%
How SLF Splits Its Return
Div 5.03%
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 5.03%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.7%
5Y Div CAGR
6.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
23M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
554M
At 4.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.51 | +6.0% | 6.6% | 14.7% |
| 2024 | $2.37 | +7.6% | 2.5% | 8.2% |
| 2023 | $2.20 | +3.5% | 0.5% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $2.13 | +15.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsSLF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $73, implying -0.4% from the current price of $73. The bear case scenario is $84 and the bull case is $2332.
02What is the SLF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SLF is $73 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $92 (+26.0% from today), and the low-end target is $51 (-30.3%). The base case model target is $314.
03Is Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) stock overvalued in 2026?
SLF trades at 12.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SLF in 2026 are: (1) Market & Economic Volatility — Sun Life’s profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in market conditions, interest rates, and economic downturns. (2) Counterparty Credit Risk — The risk that counterparties may default on obligations can erode the value of invested assets and threaten financial stability. (3) Mortality & Morbidity Risk — Unexpected claims experience due to pandemics, catastrophes, or anti‑selection can exceed pricing assumptions, increasing liabilities and reducing profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sun Life Financial Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SLF will report consensus revenue of $44.1B (+5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.40 (+35.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $62.3B in revenue.
06When does Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) report its next earnings?
Sun Life Financial Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.35 and revenue of $926M. Over recent quarters, SLF has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sun Life Financial Inc. generate?
Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) generated $6.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.2%. SLF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.7B TTM).