SM trades 1.1% below Wall Street's consensus target of $40.82.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes SM achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 5.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 54 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, SM Energy Company (SM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $40.82, based on estimates from 54 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $40.38, this represents a potential upside of +1.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $9.68B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $16.00 to a high of $52.00, representing a 88% spread in expectations. The median target of $43.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 35 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,15 rating it Hold, and 4 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, SM trades at a trailing P/E of 7.2x and forward P/E of 5.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +92.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $59.12, with bear and bull scenarios of $37.24 and $77.89 respectively. Model confidence stands at 46/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CIVICivitas Resources, Inc. | $2.3B | $27.38 | $63.42 | +131.6% | Hold | 6.8x | 16 |
 MTDRMatador Resources Company | $7.6B | $60.88 | $69.90 | +14.8% | Buy | 7.5x | 42 |
 CRGYCrescent Energy Company | $4.7B | $14.20 | $17.88 | +25.9% | Buy | 5.9x | 14 |
 CHRDChord Energy Corporation | $8.8B | $157.05 | $178.75 | +13.8% | Buy | 6.8x | 20 |
 MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $4.9B | $26.50 | $33.60 | +26.8% | Buy | 8.9x | 27 |
 DVNDevon Energy Corporation | $36.5B | $52.15 | $62.93 | +20.7% | Buy | 9.5x | 64 |
 FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $59.7B | $212.08 | $234.21 | +10.4% | Buy | 9.3x | 53 |
 PRPermian Resources Corporation | $21.8B | $26.02 | $27.67 | +6.3% | Buy | 11.1x | 21 |
 REIRing Energy, Inc. | $298M | $1.43 | $2.13 | +49.0% | Buy | 5.1x | 10 |
 HALHalliburton Company | $30.2B | $36.17 | $43.10 | +19.2% | Buy | 15.5x | 64 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SM stock.
The consensus price target for SM is $40.82, close to the current price of $40.38 (1.1% implied move). Based on 54 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
SM has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 54 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 35 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $40.82 implies 1.1% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 5.0477x, SM trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $40.82 implies 1.1% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $52 for SM, while the most conservative target is $16. The consensus of $40.82 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $78 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SM is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 54 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 35 have Buy ratings, 15 recommend Hold, and 4 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SM stock forecast based on 54 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $40.82, with estimates ranging from $16 (bear case) to $52 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $59, with bear/bull scenarios of $37/$78.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SM's fair value at $59 (base case), with a bear case of $37 and bull case of $78. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 46/100.
SM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 7.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
SM appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $40.82 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SM analyst price targets range from $16 to $52, a 88% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $40.82 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $37-$78 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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