Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Feb 28, 2026
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
As of February 28, 2026, SM Energy Company (SM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $28.86, based on estimates from 53 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $23.13, this represents a potential upside of +24.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.65B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $19.00 to a high of $49.00, representing a 104% spread in expectations. The median target of $28.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 30 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,18 rating it Hold, and 5 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, SM trades at a trailing P/E of 4.1x and forward P/E of 6.3x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -34.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $30.86, with bear and bull scenarios of $-661.06 and $816.92 respectively. Model confidence stands at 35/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
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Start ComparisonThe consensus Wall Street price target for SM is $28.86, representing 24.8% upside from the current price of $23.13. With 53 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
SM has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 53 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 30 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $28.86 implies 24.8% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 6.298x, SM trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $28.86 implies 24.8% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $49 for SM, while the most conservative target is $19. The consensus of $28.86 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $817 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SM is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 53 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 30 have Buy ratings, 18 recommend Hold, and 5 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SM stock forecast based on 53 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $28.86, with estimates ranging from $19 (bear case) to $49 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $31, with bear/bull scenarios of $-661/$817.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SM's fair value at $31 (base case), with a bear case of $-661 and bull case of $817. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 35/100.
SM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 4.1x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on SM, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $28.86 price target (24.8% upside). 30 of 53 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SM analyst price targets range from $19 to $49, a 104% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $28.86 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $-661-$817 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.