Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SMMT more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering SMMT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$21
+19.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.8B
SMMT price targets
Three scenarios for where SMMT stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
—
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Summit Therapeutics Inc.
SMMT · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnology
Summit Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel antibiotics to treat serious infectious diseases. It generates revenue primarily through research collaborations and licensing agreements — with its lead candidate ridinilazole in Phase III trials for C. difficile infection — while pursuing future commercialization of its pipeline. The company's competitive advantage lies in its targeted approach to antibiotic-resistant infections and its clinical-stage assets addressing significant unmet medical needs.
Market Cap
$13.8B
Revenue TTM
$0
Net Income TTM
-$1.2B
SMMT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
44%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
—No data
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-108.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.76/$-0.09
Revenue
—/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.31/$-0.18
Revenue
—/$77M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.29/$-0.10
Revenue
—/$57M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.24/$-0.27
Revenue
—/$54420
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.76/$-0.09 | -736.9% | —/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.31/$-0.18 | -76.4% | —/$77M | — |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.29/$-0.10 | -182.5% | —/$57M | — |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.24/$-0.27 | +10.9% | —/$54420 | — |
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.27
Expected Revenue
$54420
SMMT beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SMMT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $5M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
License and Service
100.0%
+158.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Latin America
100.0%
-61.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
License and Service is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, up 158.6% YoY.
Latin America is the largest reported region at 100.0%, down 61.0% YoY.
SMMT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SMMT
-12.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
149% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
SMMT
-12.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
156% discount
vs SMMT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-12.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-12.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-149%
Healthcare
22.1x
-156%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Healthcare
18.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
—
S&P 500
3.1x
—
Healthcare
2.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SMMT | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg SMMT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -12.4x | 25.2x-149% | 22.1x-156% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 18.7x | — |
| Price/Sales | — | 3.1x | 2.8x | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
SMMT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 1 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSMMT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for SMMT are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$0
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$385M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-220.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-243.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$225M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$204M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-291.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-220.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
775M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSMMT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Binary Nature of Drug Development
Summit Therapeutics is heavily reliant on the success of its lead drug candidate, ivonescimab. The company's valuation hinges on a single FDA decision, and failure to gain approval could lead to a significant drop in stock price.
High Risk
Clinical Trial Risks
The pre-specified overall survival (OS) analysis for ivonescimab did not meet statistical significance at the p=0.057 level. Given the FDA's increasing focus on survival endpoints, this presents a substantial risk to the drug's approval and the company's future.
High Risk
Financial Performance and Profitability
Summit Therapeutics has incurred significant losses since inception, with an operating margin of -7700.0% and a net profit margin of -9720.4% in Q3 2022. The company is not forecast to become profitable over the next three years, with a reported EPS of -$0.14 for Q4 2025.
Medium
Limited Diversification
As a single-asset company, Summit Therapeutics faces heightened risk due to its reliance on the performance of ivonescimab. This lack of diversification could lead to greater volatility in stock performance.
Medium
Cash Runway
Despite a substantial cash position of $225.3M as of Q4 2025, the company has less than one year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow. This raises concerns about its ability to sustain operations without additional funding.
Medium
Market Competition
There is potential for competition in the market for ivonescimab, which could limit its success and impact the company's market share. The competitive landscape may affect pricing and demand for the drug.
Lower
Volatility
The stock has experienced significant price volatility, with a daily average volatility of 10.16% over the past week. This high level of volatility indicates a risky investment environment for shareholders.
Lower
Regulatory Uncertainty
Ongoing regulatory hurdles and the need for practical rules of origin for new technologies can pose challenges beyond the FDA decision. This uncertainty may affect the company's strategic planning and operational execution.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SMMT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Promising Drug Candidate
Ivonescimab, a dual-action therapy combining anti-PD-1 and anti-VEGF mechanisms, is seen as a potential competitor to existing treatments like Keytruda. Its Phase III clinical trials have shown promising efficacy, particularly in progression-free survival (PFS).
Significant Insider Buying
There has been substantial investment from insiders, including the CEO, who has personally invested hundreds of millions of dollars. This level of insider commitment is viewed as a strong indicator of confidence in the company's prospects.
FDA Approval Potential
The company has received acceptance for its Biologics License Application (BLA) from the FDA, with a PDUFA date set for November 14, 2026. Approval could lead to a significant short squeeze, as a large portion of the stock is currently shorted.
Market Opportunity
The global lung cancer market is substantial, with forecasts predicting significant growth in the coming years. Capturing even a small market share could lead to substantial revenue and valuation increases for Summit Therapeutics.
Strong Financial Position
Despite current losses due to research and development, Summit Therapeutics maintains robust liquidity with substantial cash reserves, estimated at $713 million as of Q4 2025, to fund ongoing operations.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The majority of analysts covering SMMT have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, with some believing the stock is undervalued.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SMMT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$17.85
52W Range Position
23%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$13.83
+29.1% from the low
52-Week High
$30.98
-42.4% from the high
1 Month
-4.49%
3 Month
+19.08%
YTD
+1.9%
1 Year
-26.2%
3Y CAGR
+109.5%
5Y CAGR
+24.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SMMT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 38.3x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
—
vs +0.1% median
Peer median unavailable
Net Margin
—
vs -162.9% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMM SMMT Summit Therapeutics Inc. | $13.8B | — | — | — | Buy | +19.5% |
KYM KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | $7.0B | — | -16.7% | -612.2% | Buy | +35.7% |
RVM RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | $32.1B | — | — | — | Buy | +2.5% |
TNG TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. | $3.2B | — | +0.1% | -162.9% | Buy | -3.7% |
NUV NUVL Nuvalent, Inc. | $6.9B | — | — | — | Buy | +38.5% |
KRY KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $8.5B | 38.3x | +31.5% | 53.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
6 questionsSMMT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $21, implying +19.5% from the current price of $18.
02What is the SMMT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SMMT is $21 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+68.1% from today), and the low-end target is $16 (-10.4%).
03Is Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for SMMT is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SMMT in 2026 are: (1) Binary Nature of Drug Development — Summit Therapeutics is heavily reliant on the success of its lead drug candidate, ivonescimab. (2) Clinical Trial Risks — The pre-specified overall survival (OS) analysis for ivonescimab did not meet statistical significance at the p=0. (3) Financial Performance and Profitability — Summit Therapeutics has incurred significant losses since inception, with an operating margin of -7700. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05When does Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) report its next earnings?
Summit Therapeutics Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.27 and revenue of $54420. Over recent quarters, SMMT has beaten EPS estimates 44% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Summit Therapeutics Inc. generate?
Summit Therapeutics Inc. (SMMT) had a free cash outflow of $385M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SMMT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).