Upside case
Bull case
$606-72.3%
The bull case prices SNDK at 9x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 15 covering SNDK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1575
-27.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$290 – $606
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
33.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $322.5B
SNDK price targets
Three scenarios for where SNDK stock could go
Current
~$2185
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $2185
Bear
$290
Base
$460
Bull
$606
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$460-79.0%
At 7x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$290-86.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 29x multiple contraction could push SNDK down roughly 87% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sandisk Corporation
SNDK · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsJune year-end
SanDisk is a leading manufacturer of flash memory storage solutions built on NAND flash technology. It generates revenue primarily through sales of solid-state drives (~40%), embedded products for mobile devices (~30%), and removable storage cards (~20%). The company's competitive advantage stems from its deep expertise in NAND flash technology and strong intellectual property portfolio—including over 5,000 patents—which creates significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$322.5B
Revenue TTM
$13.6B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
34.2%
SNDK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+106.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.05
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.80/—
Revenue
$1.9B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.20/$3.62
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$23.41/$14.62
Revenue
$6.0B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.29/$0.05 | +522.2% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.80/— | — | $1.9B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $6.20/$3.62 | +71.3% | $3.0B/$2.7B | +12.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.41/$14.62 | +60.1% | $6.0B/$4.7B | +26.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.1B
+11.2% YoY
FY2
$16.6B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.21
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$25.54
-15.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.8B
FCF Margin: 35.7%
Next Earnings
August 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$33.58
Expected Revenue
$8.2B
SNDK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SNDK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Client Devices
56.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
27.7%
+0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Client Devices is the largest disclosed segment at 56.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 27.7%, up 0.7% YoY.
SNDK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $4162 — implies +90.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
90.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SNDK
-193.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
889% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SNDK
-193.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
765% discount
vs SNDK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-193.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
33.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+77%
Technology
22.3x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-193.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-889%
Technology
29.0x
-765%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
43.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1318%
Technology
2.4x
+1698%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+4617%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SNDK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SNDK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 33.4x | 18.8x+77% | 22.3x+50% | — |
| Trailing PE | -193.0x | 24.4x-889% | 29.0x-765% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 43.8x | 3.1x+1318% | 2.4x+1698% | 0.9x+4617% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
SNDK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSNDK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SNDK generates $4.8B in free cash flow at a 35.7% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+89.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
40.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
34.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.57
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
35.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-10.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
33.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$561M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
43.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-10.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
148M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSNDK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
NAND pricing volatility
A significant drop in NAND pricing could lead to a 42% decline in stock value, as highlighted in the bear case target.
High Risk
Reliance on Kioxia
The company's dependence on Kioxia Flash introduces supply chain and partnership risks.
Medium
Valuation downside risk
Even bullish scenarios may not sufficiently offset potential downside risks, with bear cases projecting declines of 40-55%.
Lower
Market competition
Operating in the competitive NAND flash technology space exposes Sandisk to pricing and innovation pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SNDK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Automotive-grade product alignment
Sandisk’s automotive-grade products are developed in alignment with key industry standards and quality frameworks, ensuring reliability and market competitiveness.
Bullish investment thesis
A bullish thesis highlights Sandisk's potential, with analysts summarizing positive outlooks and growth drivers for the company.
Strong stock performance
Sandisk's stock has surged 246% in 2026, reflecting strong investor confidence and market momentum.
NAND flash technology leadership
Sandisk specializes in NAND flash technology, positioning it as a key player in the data storage and semiconductor industry.
Global market presence
Sandisk operates across multiple regions, including the United States, Europe, and Asia, broadening its revenue streams and market reach.
Supercycle potential
The bull case for Sandisk includes a potential supercycle in demand, which could drive the stock price to $950 by 2026.
Semiconductor demand surge
A broader surge in semiconductor and hardware demand supports Sandisk's growth prospects and valuation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SNDK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$2184.75
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$40.10
+5348.3% from the low
52-Week High
$2191.69
-0.3% from the high
1 Month
+63.96%
3 Month
+189.87%
YTD
+693.8%
1 Year
+4586.3%
3Y CAGR
+293.0%
5Y CAGR
+127.3%
10Y CAGR
+50.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SNDK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
33.4x
vs 36.8x median
-9% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.2%
vs +9.2% median
+22% above peer median
Net Margin
34.2%
vs 21.6% median
+58% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SND SNDK Sandisk Corporation | $322.5B | 33.4x | +11.2% | 34.2% | Buy | -27.9% |
MU MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $1.28T | 18.4x | +32.3% | 41.5% | Buy | -3.7% |
WDC WDC Western Digital Corporation | $253.0B | 74.7x | +9.1% | 55.1% | Buy | -35.8% |
STX STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $233.4B | 71.8x | +9.2% | 21.6% | Buy | -29.5% |
IOS IOSP Innospec Inc. | $2.0B | 17.1x | +1.4% | 6.4% | Hold | +39.0% |
SIM SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation | $2.7B | 36.8x | +16.4% | 13.8% | Buy | -21.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsSNDK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1575, implying -27.9% from the current price of $2185. The bear case scenario is $290 and the bull case is $606.
02What is the SNDK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SNDK is $1575 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2900 (+32.7% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (-79.4%). The base case model target is $460.
03Is Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) stock overvalued in 2026?
SNDK trades at 33.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SNDK in 2026 are: (1) NAND pricing volatility — A significant drop in NAND pricing could lead to a 42% decline in stock value, as highlighted in the bear case target. (2) Reliance on Kioxia — The company's dependence on Kioxia Flash introduces supply chain and partnership risks. (3) Valuation downside risk — Even bullish scenarios may not sufficiently offset potential downside risks, with bear cases projecting declines of 40-55%. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sandisk Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SNDK will report consensus revenue of $15.1B (+11.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.21 (+2.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.6B in revenue.
06When does Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) report its next earnings?
Sandisk Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-13. Consensus expects EPS of $33.58 and revenue of $8.2B. Over recent quarters, SNDK has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sandisk Corporation generate?
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) generated $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.7%. SNDK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).