Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SNDK more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 15 covering SNDK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1194
-15.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $208.1B
SNDK price targets
Three scenarios for where SNDK stock could go
Current
~$1410
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sandisk Corporation
SNDK · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsJune year-end
SanDisk is a leading manufacturer of flash memory storage solutions built on NAND flash technology. It generates revenue primarily through sales of solid-state drives (~40%), embedded products for mobile devices (~30%), and removable storage cards (~20%). The company's competitive advantage stems from its deep expertise in NAND flash technology and strong intellectual property portfolio—including over 5,000 patents—which creates significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$208.1B
Revenue TTM
$13.6B
Net Income TTM
$4.6B
Net Margin
34.2%
SNDK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+112.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.05
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.22/$0.88
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.20/$3.62
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$23.41/$14.62
Revenue
$6.0B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.29/$0.05 | +522.2% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.22/$0.88 | +38.2% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +7.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.20/$3.62 | +71.3% | $3.0B/$2.7B | +12.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.41/$14.62 | +60.1% | $6.0B/$4.7B | +26.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.8B
+1.5% YoY
FY2
$16.9B
+22.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.98
-29.0% YoY
FY2
$31.39
+49.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.8B
FCF Margin: 35.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SNDK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SNDK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Client Devices
56.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
27.7%
+0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Client Devices is the largest disclosed segment at 56.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 27.7%, up 0.7% YoY.
SNDK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1636 — implies +37.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
37.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SNDK
-124.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
594% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SNDK
-124.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
553% discount
vs SNDK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-124.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
30.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+62%
Technology
21.7x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-124.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-594%
Technology
27.5x
-553%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Technology
19.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
28.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+803%
Technology
2.4x
+1072%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+2944%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SNDK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SNDK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.9x | 19.1x+62% | 21.7x+42% | — |
| Trailing PE | -124.6x | 25.2x-594% | 27.5x-553% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 19.8x | — |
| Price/Sales | 28.3x | 3.1x+803% | 2.4x+1072% | 0.9x+2944% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
SNDK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSNDK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SNDK generates $4.8B in free cash flow at a 35.7% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+89.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
40.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
34.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.57
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
35.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-10.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
33.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$561M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
43.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-10.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
148M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSNDK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Technological Execution Challenges
SanDisk’s shift to 50TB and 100TB hard drives hinges on flawless HAMR (Heat‑Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology. Yield delays or production setbacks could let competitors capture market share, while new software compression like TurboQuant may reduce the perceived need for physical storage.
High Risk
Market Competition & Pricing Pressure
The storage market is intensely competitive; rivals’ innovations and NAND price cycles can erode average selling prices (ASPs). Concentration risk from a few hyperscale cloud customers means any shift toward in‑house hardware could materially cut revenue.
Medium
Resource Volatility (Helium)
High‑capacity HDDs require helium, and supply chain instability in the Middle East and Russia has already driven price spikes. Rising helium costs compress SanDisk’s profit margins on its largest‑capacity products.
Medium
Geopolitical & Regulatory Exposure
Final assembly and testing occur in Southeast Asia with significant exposure to China’s regulatory environment. Trade restrictions and new data‑residency laws in Europe and India add operational complexity and potential cost increases.
Lower
Insider Selling & Volatility
Insider activity shows a negative power ratio, indicating more selling than buying, and the stock exhibits high daily fluctuations, classifying it as a very high‑risk investment for value investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SNDK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Driven Storage Demand Surge
The proliferation of AI models and data‑center workloads is creating a structural demand for fast, high‑capacity storage. SanDisk is well‑positioned to benefit as AI applications require extensive storage capabilities that are expected to compound at a faster rate.
NAND Price Momentum Outpaces Forecast
NAND memory prices have been rising faster than anticipated, with signs of continued strength. This trend is prompting analysts to reassess the longevity and strength of the current upcycle, leading to upward revisions in earnings estimates.
Product Innovation & Capacity Discipline
SanDisk is benefiting from increased capacity management and planning by data centers, along with its own product innovations like BiCS8 and Stargate. These factors, combined with expanding relationships with hyperscalers, underpin a constructive outlook.
Robust Q2 Revenue Growth
SanDisk’s Q2 revenue rose 31% quarter‑over‑quarter, and Q3 revenue forecasts indicate continued strength. Bernstein expects FY27 earnings per share of $144 in its base case, with a bull‑case estimate of $224.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SNDK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1409.98
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.13
+4155.9% from the low
52-Week High
$1439.70
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+94.58%
3 Month
+135.80%
YTD
+412.3%
1 Year
+4067.8%
3Y CAGR
+239.6%
5Y CAGR
+108.2%
10Y CAGR
+44.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SNDK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.9x
vs 30.1x median
+2% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.5%
vs +13.7% median
-89% below peer median
Net Margin
34.2%
vs 21.6% median
+58% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SND SNDK Sandisk Corporation | $208.1B | 30.9x | +1.5% | 34.2% | Buy | -15.3% |
MU MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $752.2B | 11.7x | +60.3% | 41.5% | Buy | -31.6% |
WDC WDC Western Digital Corporation | $163.8B | 53.6x | +12.9% | 55.1% | Buy | -15.6% |
STX STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $171.5B | 53.3x | +13.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -20.7% |
IOS IOSP Innospec Inc. | $1.9B | 15.7x | -0.2% | 6.6% | Hold | +48.1% |
SIM SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation | $2.1B | 30.1x | +22.9% | 13.8% | Buy | +2.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsSNDK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1194, implying -15.3% from the current price of $1410.
02What is the SNDK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SNDK is $1194 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2000 (+41.8% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (-68.1%).
03Is Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) stock overvalued in 2026?
SNDK trades at 30.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SNDK in 2026 are: (1) Technological Execution Challenges — SanDisk’s shift to 50TB and 100TB hard drives hinges on flawless HAMR (Heat‑Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology. (2) Market Competition & Pricing Pressure — The storage market is intensely competitive; rivals’ innovations and NAND price cycles can erode average selling prices (ASPs). (3) Resource Volatility (Helium) — High‑capacity HDDs require helium, and supply chain instability in the Middle East and Russia has already driven price spikes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sandisk Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SNDK will report consensus revenue of $13.8B (+1.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.98 (-29.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.9B in revenue.
06When does Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SNDK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Sandisk Corporation generate?
Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) generated $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.7%. SNDK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).