Upside case
Bull case
$1276+174.3%
WDC would need investors to value it at roughly 142x earnings — about 90x more generous than today's 52x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
61
analysts
44 bullish · 1 bearish · 61 covering WDC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
44
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$408
-12.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1276
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
61
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
51.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $157.7B
WDC price targets
Three scenarios for where WDC stock could go
Current
~$465
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $465
Base
$1524
Bull
$1276
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1524+227.6%
At 169x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Western Digital Corporation
WDC · NASDAQTechnologyComputer HardwareJune year-end
Western Digital is a leading manufacturer of data storage devices and solutions. It generates revenue primarily from hard disk drives (~50%) and solid state drives (~40%), with the remainder from flash memory and storage solutions for data centers, client devices, and embedded applications. The company's competitive advantage lies in its vertical integration—controlling both NAND flash memory production and HDD manufacturing—and its scale in serving both consumer and enterprise markets.
Market Cap
$157.7B
Revenue TTM
$11.8B
Net Income TTM
$6.5B
Net Margin
55.1%
WDC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+41.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.66/$1.48
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.78/$1.59
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.13/$1.93
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.39
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.66/$1.48 | +12.2% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.78/$1.59 | +11.9% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.13/$1.93 | +10.4% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.72/$2.39 | +13.8% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.3B
+12.9% YoY
FY2
$16.2B
+21.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.70
-14.8% YoY
FY2
$16.77
+14.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 24.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WDC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WDC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cloud
87.6%
+55.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
48.2%
+28.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cloud is the largest disclosed segment at 87.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 55.1% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 48.2%, up 28.1% YoY.
WDC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $234 — implies -45.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
45.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WDC
90.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+262% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
WDC
90.9x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+240% premium
vs WDC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
90.9x
vs
5Y Average
13.1x
+595% premium
Forward PE
51.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+171%
Technology
22.1x
+133%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
90.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+262%
Technology
26.7x
+240%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+595%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
57.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+279%
Technology
17.5x
+230%
5Y Avg
19.6x
+194%
Price/FCF
122.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
+483%
Technology
19.5x
+529%
5Y Avg
16.5x
+646%
Price/Sales
16.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+430%
Technology
2.4x
+578%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+896%
Dividend Yield
0.03%
S&P 500
1.87%
-99%
Technology
1.16%
-98%
5Y Avg
0.19%
-86%
| Metric | WDC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg WDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 51.6x | 19.1x+171% | 22.1x+133% | — |
| Trailing PE | 90.9x | 25.1x+262% | 26.7x+240% | 13.1x+595% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.7x | 15.2x+279% | 17.5x+230% | 19.6x+194% |
| Price/FCF | 122.9x | 21.1x+483% | 19.5x+529% | 16.5x+646% |
| Price/Sales | 16.6x | 3.1x+430% | 2.4x+578% | 1.7x+896% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.03% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.19% |
WDC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWDC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WDC generates $2.9B in free cash flow at a 24.7% margin — 13.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
55.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
44.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.0× FCF
~1.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
91.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$149M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.12
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
2.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
339M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageWDC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Intense Market Competition
Western Digital competes with major players such as Kioxia, Intel, and SK Hynix, all vying for market share and influencing pricing power. The need for continuous innovation and strategic positioning is critical to maintain revenue streams and protect margins.
High Risk
Geopolitical Factors & Trade Regulations
Evolving geopolitical dynamics and trade regulations, including tariffs, can impact both enterprise and retail segments of WDC’s business. Changes in tariff schedules or export controls could alter cost structures and market access.
High Risk
Technological Disruption
The rapid evolution of technology, especially with the rise of AI and data‑centric computing, demands significant R&D investment to keep WDC’s storage solutions relevant. Failure to keep pace could erode market share and pricing power.
High Risk
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities & Macroeconomic Headwinds
Vulnerabilities in the global supply chain and broader macroeconomic challenges pose ongoing obstacles to consistent financial performance. Operational resilience is required to mitigate disruptions and maintain production capacity.
Medium
Business Separation Complexity
The strategic separation of WDC’s Flash and HDD businesses introduces execution risk. Successful integration and value unlocking depend on effective management of the split and alignment of resources.
Medium
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of revenue comes from a small number of large hyperscale cloud customers. Deployment pacing or strategic shifts by these key customers could materially affect results.
Medium
Valuation & Market Expectations
WDC’s current valuation reflects high expectations for sustained demand. If near‑perfect execution proves difficult to sustain in a historically cyclical industry, the market may reassess the multiples.
Lower
Climate Change Risks
Physical and transition risks such as increased electricity costs from extreme heat and supply chain disruptions from severe weather events could impact operations. Reputational risk also exists if sustainability performance falls short of customer expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WDC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Driven Storage Demand & Market Leadership
Western Digital is positioned to capture the explosive AI‑driven storage boom, with fully booked capacities projected through 2026 that sustain pricing power and accelerate profit growth. The company dominates enterprise HDDs and near‑line storage, leveraging high‑capacity HDDs and UltraSMR technology to meet data‑center demand.
Strong Revenue & Margin Expansion
The firm posted nearly 28% revenue growth in the last quarter and mid‑40% gross margins, driven by rising cloud‑customer sales. Forecasts show EPS rising 66.67% YoY, with revenue expected to climb from $9.52 B in FY 2025 to $15.96 B in FY 2026.
Operational Margin Expansion & Capital Returns
Separating the lower‑margin flash business has boosted non‑GAAP gross margins to record levels, while a robust free‑cash‑flow‑backed share‑repurchase program and debt‑paydown strategy strengthen the balance sheet.
Long‑Term Customer Commitments & Pricing Power
Strategic agreements with major clients extend through 2027 and 2028, providing demand visibility and pricing leverage, and underpinning sustained earnings growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WDC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$465.26
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$43.60
+967.1% from the low
52-Week High
$480.11
-3.1% from the high
1 Month
+52.97%
3 Month
+78.82%
YTD
+147.9%
1 Year
+933.2%
3Y CAGR
+164.0%
5Y CAGR
+55.1%
10Y CAGR
+32.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WDC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
51.6x
vs 29.2x median
+77% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.9%
vs +13.7% median
-6% below peer median
Net Margin
55.1%
vs 21.6% median
+155% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WDC WDC Western Digital Corporation | $157.7B | 51.6x | +12.9% | 55.1% | Buy | -12.4% |
STX STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $168.1B | 52.3x | +13.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -19.1% |
MU MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $722.4B | 11.2x | +60.3% | 41.5% | Buy | -28.8% |
SND SNDK Sandisk Corporation | $207.6B | 30.8x | +1.5% | 34.2% | Buy | -15.1% |
NTA NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $22.6B | 14.3x | +3.0% | 18.1% | Hold | +5.6% |
PST PSTG Pure Storage, Inc. | $22.0B | 29.2x | +16.4% | 5.1% | Buy | +29.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WDC Dividend and Capital Return
WDC returns capital mainly through $149M/year in buybacks (0.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.03% dividend — combining for 0.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.03%
Payout Ratio
2.4%
How WDC Splits Its Return
Div 0.03%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.03%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.12
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
-15.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$149M
Estimated Shares Retired
320.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
339M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.33 | — | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2020 | $0.76 | -33.3% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| 2019 | $1.13 | -25.0% | 5.4% | 10.9% |
| 2018 | $1.51 | 0.0% | 3.3% | 6.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsWDC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Western Digital Corporation (WDC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 61 analysts covering the stock, 44 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $408, implying -12.4% from the current price of $465.
02What is the WDC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WDC is $408 based on 61 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $660 (+41.9% from today), and the low-end target is $250 (-46.3%). The base case model target is $1524.
03Is Western Digital Corporation (WDC) stock overvalued in 2026?
WDC trades at 51.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Western Digital Corporation (WDC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WDC in 2026 are: (1) Intense Market Competition — Western Digital competes with major players such as Kioxia, Intel, and SK Hynix, all vying for market share and influencing pricing power. (2) Geopolitical Factors & Trade Regulations — Evolving geopolitical dynamics and trade regulations, including tariffs, can impact both enterprise and retail segments of WDC’s business. (3) Technological Disruption — The rapid evolution of technology, especially with the rise of AI and data‑centric computing, demands significant R&D investment to keep WDC’s storage solutions relevant. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Western Digital Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WDC will report consensus revenue of $13.3B (+12.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.70 (-14.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.2B in revenue.
06When does Western Digital Corporation (WDC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WDC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Western Digital Corporation generate?
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.7%. WDC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($149M TTM).