Upside case
Bull case
$3937+514.7%
MU would need investors to value it at roughly 69x earnings — about 58x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
68
analysts
55 bullish · 2 bearish · 68 covering MU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
55
Hold
11
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$456
-28.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $3937
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
68
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $722.4B
MU price targets
Three scenarios for where MU stock could go
Current
~$640
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $640
Base
$4819
Bull
$3937
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$4819+652.4%
At 84x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsAugust year-end
Micron Technology is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and storage chips used in computers, smartphones, data centers, and automotive systems. It generates revenue primarily from DRAM products (~70% of sales) and NAND flash memory (~25%), with the remainder from NOR flash and other storage solutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its advanced manufacturing scale and R&D capabilities in memory technology—one of only three major DRAM producers globally—which creates significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$722.4B
Revenue TTM
$58.1B
Net Income TTM
$24.1B
Net Margin
41.5%
MU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+34.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.60
Revenue
$9.3B/$8.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.03/$2.86
Revenue
$11.3B/$11.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.78/$3.96
Revenue
$13.6B/$12.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$12.20/$9.19
Revenue
$23.9B/$20.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.91/$1.60 | +19.4% | $9.3B/$8.9B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.03/$2.86 | +5.9% | $11.3B/$11.2B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.78/$3.96 | +20.7% | $13.6B/$12.9B | +5.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.20/$9.19 | +32.8% | $23.9B/$20.0B | +19.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$93.2B
+60.3% YoY
FY2
$124.7B
+33.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$44.04
+108.2% YoY
FY2
$57.10
+29.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$22.1B
FCF Margin: 38.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
DRAM Products
77.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.5%
+83.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
DRAM Products is the largest disclosed segment at 77.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.5%, up 83.1% YoY.
MU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $837 — implies +54.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
54.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MU
84.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+236% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MU
84.4x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+216% premium
vs MU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
84.4x
vs
5Y Average
43.6x
+94% premium
Forward PE
11.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Technology
22.1x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
84.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+236%
Technology
26.7x
+216%
5Y Avg
43.6x
+94%
PEG Ratio
3.22x
S&P 500
1.72x
+88%
Technology
1.52x
+111%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
40.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+163%
Technology
17.5x
+129%
5Y Avg
14.7x
+172%
Price/FCF
433.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+1954%
Technology
19.5x
+2119%
5Y Avg
45.9x
+845%
Price/Sales
19.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+518%
Technology
2.4x
+691%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+437%
Dividend Yield
0.07%
S&P 500
1.87%
-96%
Technology
1.16%
-94%
5Y Avg
0.56%
-87%
| Metric | MU | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.2x | 19.1x-41% | 22.1x-49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 84.4x | 25.1x+236% | 26.7x+216% | 43.6x+94% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.22x | 1.72x+88% | 1.52x+111% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 40.0x | 15.2x+163% | 17.5x+129% | 14.7x+172% |
| Price/FCF | 433.1x | 21.1x+1954% | 19.5x+2119% | 45.9x+845% |
| Price/Sales | 19.3x | 3.1x+518% | 2.4x+691% | 3.6x+437% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.07% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.56% |
MU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MU generates $22.1B in free cash flow at a 38.0% margin — 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$58.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+85.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
58.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
48.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
41.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$21.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$22.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
27.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.3× FCF
~0.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Industry Cyclicality
Micron’s DRAM and NAND markets are highly cyclical, with price swings driven by supply-demand imbalances. Dramatic price volatility can erode revenue, margins, and cash flow, especially during inventory corrections or macroeconomic slowdowns.
High Risk
Capital Intensity & Investment Risk
The company must continually invest in advanced fabs and new technologies, often at significant cost. Misaligned capital expenditures can lead to poor returns, increased leverage, and a strained balance sheet.
Medium
Technological Execution & Competition
Micron must innovate and execute new manufacturing processes to stay competitive. Delays, yield issues, or quality problems can erode market share and profitability amid fierce global rivalry.
Medium
Oversupply Risk
Aggressive capex by Micron and peers to meet AI‑related memory demand (e.g., HBM) risks future oversupply. A surplus could normalize prices, squeeze pricing power, and compress margins.
Medium
Depreciation Cliff Risk
Large capex on new fabs may trigger a depreciation cliff in 2027‑28, increasing depreciation expense and potentially reducing profitability in those years.
Medium
Geopolitical & Trade Risks
Operations in China expose Micron to trade barriers and export controls. Such actions can cut revenue, raise compliance costs, and disrupt supply chains.
Medium
Demand Destruction in Consumer Electronics
Rising memory prices can prompt consumers to cut memory content or shift to alternatives, reducing demand for Micron’s products in the consumer segment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI-Driven Memory Demand Surge
Micron sits at the center of the AI buildout, with AI being a memory‑driven problem. Demand for DRAM, HBM, LPDDR, GDDR, and NAND is accelerating as data‑center GPUs, edge devices, and on‑device AI models proliferate. HBM capacity is sold out through 2026 and potentially 2027, while DDR5/lpDDR5 demand remains strong.
Record-Q2 2026 Financial Performance
In fiscal Q2 2026, Micron reported revenue of $23.86 billion, an 85.5% year‑over‑year jump, and quarterly sales up 196.3%. EPS grew 325.6% YoY and 682.1% quarterly, with operating margins widening and free cash flow showing significant growth.
Strategic Balance Sheet Strengthening
Micron completed a significant buyback of senior notes, simplifying and de‑risking its financial structure as it ramps up AI memory capacity. The company also increased its quarterly dividend by 30%, reflecting confidence in sustained business strength.
Industry Supercycle Momentum
The broader memory chip market is experiencing an AI‑driven supercycle, with peers like Samsung and SK Hynix reporting strong earnings driven by HBM demand. This reinforces positive sentiment across the memory sector and supports Micron’s growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$640.45
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$78.54
+715.4% from the low
52-Week High
$651.74
-1.7% from the high
1 Month
+69.54%
3 Month
+67.27%
YTD
+103.0%
1 Year
+696.4%
3Y CAGR
+118.7%
5Y CAGR
+49.7%
10Y CAGR
+51.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.2x
vs 52.0x median
-78% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+60.3%
vs +3.9% median
+1462% above peer median
Net Margin
41.5%
vs 6.6% median
+533% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $722.4B | 11.2x | +60.3% | 41.5% | Buy | -28.8% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
WDC WDC Western Digital Corporation | $157.7B | 51.6x | +12.9% | 55.1% | Buy | -12.4% |
STX STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $168.1B | 52.3x | +13.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -19.1% |
IOS IOSP Innospec Inc. | $1.9B | 15.8x | -0.2% | 6.6% | Hold | +47.1% |
WOL WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | $1.7B | — | +0.1% | -233.9% | Hold | -45.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MU Dividend and Capital Return
MU does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.07%
Payout Ratio
6.1%
How MU Splits Its Return
Div 0.07%
Dividend 0.07%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2024 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $0.46 | +3.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.45 | +122.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 68 analysts covering the stock, 55 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $456, implying -28.8% from the current price of $640.
02What is the MU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MU is $456 based on 68 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1000 (+56.1% from today), and the low-end target is $310 (-51.6%). The base case model target is $4819.
03Is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock overvalued in 2026?
MU trades at 11.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MU in 2026 are: (1) Industry Cyclicality — Micron’s DRAM and NAND markets are highly cyclical, with price swings driven by supply-demand imbalances. (2) Capital Intensity & Investment Risk — The company must continually invest in advanced fabs and new technologies, often at significant cost. (3) Technological Execution & Competition — Micron must innovate and execute new manufacturing processes to stay competitive. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Micron Technology, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MU will report consensus revenue of $93.2B (+60.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $44.04 (+108.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $124.7B in revenue.
06When does Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MU is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Micron Technology, Inc. generate?
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) generated $22.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.0%. MU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).