Upside case
Bull case
$1904+67.9%
MU would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
70
analysts
57 bullish · 2 bearish · 70 covering MU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
57
Hold
11
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1092
-3.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$910 – $1904
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
70
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $1.28T
MU price targets
Three scenarios for where MU stock could go
Current
~$1134
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1134
Bear
$910
Base
$1445
Bull
$1904
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1445+27.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$910-19.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MU down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsAugust year-end
Micron Technology is a leading semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and storage chips used in computers, smartphones, data centers, and automotive systems. It generates revenue primarily from DRAM products (~70% of sales) and NAND flash memory (~25%), with the remainder from NOR flash and other storage solutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its advanced manufacturing scale and R&D capabilities in memory technology—one of only three major DRAM producers globally—which creates significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$1.28T
Revenue TTM
$58.1B
Net Income TTM
$24.1B
Net Margin
41.5%
MU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+34.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.60
Revenue
$9.3B/$8.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.03/$2.86
Revenue
$11.3B/$11.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.78/$3.96
Revenue
$13.6B/$12.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$12.20/$9.19
Revenue
$23.9B/$20.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.91/$1.60 | +19.4% | $9.3B/$8.9B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.03/$2.86 | +5.9% | $11.3B/$11.2B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.78/$3.96 | +20.7% | $13.6B/$12.9B | +5.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.20/$9.19 | +32.8% | $23.9B/$20.0B | +19.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$76.9B
+32.3% YoY
FY2
$95.6B
+24.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.34
+43.4% YoY
FY2
$32.11
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$22.1B
FCF Margin: 38.0%
Next Earnings
June 24, 2026
Expected EPS
$19.62
Expected Revenue
$34.3B
MU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
DRAM Products
77.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.5%
+83.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
DRAM Products is the largest disclosed segment at 77.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.5%, up 83.1% YoY.
MU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $4062 — implies +258.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
258.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MU
149.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+511% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MU
149.4x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+415% premium
vs MU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
149.4x
vs
5Y Average
43.6x
+243% premium
Forward PE
18.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-2%
Technology
22.3x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
149.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+511%
Technology
29.0x
+415%
5Y Avg
43.6x
+243%
PEG Ratio
5.70x
S&P 500
1.66x
+243%
Technology
1.51x
+278%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
70.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+364%
Technology
16.6x
+324%
5Y Avg
14.7x
+379%
Price/FCF
766.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+3605%
Technology
19.2x
+3892%
5Y Avg
45.9x
+1572%
Price/Sales
34.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1007%
Technology
2.4x
+1303%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+851%
Dividend Yield
0.04%
S&P 500
1.91%
-98%
Technology
1.11%
-96%
5Y Avg
0.56%
-93%
| Metric | MU | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.4x | 18.8x | 22.3x-17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 149.4x | 24.4x+511% | 29.0x+415% | 43.6x+243% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.70x | 1.66x+243% | 1.51x+278% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 70.5x | 15.2x+364% | 16.6x+324% | 14.7x+379% |
| Price/FCF | 766.9x | 20.7x+3605% | 19.2x+3892% | 45.9x+1572% |
| Price/Sales | 34.2x | 3.1x+1007% | 2.4x+1303% | 3.6x+851% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.04% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.56% |
MU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MU generates $22.1B in free cash flow at a 38.0% margin — 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$58.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+85.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
58.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
48.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
41.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$21.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$22.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
27.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.3× FCF
~0.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Insider Selling
CEO Mehrotra sold shares across multiple transactions, signaling potential lack of confidence in near-term performance.
High Risk
Cyclical Supply Risks
Looming cyclical supply risks could impact margins and revenue growth into 2027-28.
Medium
Profit-Taking Pressure
Recent stock decline reflects profit-taking and uncertainty about future performance.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Bear-case price target suggests significant downside risk from current levels.
Lower
Market Volatility
Stock performance may be affected by broader market trends and investor sentiment.
Lower
Competitive Pressures
Rising competition in memory and storage solutions could impact market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI structural bottleneck supplier
Micron has transitioned from a cyclical DRAM manufacturer to a critical supplier for the global AI compute stack, with multi-year visibility and pricing power.
Undervalued by market
The market still values Micron like a commodity memory vendor despite its structural role in AI, creating a significant valuation gap.
Strong technology roadmap
Micron's advanced memory and storage solutions are positioned to enable trillion-parameter AI models, reinforcing its competitive edge.
Pricing power advantage
Micron has unprecedented pricing power due to its role as a bottleneck supplier in the AI compute stack.
Industrial IoT and aerospace demand
Micron's solutions cater to the dynamic demands of industrial IoT and aerospace, diversifying its revenue streams.
Institutional ownership support
Top holders like Vanguard Group (8.5%) indicate strong institutional confidence in Micron's long-term prospects.
Free cash flow potential
The bull case includes significant free cash flow generation, despite high capex investments, driving future growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1133.99
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$103.38
+996.9% from the low
52-Week High
$1149.35
-1.3% from the high
1 Month
+66.39%
3 Month
+145.60%
YTD
+259.5%
1 Year
+830.9%
3Y CAGR
+156.9%
5Y CAGR
+71.3%
10Y CAGR
+57.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.4x
vs 73.3x median
-75% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.3%
vs +6.4% median
+401% above peer median
Net Margin
41.5%
vs 6.4% median
+551% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $1.28T | 18.4x | +32.3% | 41.5% | Buy | -3.7% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $672.8B | 123.6x | +5.1% | -5.9% | Hold | -33.5% |
WDC WDC Western Digital Corporation | $253.0B | 74.7x | +9.1% | 55.1% | Buy | -35.8% |
STX STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $233.4B | 71.8x | +9.2% | 21.6% | Buy | -29.5% |
IOS IOSP Innospec Inc. | $2.0B | 17.1x | +1.4% | 6.4% | Hold | +39.0% |
WOL WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. | $2.6B | — | +6.4% | -222.2% | Hold | -65.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MU Dividend and Capital Return
MU does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.04%
Payout Ratio
6.1%
How MU Splits Its Return
Div 0.04%
Dividend 0.04%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.1%
5Y Div CAGR
35.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2024 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $0.46 | +3.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.45 | +122.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 70 analysts covering the stock, 57 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1092, implying -3.7% from the current price of $1134. The bear case scenario is $910 and the bull case is $1904.
02What is the MU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MU is $1092 based on 70 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1625 (+43.3% from today), and the low-end target is $330 (-70.9%). The base case model target is $1445.
03Is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock overvalued in 2026?
MU trades at 18.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MU in 2026 are: (1) Insider Selling — CEO Mehrotra sold shares across multiple transactions, signaling potential lack of confidence in near-term performance. (2) Cyclical Supply Risks — Looming cyclical supply risks could impact margins and revenue growth into 2027-28. (3) Profit-Taking Pressure — Recent stock decline reflects profit-taking and uncertainty about future performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Micron Technology, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MU will report consensus revenue of $76.9B (+32.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.34 (+43.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $95.6B in revenue.
06When does Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) report its next earnings?
Micron Technology, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-24. Consensus expects EPS of $19.62 and revenue of $34.3B. Over recent quarters, MU has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Micron Technology, Inc. generate?
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) generated $22.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.0%. MU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).