Upside case
Bull case
$672-12.8%
The bull case prices STX at 46x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
28 bullish · 4 bearish · 52 covering STX
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
20
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$624
-19.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $672
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
52.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $168.1B
STX price targets
Three scenarios for where STX stock could go
Current
~$771
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $771
Base
$771
Bull
$672
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$771+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing STX — at roughly 52x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
STX · NASDAQTechnologyComputer HardwareJune year-end
Seagate Technology is a leading manufacturer of data storage devices, primarily hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid-state drives (SSDs). It generates revenue through sales of mass capacity storage products — including enterprise drives, video/image drives, and external storage solutions — which account for the majority of its business, supplemented by its Lyve edge-to-cloud platform. The company's competitive advantage lies in its scale manufacturing expertise, established relationships with OEMs and distributors, and its position as one of only two major HDD manufacturers globally.
Market Cap
$168.1B
Revenue TTM
$11.0B
Net Income TTM
$2.4B
Net Margin
21.6%
STX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+33.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.59/$2.45
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.61/$2.40
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.11/$2.78
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.10/$3.51
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.59/$2.45 | +5.7% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.61/$2.40 | +8.8% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.11/$2.78 | +11.9% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.10/$3.51 | +16.8% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.5B
+13.7% YoY
FY2
$15.3B
+22.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.11
+6.9% YoY
FY2
$13.52
+21.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 23.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
STX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
STX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.5%
+91.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.5%, up 91.1% YoY.
STX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $266 — implies -63.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
63.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STX
113.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+354% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
STX
113.9x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+326% premium
vs STX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
113.9x
vs
5Y Average
28.0x
+307% premium
Forward PE
52.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+174%
Technology
22.1x
+136%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
113.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+354%
Technology
26.7x
+326%
5Y Avg
28.0x
+307%
PEG Ratio
9.26x
S&P 500
1.72x
+439%
Technology
1.52x
+508%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
80.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+430%
Technology
17.5x
+362%
5Y Avg
18.7x
+330%
Price/FCF
205.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+875%
Technology
19.5x
+953%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+743%
Price/Sales
18.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+491%
Technology
2.4x
+657%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+685%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
S&P 500
1.87%
-81%
Technology
1.16%
-69%
5Y Avg
3.23%
-89%
| Metric | STX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg STX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 52.3x | 19.1x+174% | 22.1x+136% | — |
| Trailing PE | 113.9x | 25.1x+354% | 26.7x+326% | 28.0x+307% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.26x | 1.72x+439% | 1.52x+508% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 80.6x | 15.2x+430% | 17.5x+362% | 18.7x+330% |
| Price/FCF | 205.5x | 21.1x+875% | 19.5x+953% | 24.4x+743% |
| Price/Sales | 18.5x | 3.1x+491% | 2.4x+657% | 2.4x+685% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.36% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 3.23% |
STX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
STX generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 23.9% margin — 41.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+28.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
28.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
21.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
41.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
27.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$891M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
916.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (41.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.76
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
40.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
218M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSTX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Cyclicality of Storage Demand
Demand for data storage is highly cyclical, with downturns in PCs and data centers often leading to sharp declines in Seagate’s product sales. A sustained slump in these end‑markets can materially reduce revenue and margin levels.
High Risk
Technological Competition
Seagate competes with NAND/flash memory and cloud‑native storage solutions. A rapid shift by customers toward these alternatives could erode market share and negatively impact revenue streams.
High Risk
Rapid Technological Advancements
The storage industry evolves quickly; failure to adopt new technologies such as SSDs could render Seagate’s products obsolete. This could lead to inventory write‑downs and loss of competitive positioning.
High Risk
Demand Fluctuations
Unexpected slowdowns in computer systems and storage subsystems demand can cause sharp declines in disc drive sales. Shifts in consumer preferences or major OS/semiconductor announcements historically defer purchases and create inventory obsolescence.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
Seagate is exposed to cyber‑attacks and data breaches that could disrupt operations, expose proprietary information, and damage reputation. Such incidents could lead to operational downtime and regulatory penalties.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerability
Availability and cost of critical components can fluctuate, and controversies such as alleged AI chip smuggling by third‑party partners highlight the fragility of Seagate’s supply chain. Supply disruptions could increase costs and delay product deliveries.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI & Data Center Storage Demand
The exponential growth of data generated by AI applications and expanding data centers is creating sustained demand for high‑capacity storage solutions, a segment where Seagate is a market leader. Analysts believe the HDD market’s fundamental strength is underestimated amid this demand surge.
HAMR Technological Leadership
Seagate’s lead in Heat‑Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) enables higher‑capacity drives, essential for cloud providers that need to house AI models. This technology positions the company ahead of competitors in delivering next‑generation storage.
Supply‑Demand Dynamics & Margin Expansion
Current HDD shortages are pushing prices per terabyte higher than previously estimated. Hyperscalers are reportedly negotiating higher prices for 2027, which is expected to drive margin expansion and earnings growth for Seagate.
Strong Financial Performance & Capital Return
Seagate has shown significant revenue and earnings growth in recent fiscal years while actively reducing debt. The company is also returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Strategic Focus via Lyve Cloud Divestiture
The divestiture of its Lyve Cloud business to Wasabi Technologies sharpens Seagate’s focus on core mass‑capacity storage, allowing it to allocate resources to high‑margin HDD opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$771.01
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$91.92
+738.8% from the low
52-Week High
$792.01
-2.7% from the high
1 Month
+70.09%
3 Month
+90.16%
YTD
+168.1%
1 Year
+723.9%
3Y CAGR
+139.8%
5Y CAGR
+54.2%
10Y CAGR
+44.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
52.3x
vs 14.3x median
+266% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.7%
vs +11.7% median
+17% above peer median
Net Margin
21.6%
vs 5.1% median
+320% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STX STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | $168.1B | 52.3x | +13.7% | 21.6% | Buy | -19.1% |
WDC WDC Western Digital Corporation | $157.7B | 51.6x | +12.9% | 55.1% | Buy | -12.4% |
NTA NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $22.6B | 14.3x | +3.0% | 18.1% | Hold | +5.6% |
PST PSTG Pure Storage, Inc. | $22.0B | 29.2x | +16.4% | 5.1% | Buy | +29.4% |
SNX SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation | $18.9B | 14.0x | +8.7% | 1.3% | Buy | -24.6% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $39.9B | 12.5x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -4.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STX Dividend and Capital Return
STX returns 0.4% total yield, led by a 0.36% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
Payout Ratio
40.8%
How STX Splits Its Return
Div 0.36%
Dividend 0.36%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.76
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.2%
5Y Div CAGR
2.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
218M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.90 | +2.8% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $2.82 | +0.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2023 | $2.80 | 0.0% | 3.2% | 7.7% |
| 2022 | $2.80 | +3.3% | 11.6% | 15.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $624, implying -19.1% from the current price of $771.
02What is the STX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STX is $624 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1000 (+29.7% from today), and the low-end target is $380 (-50.7%). The base case model target is $771.
03Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock overvalued in 2026?
STX trades at 52.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STX in 2026 are: (1) Cyclicality of Storage Demand — Demand for data storage is highly cyclical, with downturns in PCs and data centers often leading to sharp declines in Seagate’s product sales. (2) Technological Competition — Seagate competes with NAND/flash memory and cloud‑native storage solutions. (3) Rapid Technological Advancements — The storage industry evolves quickly; failure to adopt new technologies such as SSDs could render Seagate’s products obsolete. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Seagate Technology Holdings plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STX will report consensus revenue of $12.5B (+13.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.11 (+6.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.3B in revenue.
06When does Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for STX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Seagate Technology Holdings plc generate?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.9%. STX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).