Upside case
Bull case
$64-13.7%
The bull case prices AFRM at 51x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 covering AFRM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$82
+10.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$31 – $64
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
59.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.6B
AFRM price targets
Three scenarios for where AFRM stock could go
Current
~$74
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $74
Bear
$31
Base
$48
Bull
$64
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$48-34.5%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$31-58.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 35x multiple contraction could push AFRM down roughly 59% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Affirm Holdings, Inc.
AFRM · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJune year-end
Affirm operates a buy-now-pay-later platform that enables consumers to split purchases into installment payments at online and physical retailers. It generates revenue primarily from merchant fees — typically 3-6% of transaction value — and interest income from longer-term loans to consumers. Its key advantage is a transparent, fee-free model that builds consumer trust and a growing merchant network that creates a two-sided marketplace effect.
Market Cap
$24.6B
Revenue TTM
$3.2B
Net Income TTM
$382M
Net Margin
11.9%
AFRM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+70.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.20/$0.12
Revenue
$876M/$837M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.23/$0.11
Revenue
$933M/$883M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.37/$0.28
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.17
Revenue
$1.0B/$995M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.20/$0.12 | +61.9% | $876M/$837M | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.23/$0.11 | +105.2% | $933M/$883M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.37/$0.28 | +32.1% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.30/$0.17 | +76.1% | $1.0B/$995M | +4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.0B
+25.3% YoY
FY2
$5.0B
+25.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.03
-6.4% YoY
FY2
$1.08
+4.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$787M
FCF Margin: 24.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AFRM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AFRM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Merchant Network
79.2%
+30.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.3%
+39.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Merchant Network is the largest disclosed segment at 79.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 30.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.3%, up 39.5% YoY.
AFRM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $37 — implies -49.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
49.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AFRM
492.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+1916% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AFRM
492.8x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+1599% premium
vs AFRM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
492.8x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
59.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+214%
Technology
22.3x
+165%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
492.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1916%
Technology
29.0x
+1599%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
225.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1385%
Technology
16.6x
+1259%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
40.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+98%
Technology
19.2x
+113%
5Y Avg
35.7x
+15%
Price/Sales
7.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+147%
Technology
2.4x
+213%
5Y Avg
7.8x
-2%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AFRM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AFRM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 59.1x | 18.8x+214% | 22.3x+165% | — |
| Trailing PE | 492.8x | 24.4x+1916% | 29.0x+1599% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 225.8x | 15.2x+1385% | 16.6x+1259% | — |
| Price/FCF | 40.9x | 20.7x+98% | 19.2x+113% | 35.7x+15% |
| Price/Sales | 7.6x | 3.1x+147% | 2.4x+213% | 7.8x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
AFRM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAFRM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AFRM generates $787M in free cash flow at a 24.6% margin — returns 1.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
62.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$787M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.3× FCF
~8.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-0.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$250M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
333M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAFRM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Competitive disadvantage
Affirm faces increasing competition in the multi-option checkout space, which could erode its market share.
High Risk
Subprime lending risks
The company's business model resembles subprime lending practices that have historically led to financial instability in consumer finance companies.
High Risk
International expansion challenges
Affirm's UK expansion has encountered larger-than-expected difficulties, posing risks to growth projections.
Medium
Consumer overspending risks
The 'buy now, pay later' model may encourage overspending by consumers, leading to potential defaults.
Medium
Growth sustainability concerns
Despite rapid GMV growth, there are doubts about the quality and durability of Affirm's expansion.
Lower
Regulatory scrutiny
The BNPL sector faces potential regulatory challenges that could impact Affirm's operations.
Lower
Eligibility and minimum purchase requirements
Pay-over-time plans require eligibility checks and minimum purchases, which may limit customer adoption.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AFRM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
No hidden fees
Affirm offers buy now, pay later services without late fees or hidden interest, providing transparency and consistent payments.
BNPL market leadership
Affirm is a leader in the Buy Now, Pay Later space, with rapid growth and strong underwriting capabilities.
Offline expansion
The company is expanding its presence beyond online retail into offline markets, broadening its customer base.
Improving unit economics
Affirm is demonstrating better unit economics in digital lending, enhancing profitability and scalability.
Consumer-friendly model
Affirm's model addresses credit card inefficiencies by offering flexible payment options and upfront interest visibility.
Secure transactions
Affirm ensures secure payments and safeguards customer information, building trust and reliability.
Strong fintech fundamentals
The company benefits from robust fundamentals in the fintech sector, supporting long-term growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AFRM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.92
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$42.09
+75.6% from the low
52-Week High
$100.00
-26.1% from the high
1 Month
+14.76%
3 Month
+66.41%
YTD
-0.1%
1 Year
+19.8%
3Y CAGR
+66.4%
5Y CAGR
+1.6%
10Y CAGR
-2.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AFRM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
59.1x
vs 29.0x median
+103% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+25.3%
vs +13.6% median
+86% above peer median
Net Margin
11.9%
vs 10.1% median
+18% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AFR AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | $24.6B | 59.1x | +25.3% | 11.9% | Buy | +10.8% |
SEZ SEZL Sezzle Inc. | $5.5B | 32.0x | +13.6% | 30.8% | Buy | -17.9% |
LPR LPRO Open Lending Corporation | $368M | 29.0x | +17.4% | -5.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
UPS UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $3.1B | 14.1x | +14.8% | 4.2% | Buy | +14.9% |
LC LC LendingClub Corporation | $2.2B | 11.0x | +8.6% | 10.2% | Buy | +18.4% |
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $22.8B | 30.0x | +5.7% | 10.1% | Hold | +19.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AFRM Dividend and Capital Return
AFRM returns 1.0% annually — null% through dividends and 1.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$250M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
333M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsAFRM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $82, implying +10.8% from the current price of $74. The bear case scenario is $31 and the bull case is $64.
02What is the AFRM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AFRM is $82 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+35.3% from today), and the low-end target is $68 (-8.0%). The base case model target is $48.
03Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock overvalued in 2026?
AFRM trades at 59.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AFRM in 2026 are: (1) Competitive disadvantage — Affirm faces increasing competition in the multi-option checkout space, which could erode its market share. (2) Subprime lending risks — The company's business model resembles subprime lending practices that have historically led to financial instability in consumer finance companies. (3) International expansion challenges — Affirm's UK expansion has encountered larger-than-expected difficulties, posing risks to growth projections. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AFRM will report consensus revenue of $4.0B (+25.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.03 (-6.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.0B in revenue.
06When does Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AFRM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Affirm Holdings, Inc. generate?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) generated $787M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.6%. AFRM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($250M TTM).