Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AFRM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 covering AFRM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$81
+23.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
60.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.8B
AFRM price targets
Three scenarios for where AFRM stock could go
Current
~$66
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$66+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AFRM — at roughly 61x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Affirm Holdings, Inc.
AFRM · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJune year-end
Affirm operates a buy-now-pay-later platform that enables consumers to split purchases into installment payments at online and physical retailers. It generates revenue primarily from merchant fees — typically 3-6% of transaction value — and interest income from longer-term loans to consumers. Its key advantage is a transparent, fee-free model that builds consumer trust and a growing merchant network that creates a two-sided marketplace effect.
Market Cap
$21.8B
Revenue TTM
$3.7B
Net Income TTM
$282M
Net Margin
7.6%
AFRM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+66.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.01/$-0.01
Revenue
$783M/$783M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.20/$0.12
Revenue
$876M/$837M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.23/$0.11
Revenue
$933M/$883M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.37/$0.28
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.01/$-0.01 | +258.2% | $783M/$783M | +0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20/$0.12 | +61.9% | $876M/$837M | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.23/$0.11 | +105.2% | $933M/$883M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.37/$0.28 | +32.1% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +6.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.6B
+24.0% YoY
FY2
$6.2B
+33.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.11
+37.4% YoY
FY2
$1.55
+39.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$619M
FCF Margin: 16.7%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.17
Expected Revenue
$995M
AFRM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AFRM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Merchant Network
79.2%
+30.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.3%
+39.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Merchant Network is the largest disclosed segment at 79.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 30.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.3%, up 39.5% YoY.
AFRM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $13 — implies -81.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
81.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AFRM
437.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+1633% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AFRM
437.2x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+1491% premium
vs AFRM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
437.2x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
60.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+219%
Technology
21.7x
+180%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
437.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+1633%
Technology
27.5x
+1491%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
205.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1249%
Technology
17.4x
+1084%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
36.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+70%
Technology
19.8x
+83%
5Y Avg
35.7x
+2%
Price/Sales
6.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+116%
Technology
2.4x
+181%
5Y Avg
7.8x
-13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AFRM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AFRM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 60.8x | 19.1x+219% | 21.7x+180% | — |
| Trailing PE | 437.2x | 25.2x+1633% | 27.5x+1491% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 205.7x | 15.3x+1249% | 17.4x+1084% | — |
| Price/FCF | 36.3x | 21.3x+70% | 19.8x+83% | 35.7x |
| Price/Sales | 6.8x | 3.1x+116% | 2.4x+181% | 7.8x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
AFRM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAFRM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AFRM generates $619M in free cash flow at a 16.7% margin — returns 1.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+32.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$619M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.5× FCF
~10.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-0.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$250M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
333M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAFRM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Credit Losses
Affirm's provision for credit losses is significantly influenced by the amount of loans on its balance sheet and estimates of future losses. The company extends credit to individuals with lower credit scores, increasing the risk of delinquencies and defaults, especially during economic downturns.
High Risk
Funding Costs
Affirm's funding costs, primarily from interest expenses related to warehouse lines and securitizations, can fluctuate and impact profitability. Access to capital markets for financing growth could be restricted by factors such as a deterioration of earnings or market volatility.
High Risk
Concentration Risk
A significant portion of Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) comes from a small number of large retail partners. The loss of one of these major customers could substantially negatively impact Affirm's financial performance.
Medium
Competition
The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market is increasingly competitive, with major players like PayPal, Klarna, and Afterpay offering similar products. This competition can lead to pressure on merchant fees and profitability.
Medium
Economic Downturns
Rising household debt and economic strain increase the risk of delinquencies. A contraction in the economy or a rise in unemployment could significantly impact Affirm's repayment rates and profitability.
Medium
Regulatory Scrutiny
Increasing regulatory attention on consumer lending, including potential licensing and oversight of BNPL providers, could lead to tighter margins and increased compliance costs.
Lower
Stock Volatility
The market price of Affirm's Class A common stock has been and may continue to be highly volatile, subject to wide fluctuations due to market conditions and operating performance.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analysts believe Affirm's current valuation assumes sustained hyper-growth and benign credit conditions, which may not be sustainable. This perception implies significant downside potential for the stock.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AFRM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Player in BNPL Market
Affirm is recognized as a leading BNPL lender in the United States, holding a significant portion of the market value and revenue within the U.S. BNPL sector.
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Affirm is projected to achieve strong revenue growth, with estimates suggesting rates could reach 28% year-over-year for fiscal 2026, potentially exceeding $4 billion in revenue.
Strategic Partnerships with Major Retailers
Affirm has secured crucial partnerships with major retailers and e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Apple, and Shopify, vital for expanding its merchant network and driving transaction volumes.
Innovative Product Offerings
Affirm is continuously innovating with offerings like the Affirm Card and AI-driven underwriting, which aim to support higher transaction volumes and stronger margins.
Improving Profitability and Cash Flow
Affirm has recently become profitable, showing strong conversion of adjusted operating income into free cash flow, with projections of significant free cash flow generation in the coming fiscal years.
International Expansion Opportunities
Entry into new markets, such as the UK, opens up significant growth opportunities for Affirm, enhancing its global footprint.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AFRM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$65.58
52W Range Position
41%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$42.09
+55.8% from the low
52-Week High
$100.00
-34.4% from the high
1 Month
+35.36%
3 Month
+14.99%
YTD
-11.4%
1 Year
+28.6%
3Y CAGR
+76.4%
5Y CAGR
+3.8%
10Y CAGR
-3.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AFRM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
60.8x
vs 15.7x median
+286% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+24.0%
vs +43.8% median
-45% below peer median
Net Margin
7.6%
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AFR AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | $21.8B | 60.8x | +24.0% | 7.6% | Buy | +23.2% |
SEZ SEZL Sezzle Inc. | $2.9B | 18.3x | +46.2% | — | Buy | -1.2% |
LPR LPRO Open Lending Corporation | $202M | 15.7x | +43.8% | — | Hold | +133.9% |
UPS UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $2.7B | 14.5x | +45.2% | — | Buy | +57.5% |
LC LC LendingClub Corporation | $2.0B | 9.8x | +6.8% | — | Buy | +33.4% |
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $20.8B | 27.0x | +15.3% | — | Hold | +28.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AFRM Dividend and Capital Return
AFRM returns 1.1% annually — null% through dividends and 1.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$250M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
333M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsAFRM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $81, implying +23.2% from the current price of $66.
02What is the AFRM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AFRM is $81 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+52.5% from today), and the low-end target is $55 (-16.1%). The base case model target is $66.
03Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock overvalued in 2026?
AFRM trades at 60.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AFRM in 2026 are: (1) Credit Losses — Affirm's provision for credit losses is significantly influenced by the amount of loans on its balance sheet and estimates of future losses. (2) Funding Costs — Affirm's funding costs, primarily from interest expenses related to warehouse lines and securitizations, can fluctuate and impact profitability. (3) Concentration Risk — A significant portion of Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) comes from a small number of large retail partners. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AFRM will report consensus revenue of $4.6B (+24.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.11 (+37.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.2B in revenue.
06When does Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) report its next earnings?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $995M. Over recent quarters, AFRM has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Affirm Holdings, Inc. generate?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) generated $619M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.7%. AFRM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($250M TTM).