Upside case
Bull case
$840+98.1%
SPGI would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering SPGI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$548
+29.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$344 – $840
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $125.5B
SPGI price targets
Three scenarios for where SPGI stock could go
Current
~$424
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $424
Bear
$344
Base
$564
Bull
$840
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$564+33.1%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$344-18.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push SPGI down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
S&P Global Inc.
SPGI · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
S&P Global is a leading provider of financial information, analytics, and benchmarks for global capital and commodity markets. It generates revenue primarily through subscription-based data services (~60%), credit ratings (~20%), and index licensing (~15%) — with its S&P 500 index being one of the most widely tracked benchmarks worldwide. The company's key moat lies in its entrenched market position, proprietary data ecosystems, and regulatory barriers that create high switching costs for institutional clients.
Market Cap
$125.5B
Net Income TTM
$4.8B
SPGI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.43/$4.21
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.73/$4.42
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.30/$4.33
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.97/$4.84
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.43/$4.21 | +5.2% | $3.8B/$3.7B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.73/$4.42 | +7.0% | $3.9B/$3.8B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.30/$4.33 | -0.7% | $3.9B/$3.9B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.97/$4.84 | +2.7% | $4.2B/$4.1B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.5B
+7.8% YoY
FY2
$17.8B
+7.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.90
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$19.51
+9.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.6B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SPGI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SPGI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Market Intelligence Segment
37.1%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
60.8%
+7.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Market Intelligence Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 37.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 60.8%, up 7.9% YoY.
SPGI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $552 — implies +29.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SPGI
28.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+15% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SPGI
28.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+117% premium
vs SPGI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.9x
vs
5Y Average
40.0x
28% discount
Forward PE
21.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+13%
Financial Services
10.4x
+108%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+15%
Financial Services
13.3x
+117%
5Y Avg
40.0x
-28%
PEG Ratio
3.32x
S&P 500
1.72x
+94%
Financial Services
1.01x
+229%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+18%
Financial Services
11.4x
+58%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-26%
Price/FCF
23.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+9%
Financial Services
10.6x
+118%
5Y Avg
34.2x
-33%
Price/Sales
8.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+162%
Financial Services
2.2x
+267%
5Y Avg
11.2x
-27%
Dividend Yield
0.90%
S&P 500
1.87%
-52%
Financial Services
2.70%
-66%
5Y Avg
0.78%
+16%
| Metric | SPGI | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SPGI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.6x | 19.1x+13% | 10.4x+108% | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.9x | 25.1x+15% | 13.3x+117% | 40.0x-28% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.32x | 1.72x+94% | 1.01x+229% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.0x | 15.2x+18% | 11.4x+58% | 24.3x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 23.0x | 21.1x | 10.6x+118% | 34.2x-33% |
| Price/Sales | 8.2x | 3.1x+162% | 2.2x+267% | 11.2x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.90% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.78% |
SPGI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSPGI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SPGI generates 12.9% ROE and 7.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$16.05
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
4.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.83
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
296M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSPGI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Cost Pressure
Increased regulation of S&P Global’s ratings business in the U.S., Europe, and globally could raise operating costs and negatively impact financial results. Future legislation on financial services, energy, credit rating data, sustainability, data privacy, cybersecurity, and trade policies may reduce demand for ratings or force higher costs that cannot be fully passed to customers.
High Risk
AI & Cybersecurity Threats
Concerns about AI’s impact on financial data providers have already contributed to stock price declines, and the company’s large role in global markets exposes it to significant cybersecurity risks. Failure to adapt to AI or protect confidential data could erode S&P Global’s competitive advantage and trigger costly breaches.
High Risk
Market & Economic Sensitivity
S&P Global’s revenue is highly sensitive to global economic, financial, political, and regulatory conditions. Slower GDP growth, recessions, banking sector instability, and volatility in debt, equity, commodities, and energy markets can reduce demand for its products and compress credit spreads, hurting profitability.
Medium
Competitive & Consolidation Pressure
The financial information services industry is crowded, with established players and new entrants. Consolidation among customers and suppliers could increase bargaining power, while competitors like Moody’s are perceived as more insulated against AI risks, potentially eroding S&P Global’s market share.
Medium
Earnings Outlook & Stock Performance
The company’s 2026 earnings outlook has been weaker than expected, with adjusted earnings forecasts falling below analyst consensus. Over the past year, S&P Global’s stock has underperformed broader market indices and the financial sector, trading below its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SPGI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Market Position & Diversification
S&P Global holds a dominant role in the global financial system with high‑margin franchises in data, indices, and credit ratings. Its diversified business lines contribute to a robust free cash flow profile, underpinning consistent revenue generation through subscription models.
Mid‑to‑High‑Teens Earnings Growth
The company is projected to grow earnings at a mid‑to‑high teens compound annual growth rate over the next five years, driven by organic growth, margin expansion, and strategic capital deployment. Recent performance shows strong revenue and EPS growth, with continued gains expected through 2026, especially in the accelerated‑growth Market Intelligence segment.
Capital Returns & Attractive Valuation
S&P Global has delivered 53 consecutive years of dividend increases and regularly returns capital through buybacks. The stock is now trading below its 10‑year average P/E and P/FCF ratios, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to discounted cash flow models.
Capital‑Market Tailwinds for Ratings
Renewed optimism around debt financing, lower interest rates, and a backlog of IPOs provide a near‑term tailwind for the company’s credit ratings and index businesses. Strong debt issuance volumes are a key driver for its ratings business, boosting revenue prospects.
AI‑Driven Productivity & Growth
S&P Global is investing heavily in AI, viewing it as a net tailwind for both productivity and top‑line growth. AI‑driven innovation and proprietary data are fueling growth and efficiency, while the company’s strong economic moat and brand trust mitigate risks associated with generative AI.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SPGI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$423.87
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$381.61
+11.1% from the low
52-Week High
$579.05
-26.8% from the high
1 Month
-2.36%
3 Month
-6.16%
YTD
-17.3%
1 Year
-16.2%
3Y CAGR
+6.2%
5Y CAGR
+1.6%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SPGI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.6x
vs 23.3x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.8%
vs +6.8% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 10.6% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPG SPGI S&P Global Inc. | $125.5B | 21.6x | +7.8% | — | Buy | +29.3% |
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $80.6B | 27.2x | +7.9% | — | Buy | +19.8% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88.0B | 19.4x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +26.0% |
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.3B | 29.6x | +10.2% | — | Buy | +16.1% |
LSE LSE Leishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd. | $84M | — | — | 10.6% | — | — |
FDS FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | $9.4B | 12.4x | +5.7% | — | Hold | +26.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SPGI Dividend and Capital Return
SPGI returns capital mainly through $5.0B/year in buybacks (4.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.90% dividend — combining for 4.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
0.90%
Payout Ratio
26.2%
How SPGI Splits Its Return
Div 0.90%
Buyback 4.0%
Dividend 0.90%Buybacks 4.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.83
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.0%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
296M
At 4.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.97 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.84 | +5.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% |
| 2024 | $3.64 | +1.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $3.60 | +8.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% |
| 2022 | $3.32 | +7.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsSPGI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $548, implying +29.3% from the current price of $424. The bear case scenario is $344 and the bull case is $840.
02What is the SPGI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SPGI is $548 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $627 (+47.9% from today), and the low-end target is $482 (+13.7%). The base case model target is $564.
03Is S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SPGI trades at 21.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SPGI in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Cost Pressure — Increased regulation of S&P Global’s ratings business in the U. (2) AI & Cybersecurity Threats — Concerns about AI’s impact on financial data providers have already contributed to stock price declines, and the company’s large role in global markets exposes it to significant cybersecurity risks. (3) Market & Economic Sensitivity — S&P Global’s revenue is highly sensitive to global economic, financial, political, and regulatory conditions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is S&P Global Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SPGI will report consensus revenue of $16.5B (+7.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.90 (+11.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.8B in revenue.
06When does S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SPGI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does S&P Global Inc. generate?
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) generated $5.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SPGI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($5.0B TTM).