Upside case
Bull case
$936+60.8%
MSCI would need investors to value it at roughly 48x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering MSCI
Strong Buy
1
Buy
17
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$674
+15.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$548 – $936
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
29.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.4B
MSCI price targets
Three scenarios for where MSCI stock could go
Current
~$582
Confidence
83 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $582
Bear
$548
Base
$807
Bull
$936
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$807+38.5%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$548-5.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push MSCI down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MSCI Inc.
MSCI · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
MSCI is a financial data and analytics provider that creates indexes, risk management tools, and ESG ratings used by institutional investors worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its index licensing (~60% of revenue) and analytics/ESG services (~40%), with most contracts being recurring annual agreements. The company's moat comes from its entrenched position as an industry standard—its indexes are embedded in trillions of dollars of investment products, creating significant switching costs and network effects.
Market Cap
$42.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
MSCI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.17/$4.15
Revenue
$773M/$770M
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.47/$4.38
Revenue
$793M/$797M
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.66/$4.60
Revenue
$823M/$822M
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.55/$4.44
Revenue
$851M/$838M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.17/$4.15 | +0.5% | $773M/$770M | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.47/$4.38 | +2.1% | $793M/$797M | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.66/$4.60 | +1.3% | $823M/$822M | +0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.55/$4.44 | +2.5% | $851M/$838M | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.5B
+10.2% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.14
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$21.56
+12.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MSCI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MSCI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Index
64.3%
+11.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
22.5%
+8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Index is the largest disclosed segment at 64.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.9% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 22.5%, up 8.5% YoY.
MSCI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $562 — implies -4.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MSCI
37.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+48% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MSCI
37.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+180% premium
vs MSCI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.4x
vs
5Y Average
46.5x
20% discount
Forward PE
29.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+56%
Financial Services
10.5x
+183%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+48%
Financial Services
13.4x
+180%
5Y Avg
46.5x
-20%
PEG Ratio
2.21x
S&P 500
1.75x
+27%
Financial Services
1.03x
+116%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+63%
Financial Services
11.4x
+119%
5Y Avg
32.6x
-24%
Price/FCF
27.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+28%
Financial Services
10.6x
+157%
5Y Avg
39.0x
-30%
Price/Sales
13.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+332%
Financial Services
2.3x
+500%
5Y Avg
18.1x
-25%
Dividend Yield
1.24%
S&P 500
1.88%
-34%
Financial Services
2.68%
-54%
5Y Avg
0.98%
+27%
| Metric | MSCI | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MSCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 29.7x | 19.1x+56% | 10.5x+183% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.4x | 25.2x+48% | 13.4x+180% | 46.5x-20% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.21x | 1.75x+27% | 1.03x+116% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.9x | 15.3x+63% | 11.4x+119% | 32.6x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 27.4x | 21.3x+28% | 10.6x+157% | 39.0x-30% |
| Price/Sales | 13.5x | 3.1x+332% | 2.3x+500% | 18.1x-25% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.98% |
MSCI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMSCI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MSCI generates and 24.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.98
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
24.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$515M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.1%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
5.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.20
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
73M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMSCI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Data Quality
MSCI’s ESG ratings depend on more than 1,000 data points sourced from corporate disclosures, government data, news media, and academic journals. Any change in ESG reporting regulations or data privacy laws could disrupt data collection, leading to inaccurate ratings and reputational damage that could materially affect subscription revenue.
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
MSCI competes with established ESG data providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv, as well as emerging AI‑driven platforms. Rapid innovation or aggressive pricing by competitors could erode MSCI’s market share in ESG ratings and factor indexes, impacting top‑line growth.
Medium
ESG Controversy Exposure
MSCI analyzes ESG controversies that companies may be involved in. If MSCI’s assessments are perceived as inaccurate or biased, investors may question the reliability of its ratings, potentially leading to client loss and a decline in fee income.
Medium
Factor Index Adoption
MSCI’s factor indexes—Momentum, Low Volatility, Quality, Value, Minimum Volatility, and Risk‑Weighted—are designed to capture specific risk‑return drivers. A shift away from factor‑based strategies or failure to maintain index performance could reduce subscription fees.
Lower
Climate Data Accuracy
MSCI provides climate change insights, including emissions data and fossil‑fuel exposure. Inaccuracies or delays in climate data could diminish the perceived value of MSCI’s climate analytics, potentially affecting client retention.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MSCI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent Double‑Digit Revenue & EPS Growth
MSCI has posted year‑over‑year revenue increases consistently exceeding 10%, with earnings per share projected to continue double‑digit growth. This robust performance underpins the company’s ability to generate steady cash flow and fund future expansion.
Dominant Index Market Share
Nearly 70% of all institutional passive assets are tied to MSCI indices, giving the firm a virtually impenetrable moat. The scale and integration of its index offerings create strong client lock‑in and a durable competitive advantage.
Subscription‑Based Recurring Revenue
MSCI’s resilient subscription model drives recurring income, with custom index subscription revenue growing at a mid‑teen rate that outpaces industry norms. This recurring revenue stream provides predictable cash flow and supports long‑term growth.
Growth in ETFs, ESG & Factor Investing
MSCI holds a significant market share in ETFs, ESG investing, and factor‑based investing, all of which are expanding rapidly. These high‑growth segments are key catalysts for future revenue expansion.
Solid Dividend & Shareholder Returns
The company offers a solid dividend yield and has a history of substantial share buybacks, delivering steady income and shareholder value. These returns reinforce investor confidence and support long‑term capital allocation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MSCI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$582.14
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$501.08
+16.2% from the low
52-Week High
$626.28
-7.0% from the high
1 Month
+6.48%
3 Month
+4.37%
YTD
+3.0%
1 Year
+6.8%
3Y CAGR
+7.2%
5Y CAGR
+4.1%
10Y CAGR
+22.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MSCI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
29.7x
vs 21.6x median
+38% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.2%
vs +7.8% median
+30% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 27.5% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.4B | 29.7x | +10.2% | — | Buy | +15.8% |
SPG SPGI S&P Global Inc. | $125.4B | 21.6x | +7.8% | — | Buy | +29.4% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $86.9B | 19.1x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +27.6% |
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $79.5B | 26.9x | +7.9% | — | Buy | +21.4% |
FTN FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $66.6B | 30.2x | +13.2% | 27.5% | Hold | -3.5% |
FDS FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | $9.1B | 11.9x | +5.7% | — | Hold | +31.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MSCI Dividend and Capital Return
MSCI returns capital mainly through $2.5B/year in buybacks (5.9% buyback yield), with a modest 1.24% dividend — combining for 7.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 11 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.9%
Dividend Yield
1.24%
Payout Ratio
46.3%
How MSCI Splits Its Return
Div 1.24%
Buyback 5.9%
Dividend 1.24%Buybacks 5.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.20
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.3%
5Y Div CAGR
19.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
73M
At 5.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.20 | +12.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | $6.40 | +15.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $5.52 | +20.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| 2022 | $4.58 | +25.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsMSCI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MSCI Inc. (MSCI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MSCI Inc. (MSCI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $674, implying +15.8% from the current price of $582. The bear case scenario is $548 and the bull case is $936.
02What is the MSCI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MSCI is $674 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $730 (+25.4% from today), and the low-end target is $618 (+6.2%). The base case model target is $807.
03Is MSCI Inc. (MSCI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MSCI trades at 29.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MSCI Inc. (MSCI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MSCI in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Data Quality — MSCI’s ESG ratings depend on more than 1,000 data points sourced from corporate disclosures, government data, news media, and academic journals. (2) Competitive Landscape — MSCI competes with established ESG data providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv, as well as emerging AI‑driven platforms. (3) ESG Controversy Exposure — MSCI analyzes ESG controversies that companies may be involved in. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MSCI Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MSCI will report consensus revenue of $3.5B (+10.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.14 (+6.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does MSCI Inc. (MSCI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MSCI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does MSCI Inc. generate?
MSCI Inc. (MSCI) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MSCI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($2.5B TTM).