Upside case
Bull case
$239+54.1%
ICE would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
33 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering ICE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
32
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$196
+26.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$146 – $239
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $88.0B
ICE price targets
Three scenarios for where ICE stock could go
Current
~$155
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $155
Bear
$146
Base
$191
Bull
$239
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$191+22.9%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$146-6.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push ICE down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
ICE · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
Intercontinental Exchange operates a global network of regulated financial marketplaces — including exchanges, clearing houses, and data services — for trading commodities, derivatives, fixed income, and equities. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from its exchanges (~60%), data services subscriptions (~25%), and mortgage technology fees (~15%). Its competitive moat lies in its massive scale and network effects — once market participants adopt its trading and clearing infrastructure, switching costs become prohibitively high.
Market Cap
$88.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.3B
ICE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.77
Revenue
$3.3B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.71/$1.60
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.68
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.35/$2.23
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.81/$1.77 | +2.3% | $3.3B/$2.5B | +28.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.71/$1.60 | +6.9% | $3.0B/$2.4B | +24.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.71/$1.68 | +1.8% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.35/$2.23 | +5.4% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.8B
+1.2% YoY
FY2
$13.8B
+8.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.72
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$7.09
+5.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.3B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ICE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ICE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fixed Income And Data Services Segment
51.1%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
63.6%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Fixed Income And Data Services Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 51.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 63.6%, up 4.6% YoY.
ICE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $175 — implies +13.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ICE
26.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+7% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ICE
26.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+102% premium
vs ICE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.9x
vs
5Y Average
29.7x
10% discount
Forward PE
19.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+2%
Financial Services
10.4x
+86%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+7%
Financial Services
13.3x
+102%
5Y Avg
29.7x
-10%
PEG Ratio
3.03x
S&P 500
1.72x
+77%
Financial Services
1.01x
+199%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+9%
Financial Services
11.4x
+46%
5Y Avg
18.2x
-9%
Price/FCF
20.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-3%
Financial Services
10.6x
+94%
5Y Avg
22.7x
-10%
Price/Sales
7.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+123%
Financial Services
2.2x
+213%
5Y Avg
7.3x
-4%
Dividend Yield
1.25%
S&P 500
1.87%
-33%
Financial Services
2.70%
-54%
5Y Avg
1.23%
+1%
| Metric | ICE | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ICE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.4x | 19.1x | 10.4x+86% | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.9x | 25.1x | 13.3x+102% | 29.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.03x | 1.72x+77% | 1.01x+199% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.6x | 15.2x | 11.4x+46% | 18.2x |
| Price/FCF | 20.5x | 21.1x | 10.6x+94% | 22.7x |
| Price/Sales | 7.0x | 3.1x+123% | 2.2x+213% | 7.3x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.25% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.23% |
ICE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolICE Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ICE generates 11.6% ROE and 2.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.78
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$837M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.93
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
566M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageICE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
ICE faces significant legal and regulatory risk from changes in regulations, compliance issues, and potential litigation. Adverse regulatory actions could reduce trading volumes, directly impacting revenue streams. Taxation changes and government incentive shifts also pose additional uncertainty.
Medium
Market & Economic Volatility
Fluctuations in global financial markets, interest rates, and geopolitical events can affect ICE’s trading volumes and revenue. Volatility in sectors such as energy can create both tailwinds and headwinds, but ICE has limited influence over volume levels.
Medium
Operational Resilience
Ensuring reliable and secure market operations is critical; failures could disrupt trading and clearing services. ICE must maintain fault‑tolerant infrastructure, structured incident processes, and rigorous operational readiness validation.
Medium
Technology & Cybersecurity
ICE’s dependence on technology exposes it to cyberattacks and the need for continuous innovation. The company maintains a robust technology infrastructure and business continuity strategy to mitigate these risks.
Lower
Climate & Environmental
ICE is quantifying climate risk in fixed income and real estate, assessing physical risks from wildfires and floods and transition risks from renewable energy shifts. These factors could impact market participation and regulatory requirements.
Lower
Liquidity Management
ICE’s liquidity risk assessment relies on data‑driven approaches to evaluate volume, time, and price factors for financial instruments. Effective risk management programs aim to mitigate liquidity disruptions.
Lower
Human Capital
Recruitment, training, and retention of key employees, along with potential misconduct and litigation, pose risks to ICE’s operational effectiveness and reputation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ICE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Own the Casino Revenue Model
ICE’s model generates fees from every trade, listing, and data stream, ensuring revenue regardless of market direction. This moat secures a steady income base across market cycles.
Recurring Revenue >50%
Subscriptions and data products now account for more than 50% of ICE’s total revenue, providing high gross margins and predictable cash flow. This shift reduces reliance on volatile trading fees.
Mortgage Tech Expansion via Black Knight
The acquisition of Black Knight is expected to strengthen ICE’s mortgage technology segment, positioning it to capture digital mortgage market growth. This move expands ICE’s footprint beyond traditional exchanges.
14‑Year Dividend Growth
ICE has increased its dividend for 14 consecutive years, underscoring management’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. This track record signals financial stability and confidence.
Energy Trading Volume Surge
Derivatives trading volumes in the energy sector have grown consistently, with recent Q4 2025 results beating consensus. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving higher energy product volumes, boosting revenue potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ICE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$155.28
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$143.17
+8.5% from the low
52-Week High
$189.35
-18.0% from the high
1 Month
-6.68%
3 Month
-7.73%
YTD
-2.9%
1 Year
-10.7%
3Y CAGR
+12.8%
5Y CAGR
+6.2%
10Y CAGR
+11.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ICE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.4x
vs 23.5x median
-18% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.2%
vs +6.8% median
-82% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88.0B | 19.4x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +26.0% |
CME CME CME Group Inc. | $104.1B | 23.5x | +6.8% | — | Hold | +11.7% |
CBO CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | $36.0B | 27.4x | -4.0% | — | Hold | -13.9% |
NDA NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | $50.6B | 22.6x | -2.6% | — | Buy | +28.8% |
MKT MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $5.6B | 18.5x | +9.4% | — | Hold | +29.3% |
TW TW Tradeweb Markets Inc. | $23.5B | 27.3x | +17.5% | — | Buy | +18.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ICE Dividend and Capital Return
ICE returns 2.8% annually — 1.25% through dividends and 1.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
1.25%
Payout Ratio
33.4%
How ICE Splits Its Return
Div 1.25%
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 1.25%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.93
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.1%
5Y Div CAGR
9.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
7 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
566M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.92 | +6.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $1.80 | +7.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $1.68 | +10.5% | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $1.52 | +15.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsICE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 33 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $196, implying +26.0% from the current price of $155. The bear case scenario is $146 and the bull case is $239.
02What is the ICE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ICE is $196 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $211 (+35.9% from today), and the low-end target is $180 (+15.9%). The base case model target is $191.
03Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) stock overvalued in 2026?
ICE trades at 19.4x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ICE in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory — ICE faces significant legal and regulatory risk from changes in regulations, compliance issues, and potential litigation. (2) Market & Economic Volatility — Fluctuations in global financial markets, interest rates, and geopolitical events can affect ICE’s trading volumes and revenue. (3) Operational Resilience — Ensuring reliable and secure market operations is critical; failures could disrupt trading and clearing services. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ICE will report consensus revenue of $12.8B (+1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.72 (+16.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.8B in revenue.
06When does Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ICE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. generate?
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) generated $4.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. ICE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).