Upside case
Bull case
$12-80.3%
The bull case prices STRK at 0x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewNo CoverageUpdated —
MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Mixed
Covering
—
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 0 covering STRK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – $12
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
—
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.2B
STRK price targets
Three scenarios for where STRK stock could go
Current
~$61
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
—
Where we are now
Current · $61
Bear
$6
Base
$9
Bull
$12
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$9-85.0%
At 0x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-90.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push STRK down roughly 91% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MicroStrategy Incorporated
STRK · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
MicroStrategy is an enterprise analytics software company that provides AI-powered business intelligence platforms for data analysis and decision-making. It generates revenue primarily from software licenses and subscription services (~70%) along with consulting and support services (~30%), while also holding a substantial bitcoin treasury as a strategic asset. The company's key advantage lies in its sophisticated semantic graph technology—which provides unified data access across complex enterprise systems—and its first-mover position in corporate bitcoin adoption.
Market Cap
$20.2B
Revenue TTM
$490M
Net Income TTM
-$12.4B
Net Margin
-2519.4%
STRK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1942.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$32.67/$-0.10
Revenue
$114M/$122M
Q4 2025
EPS
$9.16/$-0.10
Revenue
$129M/$117M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-42.93/$-0.08
Revenue
$123M/$119M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-38.25/$-0.86
Revenue
$124M/$121M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $32.67/$-0.10 | +33324.9% | $114M/$122M | -5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.16/$-0.10 | +9080.4% | $129M/$117M | +10.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-42.93/$-0.08 | -53562.5% | $123M/$119M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $-38.25/$-0.86 | -4337.4% | $124M/$121M | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$505M
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$526M
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.70
+101.9% YoY
FY2
$0.50
-28.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.6B
FCF Margin: 1551.2%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$24.37
Expected Revenue
$123M
STRK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
STRK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $10 — implies -84.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
84.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STRK
-4.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
116% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
STRK
-4.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
114% discount
vs STRK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-4.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
1.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-93%
Technology
22.3x
-94%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-4.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-116%
Technology
29.0x
-114%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
42.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1270%
Technology
2.4x
+1637%
5Y Avg
48.5x
-13%
Dividend Yield
2.14%
S&P 500
1.91%
+12%
Technology
1.11%
+94%
5Y Avg
1.65%
+30%
| Metric | STRK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg STRK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.3x | 18.8x-93% | 22.3x-94% | — |
| Trailing PE | -4.0x | 24.4x-116% | 29.0x-114% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 42.4x | 3.1x+1270% | 2.4x+1637% | 48.5x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.14% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.65% |
STRK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTRK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
STRK generates $7.6B in free cash flow at a 1551.2% margin — returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$490M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
94.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2519.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-37.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1551.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-19.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-24.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-9.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
334M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSTRK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Bitcoin Volatility
MicroStrategy's stock behavior mirrors Bitcoin volatility, surging during crypto bull runs and suffering when the market is flat.
High Risk
Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure
The company operates as a highly leveraged Bitcoin holding vehicle, making it vulnerable to Bitcoin price swings.
High Risk
Fair-Value Accounting Losses
MicroStrategy reported a $12.4 billion Q4 net loss under fair-value accounting due to Bitcoin holdings.
Medium
Sector Competition
Analysts consider competitive positioning in the Technology sector when evaluating MicroStrategy's outlook.
Medium
Revenue Growth Uncertainty
The company's revenue growth trends are a key factor in analyst ratings, adding uncertainty.
Lower
Legacy Software Business
MicroStrategy's legacy software business provides some stability but is overshadowed by Bitcoin exposure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STRK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Bitcoin Treasury Leadership
MicroStrategy is the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, positioning it as a dominant player in Bitcoin accumulation.
Leveraged Bitcoin Proxy
The company serves as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin ownership, attracting investors seeking indirect BTC exposure through equity markets.
Aggressive BTC Accumulation
MicroStrategy employs an aggressive strategy of accumulating Bitcoin through capital markets activity, including convertible debt issuance and structured products.
Largest Corporate BTC Holder
With 738,731 BTC, MicroStrategy holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally, providing significant upside potential if Bitcoin appreciates.
Rebranding as Strategy Inc
The rebranding to Strategy Inc reflects a strategic shift, potentially unlocking new investor interest and market positioning.
Business Intelligence Platform
MicroStrategy’s analytics platform supports big data analysis, offering additional revenue streams beyond Bitcoin holdings.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STRK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.53
52W Range Position
1%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$59.57
+1.6% from the low
52-Week High
$129.48
-53.3% from the high
1 Month
-18.64%
3 Month
-19.97%
YTD
-27.5%
1 Year
-42.0%
3Y CAGR
-9.3%
5Y CAGR
-5.7%
10Y CAGR
-2.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STRK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.3x
vs 2.4x median
-46% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +12.4% median
-76% below peer median
Net Margin
-2519.4%
vs -234.8% median
-973% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STR STRK MicroStrategy Incorporated | $20.2B | 1.3x | +3.0% | -2519.4% | — | — |
MST MSTR Strategy Inc | $37.6B | 2.4x | +3.1% | -2519.4% | Buy | +123.6% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.4B | — | +12.4% | -234.8% | Buy | -12.1% |
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $10.7B | — | +10.4% | -132.8% | Buy | -3.0% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $4.4B | — | +13.9% | -67.7% | Buy | +9.6% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $11.8B | — | +19.8% | -513.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STRK Dividend and Capital Return
STRK returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 2.14% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.14%
Payout Ratio
—
How STRK Splits Its Return
Div 2.14%
Dividend 2.14%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
334M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.24 | — | 0.0% | 1.6% |
FAQ
6 questionsSTRK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) has limited published analyst coverage at this time. The model scenario range runs from $6 to $12 around a current price of $61. Use the scenario targets and valuation multiples on this page as a guide.
02Is MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) stock overvalued in 2026?
STRK trades at 1.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STRK in 2026 are: (1) Bitcoin Volatility — MicroStrategy's stock behavior mirrors Bitcoin volatility, surging during crypto bull runs and suffering when the market is flat. (2) Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure — The company operates as a highly leveraged Bitcoin holding vehicle, making it vulnerable to Bitcoin price swings. (3) Fair-Value Accounting Losses — MicroStrategy reported a $12. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is MicroStrategy Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STRK will report consensus revenue of $505M (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.70 (+101.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $526M in revenue.
05When does MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) report its next earnings?
MicroStrategy Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $24.37 and revenue of $123M. Over recent quarters, STRK has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does MicroStrategy Incorporated generate?
MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) generated $7.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1551.2%. STRK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).