Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing STRK more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewNo CoverageUpdated —
MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Mixed
Covering
—
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 0 covering STRK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
—
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.7B
STRK price targets
Three scenarios for where STRK stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
22 / 100
Updated
—
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MicroStrategy Incorporated
STRK · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
MicroStrategy is an enterprise analytics software company that provides AI-powered business intelligence platforms for data analysis and decision-making. It generates revenue primarily from software licenses and subscription services (~70%) along with consulting and support services (~30%), while also holding a substantial bitcoin treasury as a strategic asset. The company's key advantage lies in its sophisticated semantic graph technology—which provides unified data access across complex enterprise systems—and its first-mover position in corporate bitcoin adoption.
Market Cap
$21.7B
Revenue TTM
$490M
Net Income TTM
-$12.6B
Net Margin
-2566.2%
STRK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
36%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
27%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1724.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-16.44/$-2.44
Revenue
$111M/$116M
Q3 2025
EPS
$32.67/$-0.10
Revenue
$114M/$122M
Q4 2025
EPS
$9.16/$-0.10
Revenue
$129M/$117M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-42.93/$-0.08
Revenue
$123M/$119M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-16.44/$-2.44 | -573.5% | $111M/$116M | -4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.67/$-0.10 | +33324.9% | $114M/$122M | -5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.16/$-0.10 | +9080.4% | $129M/$117M | +10.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-42.93/$-0.08 | -53562.5% | $123M/$119M | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$484M
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$490M
+1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.72
+178.2% YoY
FY2
$1.24
-88.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.6B
FCF Margin: 1551.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
STRK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
STRK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $4391 — implies +5410.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5410.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STRK
-5.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
120% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
STRK
-5.1x
vs
Technology
27.5x
119% discount
vs STRK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
1.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-95%
Technology
21.7x
-95%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-120%
Technology
27.5x
-119%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Technology
19.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
45.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1349%
Technology
2.4x
+1781%
5Y Avg
48.5x
-6%
Dividend Yield
1.66%
S&P 500
1.88%
-11%
Technology
1.18%
+41%
5Y Avg
1.65%
+1%
| Metric | STRK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg STRK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.0x | 19.1x-95% | 21.7x-95% | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.1x | 25.2x-120% | 27.5x-119% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 19.8x | — |
| Price/Sales | 45.4x | 3.1x+1349% | 2.4x+1781% | 48.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.65% |
STRK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTRK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
STRK generates $7.6B in free cash flow at a 1551.2% margin — returns 1.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$490M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-2853.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2566.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-37.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1551.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-19.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-25.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.7%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
278M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTRK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Reliance on Bitcoin
STRK's value is significantly tied to Bitcoin's price fluctuations. A substantial drop in Bitcoin could impair the company's ability to pay dividends and negatively impact STRK's stock price.
High Risk
Seniority and Capital Structure
As a preferred stock, STRK holders are paid after more senior debt and preferred stock holders in a bankruptcy scenario. This could lead to value impairment or dividend suspensions if the company faces financial distress.
High Risk
Dividend Payments
Although STRK offers an 8% cumulative dividend, there is a risk that Strategy may not have sufficient funds to pay these dividends in cash. The company's financial health and Bitcoin holdings directly influence its ability to meet dividend obligations.
Medium
Market Volatility
STRK is subject to market risk, with prices potentially fluctuating due to economic trends and global events. Such volatility can lead to significant price changes that may affect investor returns.
Medium
Company Performance
Poor performance, including earnings misses or negative news, can lead to a decline in STRK's stock price. Investors should monitor the company's financial results closely.
Medium
Liquidity Risk
While STRK is listed on Nasdaq, it may be harder to sell quickly without affecting the price due to its smaller trading volume. This could pose challenges for investors looking to exit their positions.
Lower
Regulatory Changes
Potential regulatory developments, such as restrictions on certain investments or the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, could impact STRK's demand and value. Investors should stay informed about changes in the regulatory landscape.
Lower
Lack of Diversification
Investing solely in STRK increases exposure to specific risks associated with this security and Strategy Inc. Diversification across different assets or sectors is recommended to mitigate risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STRK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Attractive Fixed Dividend
STRK offers a fixed 8% annual dividend, providing a steady income stream for investors. With a quarterly payment of $2 per share, this translates to $20 quarterly or $80 annually for 10 STRK shares sold at $850, making it appealing in uncertain market conditions.
Downside Protection and Stability
The preferred stock's fixed dividend and position in the capital stack offer principal protection compared to common stock. As STRK's price falls, the dividend yield increases, potentially driving demand and making it a suitable option for cash preservation.
Convertibility into Common Stock (MSTR)
STRK can be converted into MicroStrategy's common stock at a 10:1 ratio if MSTR reaches a $1,000 price target. This feature acts as a perpetual call option on Bitcoin, appealing to institutions bullish on MSTR and Bitcoin.
Strategic Alignment with Bitcoin Accumulation
MicroStrategy uses capital from STRK to acquire more Bitcoin, aligning investors with the company's bullish Bitcoin strategy. As MicroStrategy accumulates Bitcoin, the potential for MSTR's price appreciation increases, benefiting STRK holders.
Capital Efficiency for MicroStrategy
STRK allows MicroStrategy to raise capital for Bitcoin acquisition without significantly increasing debt levels, as preferred stock is classified as equity. This enables the company to pursue its Bitcoin strategy while maintaining a manageable financial load.
Potential for "Equity Layer" Upside
The convertibility of STRK into MSTR common stock provides an "equity layer" that acts as a perpetual call option on Bitcoin. This offers investors exposure to Bitcoin's upside while retaining the income and downside protection of preferred stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STRK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.05
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$65.60
+19.0% from the low
52-Week High
$129.48
-39.7% from the high
1 Month
+8.87%
3 Month
+1.91%
YTD
-6.5%
1 Year
-13.7%
3Y CAGR
-1.2%
5Y CAGR
-0.7%
10Y CAGR
-0.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STRK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.0x
vs 2.5x median
-58% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +38.2% median
-96% below peer median
Net Margin
-2566.2%
vs -1299.7% median
-97% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STR STRK MicroStrategy Incorporated | $21.7B | 1.0x | +1.3% | -2566.2% | — | — |
MST MSTR Strategy Inc | $51.9B | 2.5x | +1.3% | -2566.2% | Buy | +50.3% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.0B | — | +29.5% | — | Buy | +23.8% |
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $9.0B | — | +38.2% | — | Buy | +17.8% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $3.7B | — | +40.2% | -33.2% | Buy | +39.4% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $8.9B | — | +43.0% | — | Buy | +27.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STRK Dividend and Capital Return
STRK returns 1.7% total yield, led by a 1.66% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.66%
Payout Ratio
—
How STRK Splits Its Return
Div 1.66%
Dividend 1.66%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
278M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.24 | — | 0.0% | 1.6% |
FAQ
6 questionsSTRK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) has limited published analyst coverage at this time. Use the scenario targets and valuation multiples on this page as a guide.
02Is MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) stock overvalued in 2026?
STRK trades at 1.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STRK in 2026 are: (1) Reliance on Bitcoin — STRK's value is significantly tied to Bitcoin's price fluctuations. (2) Seniority and Capital Structure — As a preferred stock, STRK holders are paid after more senior debt and preferred stock holders in a bankruptcy scenario. (3) Dividend Payments — Although STRK offers an 8% cumulative dividend, there is a risk that Strategy may not have sufficient funds to pay these dividends in cash. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is MicroStrategy Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STRK will report consensus revenue of $484M (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.72 (+178.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $490M in revenue.
05When does MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for STRK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does MicroStrategy Incorporated generate?
MicroStrategy Incorporated (STRK) generated $7.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1551.2%. STRK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).