Upside case
Bull case
$829+543.0%
WDAY would need investors to value it at roughly 79x earnings — about 67x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Workday, Inc. (WDAY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
80
analysts
45 bullish · 1 bearish · 80 covering WDAY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
45
Hold
34
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$198
+53.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $829
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
80
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $33.9B
WDAY price targets
Three scenarios for where WDAY stock could go
Current
~$129
Confidence
76 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $129
Base
$416
Bull
$829
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$416+222.6%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Workday, Inc.
WDAY · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationJanuary year-end
Workday is a leading provider of enterprise cloud applications for human capital management and financial management. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its software-as-a-service platform — with HCM solutions representing the largest segment — along with professional services for implementation and support. The company's competitive advantage lies in its unified data architecture that connects HR and finance systems, creating switching costs and network effects within large enterprise customers.
Market Cap
$33.9B
Revenue TTM
$9.6B
Net Income TTM
$693M
Net Margin
7.3%
WDAY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.23/$2.01
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.11
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.32/$2.17
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.32
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.23/$2.01 | +10.9% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.21/$2.11 | +4.7% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.32/$2.17 | +6.9% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.47/$2.32 | +6.5% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.8B
+12.7% YoY
FY2
$12.2B
+13.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.99
+203.8% YoY
FY2
$8.32
+4.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.8B
FCF Margin: 29.1%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.49
Expected Revenue
$2.5B
WDAY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WDAY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription Services
91.4%
+16.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
75.0%
+16.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription Services is the largest disclosed segment at 91.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 16.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 75.0%, up 16.0% YoY.
WDAY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $400 — implies +215.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
215.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WDAY
50.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+99% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
WDAY
50.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+87% premium
vs WDAY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.0x
vs
5Y Average
86.1x
42% discount
Forward PE
12.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-36%
Technology
22.1x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+99%
Technology
26.7x
+87%
5Y Avg
86.1x
-42%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+59%
Technology
17.5x
+39%
5Y Avg
65.5x
-63%
Price/FCF
12.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-42%
Technology
19.5x
-37%
5Y Avg
34.3x
-64%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+14%
Technology
2.4x
+45%
5Y Avg
8.8x
-59%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | WDAY | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg WDAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.3x | 19.1x-36% | 22.1x-44% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.0x | 25.1x+99% | 26.7x+87% | 86.1x-42% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.3x | 15.2x+59% | 17.5x+39% | 65.5x-63% |
| Price/FCF | 12.2x | 21.1x-42% | 19.5x-37% | 34.3x-64% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+14% | 2.4x+45% | 8.8x-59% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
WDAY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWDAY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WDAY generates $2.8B in free cash flow at a 29.1% margin — returns 8.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
75.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$667M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
8.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
263M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWDAY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Pressure
Workday trades at a high forward P/E ratio that assumes continued double‑digit revenue growth. Any slowdown in growth or margin erosion could quickly erode the multiple and compress earnings.
High Risk
Economic Downturn Risk
Enterprise IT spending is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. A broad economic downturn could sharply reduce Workday’s revenues and profitability, especially given its heavy reliance on large enterprise customers.
High Risk
Competitive Threats
Rivals such as SAP and Oracle are investing heavily in cloud and AI capabilities. New entrants could erode Workday’s market share in HCM and financial management, pressuring pricing and growth.
Medium
AI Monetization Execution
Scaling AI monetization and integrating AI into the platform requires flawless execution. Failure to deliver on AI capabilities could undermine product differentiation and revenue growth.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Exposure
Workday faces regulatory probes, labor disputes, tax claims, and IP lawsuits. Adverse outcomes could damage its financial condition, reputation, and operational focus.
Medium
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of revenue comes from a few large enterprise customers. Delays or reductions in their spending could materially impact Workday’s top line.
Lower
Stock Price Volatility
Workday’s stock has historically been volatile, reacting to guidance, market expectations, and broader economic conditions. Sharp price swings can affect investor sentiment and capital costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WDAY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Steady Subscription Revenue Growth
Workday’s subscription revenues grew 14.6% year‑over‑year in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, underscoring its solid top‑line momentum. This consistent growth trajectory reinforces the company’s leadership in the HCM and FINS platforms.
AI‑Driven Product Expansion
The firm has integrated AI across its suite, with the Paradox acquisition adding AI‑related products that contribute to ARR growth. This AI focus is expected to decouple Workday’s growth from traditional employment trends, positioning it for future scalability.
International Market Momentum
Workday’s international markets are showing strong momentum, helping offset any softness in the U.S. market. Strategic payroll partnerships and expanding presence in the mid‑market segment further fuel this global growth.
Robust Free Cash Flow Outlook
Management projects a 15% CAGR in free cash flow and a 30% FCF margin by FY27, supported by a low debt‑to‑equity ratio. Active share repurchases are accelerating FCF per share growth.
Workday Go Mid‑Market Penetration
The Workday Go offering, designed for faster deployment, is gaining traction in the mid‑market segment. This product expands the company’s reach beyond large enterprises into smaller, growth‑oriented customers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WDAY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$128.88
52W Range Position
11%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$110.39
+16.7% from the low
52-Week High
$276.00
-53.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.65%
3 Month
-18.82%
YTD
-37.4%
1 Year
-48.1%
3Y CAGR
-10.8%
5Y CAGR
-11.4%
10Y CAGR
+6.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WDAY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.3x
vs 22.1x median
-44% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.7%
vs +9.4% median
+35% above peer median
Net Margin
7.3%
vs 21.6% median
-66% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WDA WDAY Workday, Inc. | $33.9B | 12.3x | +12.7% | 7.3% | Buy | +53.6% |
SAP SAP SAP SE | $200.9B | 23.5x | +8.8% | 19.1% | Buy | +127.2% |
ORC ORCL Oracle Corporation | $533.2B | 24.8x | +6.4% | 25.3% | Buy | +38.7% |
NOW NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $95.3B | 22.1x | +18.0% | 12.6% | Buy | +64.7% |
INT INTU Intuit Inc. | $111.2B | 17.2x | +9.4% | 21.6% | Buy | +67.4% |
PAY PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $7.4B | 12.5x | +13.2% | 22.6% | Hold | +13.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WDAY Dividend and Capital Return
WDAY returns 8.5% annually — null% through dividends and 8.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
8.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
263M
At 8.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsWDAY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Workday, Inc. (WDAY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Workday, Inc. (WDAY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 80 analysts covering the stock, 45 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $198, implying +53.6% from the current price of $129.
02What is the WDAY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WDAY is $198 based on 80 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $298 (+131.2% from today), and the low-end target is $125 (-3.0%). The base case model target is $416.
03Is Workday, Inc. (WDAY) stock overvalued in 2026?
WDAY trades at 12.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Workday, Inc. (WDAY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WDAY in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Pressure — Workday trades at a high forward P/E ratio that assumes continued double‑digit revenue growth. (2) Economic Downturn Risk — Enterprise IT spending is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. (3) Competitive Threats — Rivals such as SAP and Oracle are investing heavily in cloud and AI capabilities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Workday, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WDAY will report consensus revenue of $10.8B (+12.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.99 (+203.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.2B in revenue.
06When does Workday, Inc. (WDAY) report its next earnings?
Workday, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $2.49 and revenue of $2.5B. Over recent quarters, WDAY has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Workday, Inc. generate?
Workday, Inc. (WDAY) generated $2.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.1%. WDAY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.9B TTM).