Upside case
Bull case
$251+72.9%
TFII would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
TFI International Inc. (TFII) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering TFII
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$147
+1.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$120 – $251
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.9B
TFII price targets
Three scenarios for where TFII stock could go
Current
~$145
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $145
Bear
$120
Base
$191
Bull
$251
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$191+31.3%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$120-17.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push TFII down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TFI International Inc.
TFII · NYSEIndustrialsTruckingDecember year-end
TFI International is a North American transportation and logistics company operating across multiple freight segments. It generates revenue through its Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload, Truckload, and Logistics segments — with the Truckload segment typically being the largest contributor. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified multi-segment model and extensive North American network, which provides operational flexibility and cross-selling opportunities across different freight markets.
Market Cap
$11.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.6B
Net Income TTM
$339M
Net Margin
3.9%
TFII Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.24
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.20/$1.19
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.09/$0.85
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.69/$0.59
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.24 | +8.1% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.20/$1.19 | +0.8% | $1.9B/$1.4B | +42.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09/$0.85 | +28.2% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.69/$0.59 | +16.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.1B
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$9.4B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.17
+25.4% YoY
FY2
$6.19
+19.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$778M
FCF Margin: 9.0%
Next Earnings
July 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.55
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
TFII beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TFII Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $342 — implies +135.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
135.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TFII
28.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+14% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
TFII
28.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+9% premium
vs TFII 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.0x
vs
5Y Average
19.2x
+46% premium
Forward PE
27.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+45%
Industrials
21.2x
+29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+14%
Industrials
25.6x
+9%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+46%
PEG Ratio
2.72x
S&P 500
1.66x
+64%
Industrials
1.65x
+65%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-37%
Industrials
13.9x
-31%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+3%
Price/FCF
12.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-41%
Industrials
20.0x
-39%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-22%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-65%
Industrials
1.6x
-31%
5Y Avg
1.2x
-13%
Dividend Yield
1.74%
S&P 500
1.91%
-9%
Industrials
1.21%
+43%
5Y Avg
1.34%
+30%
| Metric | TFII | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg TFII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.3x | 18.8x+45% | 21.2x+29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.0x | 24.4x+14% | 25.6x | 19.2x+46% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.72x | 1.66x+64% | 1.65x+65% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5x | 15.2x-37% | 13.9x-31% | 9.2x |
| Price/FCF | 12.1x | 20.7x-41% | 20.0x-39% | 15.5x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-65% | 1.6x-31% | 1.2x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.34% |
TFII trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTFII Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TFII generates $778M in free cash flow at a 9.0% margin — returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$778M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$210M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
~4.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
2.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$339M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.53
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
48.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
82M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTFII Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory risks
The company operates in a heavily regulated industry, and changes in transportation or environmental policies could impact operations.
Medium
Economic sensitivity
TFI's performance is tied to economic cycles, with downturns potentially reducing demand for transportation and logistics services.
High Risk
Competitive pressures
The transportation and logistics sector is highly competitive, which could pressure margins and market share.
Medium
Dividend sustainability
There are concerns about the company's ability to maintain or grow its dividend amid operational challenges.
Lower
Investor sentiment
Negative market perceptions or analyst downgrades could lead to stock price volatility.
Medium
Recovery uncertainty
The company's potential for recovery after recent struggles remains uncertain, posing risks for investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TFII Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
North American logistics leader
TFI is a recognized leader in transportation and logistics across North America, serving a diverse customer base in the US and Canada.
Strong valuation metrics
TFII's trailing P/E of 27.84 and forward P/E of 20.53 suggest reasonable valuation and potential growth, as per Yahoo Finance data.
Bullish research coverage
Guardian Research's Substack highlights a bullish thesis on TFII, indicating positive sentiment among analysts.
Strategic industry positioning
TFI shapes policy and provides regulatory resources, reinforcing its influence and adaptability in the transportation sector.
Transparent performance insights
The company offers comprehensive presentations and reports, enabling investors to track its strategic initiatives and performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TFII Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$145.40
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.63
+80.3% from the low
52-Week High
$167.69
-13.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.11%
3 Month
+44.45%
YTD
+36.4%
1 Year
+63.8%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
+10.4%
10Y CAGR
+22.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TFII vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.3x
vs 40.5x median
-33% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.7%
vs +7.0% median
-19% below peer median
Net Margin
3.9%
vs 4.2% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.9B | 27.3x | +5.7% | 3.9% | Buy | +1.3% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $46.1B | 40.5x | +3.4% | 18.6% | Hold | -1.6% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $11.6B | 38.3x | +7.2% | 7.8% | Buy | +3.1% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.4B | 40.5x | +7.4% | 4.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
ARC ARCB ArcBest Corporation | $3.2B | 24.4x | +1.8% | 1.4% | Buy | -12.5% |
WER WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $2.4B | 42.8x | +7.0% | -0.5% | Hold | -2.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TFII Dividend and Capital Return
TFII returns capital mainly through $339M/year in buybacks (2.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.74% dividend — combining for 4.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.8%
Dividend Yield
1.74%
Payout Ratio
48.7%
How TFII Splits Its Return
Div 1.74%
Buyback 2.8%
Dividend 1.74%Buybacks 2.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.53
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.2%
5Y Div CAGR
18.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$339M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
82M
At 2.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.82 | +10.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% |
| 2024 | $1.65 | +13.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $1.45 | +25.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $1.16 | +20.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsTFII Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TFI International Inc. (TFII) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TFI International Inc. (TFII) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $147, implying +1.3% from the current price of $145. The bear case scenario is $120 and the bull case is $251.
02What is the TFII stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TFII is $147 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $182 (+25.2% from today), and the low-end target is $105 (-27.8%). The base case model target is $191.
03Is TFI International Inc. (TFII) stock overvalued in 2026?
TFII trades at 27.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TFI International Inc. (TFII) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TFII in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory risks — The company operates in a heavily regulated industry, and changes in transportation or environmental policies could impact operations. (2) Competitive pressures — The transportation and logistics sector is highly competitive, which could pressure margins and market share. (3) Economic sensitivity — TFI's performance is tied to economic cycles, with downturns potentially reducing demand for transportation and logistics services. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TFI International Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TFII will report consensus revenue of $9.1B (+5.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.17 (+25.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.4B in revenue.
06When does TFI International Inc. (TFII) report its next earnings?
TFI International Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-27. Consensus expects EPS of $1.55 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, TFII has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does TFI International Inc. generate?
TFI International Inc. (TFII) generated $778M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.0%. TFII returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($339M TTM).