Upside case
Bull case
$427+206.5%
TFII would need investors to value it at roughly 83x earnings — about 56x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TFI International Inc. (TFII) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering TFII
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$137
-1.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$86 – $427
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.4B
TFII price targets
Three scenarios for where TFII stock could go
Current
~$139
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $139
Bear
$86
Base
$188
Bull
$427
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$188+34.8%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$86-38.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push TFII down roughly 39% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TFI International Inc.
TFII · NYSEIndustrialsTruckingDecember year-end
TFI International is a North American transportation and logistics company operating across multiple freight segments. It generates revenue through its Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload, Truckload, and Logistics segments — with the Truckload segment typically being the largest contributor. The company's competitive advantage lies in its diversified multi-segment model and extensive North American network, which provides operational flexibility and cross-selling opportunities across different freight markets.
Market Cap
$11.4B
Revenue TTM
$8.6B
Net Income TTM
$339M
Net Margin
3.9%
TFII Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.24
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.20/$1.19
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.09/$0.85
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.69/$0.59
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.24 | +8.1% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.20/$1.19 | +0.8% | $1.9B/$1.4B | +42.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09/$0.85 | +28.2% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.69/$0.59 | +16.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +2.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.0B
+15.3% YoY
FY2
$12.1B
+21.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.44
+32.0% YoY
FY2
$7.20
+32.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$778M
FCF Margin: 9.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TFII beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TFII Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $246 — implies +72.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
72.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TFII
26.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+6% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
TFII
26.8x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs TFII 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.8x
vs
5Y Average
19.2x
+40% premium
Forward PE
26.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+41%
Industrials
20.8x
+29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+6%
Industrials
25.9x
+3%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+40%
PEG Ratio
2.61x
S&P 500
1.74x
+50%
Industrials
1.64x
+59%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-39%
Industrials
13.7x
-33%
5Y Avg
9.2x
-0%
Price/FCF
11.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-45%
Industrials
21.0x
-45%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-25%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-67%
Industrials
1.6x
-35%
5Y Avg
1.2x
-17%
Dividend Yield
1.82%
S&P 500
1.87%
-3%
Industrials
1.25%
+46%
5Y Avg
1.34%
+36%
| Metric | TFII | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg TFII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.9x | 19.1x+41% | 20.8x+29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.8x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 19.2x+40% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.61x | 1.74x+50% | 1.64x+59% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2x | 15.2x-39% | 13.7x-33% | 9.2x |
| Price/FCF | 11.6x | 21.3x-45% | 21.0x-45% | 15.5x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-67% | 1.6x-35% | 1.2x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.82% | 1.87% | 1.25% | 1.34% |
TFII trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTFII Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TFII generates $778M in free cash flow at a 9.0% margin — returns 4.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$778M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$210M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
~4.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.8%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
3.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$339M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.53
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
48.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
82M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTFII Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Freight Demand Weakness
Ongoing softness in freight demand, particularly in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment, can significantly impact volumes and profitability. A decline in demand could lead to reduced revenues and increased operational inefficiencies.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
General economic conditions affecting the company and its customers can lead to reduced demand for transportation services. Economic downturns can severely impact revenue streams and profitability.
High Risk
Margin Compression
Significant multi-year margin compression has been observed, particularly in the LTL segment. This trend poses a risk to profitability and could lead to further financial strain if not addressed.
High Risk
CEO Transition
Leadership transition risk exists with the retirement of CEO Alain Bédard. Such changes can lead to uncertainty in strategic direction and operational execution.
Medium
Fuel Price Volatility
Fluctuations in fuel prices can affect cost structures, impacting overall profitability. Although the company has mechanisms to recover some costs, sustained high fuel prices could pressure margins.
Medium
Elevated P/E Ratio
The stock's P/E ratio is considered high compared to historical levels and industry peers, suggesting it may be overvalued. This could lead to a correction if market sentiment shifts.
Medium
LTL Segment Inefficiencies
Operational inefficiencies in the LTL segment can continue to impact profitability. Addressing these inefficiencies is crucial for improving financial performance.
Lower
Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical tensions can affect cost structures and operational stability. While this risk is present, its immediate impact on the company's financials may be limited.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TFII Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversified Business Segments
TFI International operates across Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics segments. This diversification allows the company to optimize its revenue mix, cross-sell services, and mitigate risks associated with any single segment.
Operational Improvements and Efficiency
Bulls anticipate efficiency gains through technology adoption, asset-light strategies, and improved service levels. The LTL segment has shown quarter-over-quarter improvements in on-time delivery and reductions in missed pickups, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.
Growth Potential
The company is expected to achieve above-market top-line growth, driven by acquisitions like the Daseke truckload acquisition and expansion in higher-growth logistics services. Optimism for a rebound in earnings in 2026 is led by the logistics, truckload, and U.S. LTL segments.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
Management has a history of generating meaningful free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Notably, dividends have been increased for 10 consecutive years.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts recommend a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, with several raising their price targets following recent earnings reports. For instance, Bank of America raised its price objective to $161.00, and Morgan Stanley increased its target to $175.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TFII Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$139.27
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.27
+73.5% from the low
52-Week High
$149.09
-6.6% from the high
1 Month
+22.16%
3 Month
+14.27%
YTD
+30.7%
1 Year
+72.7%
3Y CAGR
+9.5%
5Y CAGR
+9.7%
10Y CAGR
+22.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TFII vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.9x
vs 39.8x median
-32% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.3%
vs +3.3% median
+365% above peer median
Net Margin
3.9%
vs 4.2% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.4B | 26.9x | +15.3% | 3.9% | Buy | -1.6% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $41.8B | 38.2x | +0.3% | 18.6% | Hold | +3.8% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $12.0B | 42.3x | +4.5% | 7.8% | Buy | -5.9% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
ARC ARCB ArcBest Corporation | $2.7B | 23.6x | -0.1% | 1.4% | Buy | -3.8% |
WER WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $2.2B | 39.8x | +4.8% | -0.5% | Hold | -0.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TFII Dividend and Capital Return
TFII returns capital mainly through $339M/year in buybacks (3.0% buyback yield), with a modest 1.82% dividend — combining for 4.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.0%
Dividend Yield
1.82%
Payout Ratio
48.7%
How TFII Splits Its Return
Div 1.82%
Buyback 3.0%
Dividend 1.82%Buybacks 3.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.53
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.2%
5Y Div CAGR
18.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$339M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
82M
At 3.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.82 | +10.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% |
| 2024 | $1.65 | +13.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $1.45 | +25.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $1.16 | +20.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsTFII Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TFI International Inc. (TFII) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TFI International Inc. (TFII) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $137, implying -1.6% from the current price of $139. The bear case scenario is $86 and the bull case is $427.
02What is the TFII stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TFII is $137 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $175 (+25.7% from today), and the low-end target is $105 (-24.6%). The base case model target is $188.
03Is TFI International Inc. (TFII) stock overvalued in 2026?
TFII trades at 26.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TFI International Inc. (TFII) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TFII in 2026 are: (1) Freight Demand Weakness — Ongoing softness in freight demand, particularly in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment, can significantly impact volumes and profitability. (2) Economic Downturns — General economic conditions affecting the company and its customers can lead to reduced demand for transportation services. (3) Margin Compression — Significant multi-year margin compression has been observed, particularly in the LTL segment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TFI International Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TFII will report consensus revenue of $10.0B (+15.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.44 (+32.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.1B in revenue.
06When does TFI International Inc. (TFII) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TFII is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TFI International Inc. generate?
TFI International Inc. (TFII) generated $778M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.0%. TFII returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($339M TTM).