Upside case
Bull case
$1073+138.7%
SAIA would need investors to value it at roughly 101x earnings — about 59x more generous than today's 42x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 covering SAIA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$423
-5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$266 – $1073
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
42.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.0B
SAIA price targets
Three scenarios for where SAIA stock could go
Current
~$449
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $449
Bear
$266
Base
$564
Bull
$1073
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$564+25.6%
At 53x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$266-40.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 17x multiple contraction could push SAIA down roughly 41% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Saia, Inc.
SAIA · NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingDecember year-end
Saia is a regional less-than-truckload carrier that transports freight shipments typically between 400 and 10,000 pounds across North America. It generates revenue primarily from LTL shipping services — which account for the vast majority of its income — supplemented by truckload, expedited, and logistics offerings. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dense regional network of owned facilities and equipment, allowing for efficient freight handling and reliable service coverage.
Market Cap
$12.0B
Revenue TTM
$3.3B
Net Income TTM
$255M
Net Margin
7.8%
SAIA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.39
Revenue
$817M/$820M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.81/$2.52
Revenue
$840M/$826M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.77/$1.90
Revenue
$790M/$774M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.86/$1.82
Revenue
$806M/$789M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.67/$2.39 | +11.7% | $817M/$820M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.81/$2.52 | +11.5% | $840M/$826M | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.77/$1.90 | -6.8% | $790M/$774M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.86/$1.82 | +2.2% | $806M/$789M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.61
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$11.95
+12.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$261M
FCF Margin: 8.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SAIA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SAIA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $303 — implies -31.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SAIA
47.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+87% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
SAIA
47.2x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+82% premium
vs SAIA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
47.2x
vs
5Y Average
30.5x
+55% premium
Forward PE
42.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+122%
Industrials
20.8x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
47.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+87%
Industrials
25.9x
+82%
5Y Avg
30.5x
+55%
PEG Ratio
3.67x
S&P 500
1.75x
+110%
Industrials
1.59x
+131%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+35%
Industrials
13.9x
+48%
5Y Avg
15.8x
+30%
Price/FCF
438.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1956%
Industrials
20.6x
+2025%
5Y Avg
77.0x
+470%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+18%
Industrials
1.6x
+133%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+12%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.24%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SAIA | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg SAIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 42.3x | 19.1x+122% | 20.8x+103% | — |
| Trailing PE | 47.2x | 25.2x+87% | 25.9x+82% | 30.5x+55% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.67x | 1.75x+110% | 1.59x+131% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6x | 15.3x+35% | 13.9x+48% | 15.8x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 438.5x | 21.3x+1956% | 20.6x+2025% | 77.0x+470% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+18% | 1.6x+133% | 3.3x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.24% | — |
SAIA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSAIA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SAIA generates $261M in free cash flow at a 8.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$261M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$20M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$398M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
27M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSAIA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Increased Operating Costs
Saia is vulnerable to rising operational costs, particularly in wages, insurance, claims, and depreciation. Increased self-insurance costs related to prior-year accidents have already impacted profitability.
High Risk
Demand Softness
A noticeable drop in tonnage and shipments indicates a weakening demand environment, which could adversely affect earnings per share forecasts. Prolonged freight weakness and yield pressures are significant concerns.
High Risk
Economic Conditions
General economic conditions, including uncertain macroeconomic environments, can significantly impact shipment volumes and seasonal trends. Weak consumer spending and trade uncertainty pose substantial risks to Saia's operations.
Medium
Fuel Costs
Fluctuations in diesel fuel prices can adversely affect profitability if Saia's pricing strategies do not adequately account for these changes. This risk is particularly pronounced given the volatility in fuel markets.
Medium
Insurance and Claims
Ongoing expenses related to insurance and claims, including personal injury, cargo loss, and workers' compensation, can significantly reduce earnings and introduce volatility into Saia's financial performance.
Medium
Competition and Pricing Pressure
The less-than-truckload (LTL) industry is facing increased competition and pricing pressure, which could erode Saia's market share and profitability. This competitive landscape requires constant strategic adjustments.
Lower
Regulatory Factors
Compliance with various regulations, such as hours-of-service, licensing, engine emissions, and safety initiatives, is an ongoing consideration for Saia. While these factors are manageable, they can introduce operational complexities.
Lower
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Investments in bonds are subject to risks related to interest rates, which can affect bond prices. While this risk is present, it is less impactful compared to operational and market risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SAIA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Volume Growth and Margin Improvement
Saia has demonstrated strong performance in volume growth and margin expansion, achieving operating ratios below 95%. Facilities have seen sequential margin increases, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Network Expansion
The company is strategically expanding its national terminal network, which is expected to unlock cost efficiencies and drive higher shipment volumes. This densification of the network will lead to top-line revenue growth and improved operating margins.
Revenue Growth and Contract Renewals
Saia has achieved healthy contract renewals with average growth exceeding 4%, bolstering revenue generation and increasing market share in the less-than-truckload (LTL) sector. Revenue has also slightly beaten analyst expectations in recent quarters.
Pricing Power
Despite a soft market, Saia has shown pricing power, with contractual renewals accelerating and demonstrating the ability to implement rate increases. This pricing strength is crucial for maintaining profitability in a competitive environment.
Operational Efficiency
The company is focused on improving its operating ratio, with management aiming for 100-200 basis points of improvement in the full year. This commitment to operational efficiency is expected to enhance profitability and shareholder value.
Financial Strength
Saia has a robust liquidity position and has been reducing its debt, ensuring financial stability. Its operating cash inflow is sufficient to cover capital expenditures, positioning the company well for future growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SAIA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$449.40
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$248.37
+80.9% from the low
52-Week High
$457.99
-1.9% from the high
1 Month
+20.79%
3 Month
+8.17%
YTD
+33.3%
1 Year
+76.6%
3Y CAGR
+16.0%
5Y CAGR
+13.7%
10Y CAGR
+32.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SAIA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
42.3x
vs 38.2x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +3.3% median
+37% above peer median
Net Margin
7.8%
vs 3.9% median
+100% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $12.0B | 42.3x | +4.5% | 7.8% | Buy | -5.9% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $41.8B | 38.2x | +0.3% | 18.6% | Hold | +3.8% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
ARC ARCB ArcBest Corporation | $2.7B | 23.6x | -0.1% | 1.4% | Buy | -3.8% |
WER WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $2.2B | 39.8x | +4.8% | -0.5% | Hold | -0.8% |
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.4B | 26.9x | +15.3% | 3.9% | Buy | -1.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SAIA Dividend and Capital Return
SAIA does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9M
Estimated Shares Retired
19.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
27M
FAQ
7 questionsSAIA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $423, implying -5.9% from the current price of $449. The bear case scenario is $266 and the bull case is $1073.
02What is the SAIA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SAIA is $423 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+11.3% from today), and the low-end target is $262 (-41.7%). The base case model target is $564.
03Is Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock overvalued in 2026?
SAIA trades at 42.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SAIA in 2026 are: (1) Increased Operating Costs — Saia is vulnerable to rising operational costs, particularly in wages, insurance, claims, and depreciation. (2) Demand Softness — A noticeable drop in tonnage and shipments indicates a weakening demand environment, which could adversely affect earnings per share forecasts. (3) Economic Conditions — General economic conditions, including uncertain macroeconomic environments, can significantly impact shipment volumes and seasonal trends. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Saia, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SAIA will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.61 (+11.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does Saia, Inc. (SAIA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SAIA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Saia, Inc. generate?
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) generated $261M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.0%. SAIA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($9M TTM).