Upside case
Bull case
$803+84.4%
SAIA would need investors to value it at roughly 71x earnings — about 32x more generous than today's 38x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 covering SAIA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$449
+3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$384 – $803
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.6B
SAIA price targets
Three scenarios for where SAIA stock could go
Current
~$435
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $435
Bear
$384
Base
$609
Bull
$803
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$609+40.0%
At 54x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$384-11.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push SAIA down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Saia, Inc.
SAIA · NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingDecember year-end
Saia is a regional less-than-truckload carrier that transports freight shipments typically between 400 and 10,000 pounds across North America. It generates revenue primarily from LTL shipping services — which account for the vast majority of its income — supplemented by truckload, expedited, and logistics offerings. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dense regional network of owned facilities and equipment, allowing for efficient freight handling and reliable service coverage.
Market Cap
$11.6B
Revenue TTM
$3.3B
Net Income TTM
$255M
Net Margin
7.8%
SAIA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.39
Revenue
$817M/$820M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.81/$2.52
Revenue
$840M/$826M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.77/$1.90
Revenue
$790M/$774M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.86/$1.82
Revenue
$806M/$789M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.67/$2.39 | +11.7% | $817M/$820M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.81/$2.52 | +11.5% | $840M/$826M | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.77/$1.90 | -6.8% | $790M/$774M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.86/$1.82 | +2.2% | $806M/$789M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.5B
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$3.7B
+6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.38
+19.5% YoY
FY2
$13.54
+19.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$261M
FCF Margin: 8.0%
Next Earnings
July 24, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.28
Expected Revenue
$935M
SAIA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SAIA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $377 — implies -13.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SAIA
45.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+87% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
SAIA
45.7x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+79% premium
vs SAIA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
45.7x
vs
5Y Average
30.5x
+50% premium
Forward PE
38.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+104%
Industrials
21.2x
+81%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
45.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+87%
Industrials
25.6x
+79%
5Y Avg
30.5x
+50%
PEG Ratio
3.56x
S&P 500
1.66x
+114%
Industrials
1.65x
+116%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+31%
Industrials
13.9x
+44%
5Y Avg
15.8x
+26%
Price/FCF
424.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1951%
Industrials
20.0x
+2018%
5Y Avg
77.0x
+452%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+16%
Industrials
1.6x
+130%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+9%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SAIA | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg SAIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.3x | 18.8x+104% | 21.2x+81% | — |
| Trailing PE | 45.7x | 24.4x+87% | 25.6x+79% | 30.5x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.56x | 1.66x+114% | 1.65x+116% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.0x | 15.2x+31% | 13.9x+44% | 15.8x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 424.5x | 20.7x+1951% | 20.0x+2018% | 77.0x+452% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+16% | 1.6x+130% | 3.3x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
SAIA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSAIA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SAIA generates $261M in free cash flow at a 8.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$261M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$20M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$398M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$9M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
27M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSAIA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Analyst price target downside
The average 1-year stock price forecast is 2.56% lower than the current stock price, with the lowest target at $265 (-41.92%).
High Risk
Numerous disclosed risk factors
Saia disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and financial challenges.
Medium
Market consensus downside
The consensus target price implies a -3.8% downside, reflecting bearish sentiment among some analysts.
Lower
Industry competition risks
As one of the 10 largest less-than-truckload carriers, Saia faces intense competition in a fragmented market.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SAIA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Moderate moat advantage
Saia Inc (SAIA) is noted for having a moderate moat, which suggests a competitive advantage that can sustain profitability over time.
Buy rating and target
Analysts have given Saia, Inc. (SAIA) a Buy rating with a consensus target price of $449, indicating potential upside despite near-term challenges.
Network quality focus
The investment thesis for Saia hinges on its network quality and disciplined execution, rather than rapid growth, which is seen as a key strength.
Detailed analysis available
A comprehensive report on Saia (SAIA) is available, offering in-depth analysis for investors considering a bullish stance on the stock.
Revenue slightly ahead
Saia's latest quarter showed revenue slightly ahead of expectations, reinforcing the company's ability to perform despite margin pressures.
Long-term outlook
A full thesis on Saia includes financials, valuation, and a long-term outlook for 2026-2031, providing a bullish perspective for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SAIA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$435.12
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$249.32
+74.5% from the low
52-Week High
$494.71
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
-5.06%
3 Month
+34.87%
YTD
+29.1%
1 Year
+67.0%
3Y CAGR
+12.4%
5Y CAGR
+16.5%
10Y CAGR
+32.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SAIA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.3x
vs 40.5x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
vs +5.7% median
+27% above peer median
Net Margin
7.8%
vs 3.9% median
+100% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $11.6B | 38.3x | +7.2% | 7.8% | Buy | +3.1% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $46.1B | 40.5x | +3.4% | 18.6% | Hold | -1.6% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.4B | 40.5x | +7.4% | 4.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
ARC ARCB ArcBest Corporation | $3.2B | 24.4x | +1.8% | 1.4% | Buy | -12.5% |
WER WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $2.4B | 42.8x | +7.0% | -0.5% | Hold | -2.4% |
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.9B | 27.3x | +5.7% | 3.9% | Buy | +1.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SAIA Dividend and Capital Return
SAIA does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$9M
Estimated Shares Retired
19.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
27M
FAQ
7 questionsSAIA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $449, implying +3.1% from the current price of $435. The bear case scenario is $384 and the bull case is $803.
02What is the SAIA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SAIA is $449 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+14.9% from today), and the low-end target is $265 (-39.1%). The base case model target is $609.
03Is Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock overvalued in 2026?
SAIA trades at 38.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SAIA in 2026 are: (1) Numerous disclosed risk factors — Saia disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and financial challenges. (2) Analyst price target downside — The average 1-year stock price forecast is 2. (3) Market consensus downside — The consensus target price implies a -3. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Saia, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SAIA will report consensus revenue of $3.5B (+7.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.38 (+19.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.7B in revenue.
06When does Saia, Inc. (SAIA) report its next earnings?
Saia, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-24. Consensus expects EPS of $3.28 and revenue of $935M. Over recent quarters, SAIA has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Saia, Inc. generate?
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) generated $261M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.0%. SAIA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($9M TTM).